PGA Expert Picks: 2023 The American Express Predictions & Best Bets

The PGA Tour is heading to the PGA WEST TPC Stadium Course in La Quinta, Cailfornia for The American Express on Thursday, January 19. Check out our PGA best bets in a field that includes Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. Rahm already won a tournament this season, as he took home the Sentry Tournament of Champions after a masterful final round. Now, he'll try to make it two wins in the last three tournaments, and our model certainly isn't ruling out that possibility. Make sure you come to Dimers all golf season, as we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence. 

RELATED: Check out our Dimers golf player rankings

PGA Tour Win Probabilities

2023 The American Express

Look for the 🔥 below, as that indicates a spot where the predictive analytics model has found value against the sportsbooks. To make things easy for you, we even list the best PGA Golf bets for the 2023 The American Express, down below.

PLAYER	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Jon Rahm	10.1%	31.4%	47.8%
Scottie Scheffler	9.1%	29.9%	44.3%
Tony Finau	9.0%	30.2%	45.6%
Patrick Cantlay	8.3%	29.2%	43.5%
Xander Schauffele	7.6%	28.6%	43.7%
Will Zalatoris	5.8%	23.6%	37.7%
Cameron Young	3.4%	15.5%	25.7%
Sungjae Im	3.0%	14.1%	25.7%
Brian Harman	2.5%	12.4%	23.5%
Aaron Wise	2.4%	13.8%	24.9%

PGA Tour Golf Best Bets

The American Express

Tony Finau (+1200 at DraftKings) 

While Finau is getting the fourth-best odds of winning this tournament — behind Rahm, Scheffler and Cantlay — our model gives him the third-best chance of winning this thing. And after seeing the 33-year-old shoot a -21 to tie for seventh at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, it's easy to see he's in good form to start 2023. 

Finau has also played this course well in the past, as he came in fourth here in 2021 and was tied for 14th a year before that. Considering he has only gotten better since then, it's hard not to like him to win this event — especially at these odds. There are no holes in Finau's game. 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, Tony Finau is a 9.1% chance to win The American Express, a 30.2% chance to finish Top-5 and a 45.6% chance of finishing Top-10.

ALSO: Our PGA projections can give you head-to-head matchup predictions

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Xander Schauffele (+1900 at FanDuel) 

We haven't yet seen Schauffele in 2023, as he had to withdraw from the Sentry Tournament of Champions. But the 29-year-old, who is ranked fifth in our Dimers Golf Rankings, appears to be healthy heading into this event in California. And this course plays perfectly into his style of play. 

PGA WEST strongly favors sharp iron players and Schauffele is definitely that. He's always a guy that will be up there in strokes gained because of his elite ability to hit irons, and we're expecting that to give him a great chance to win this week! 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, Xander Schauffele is a 7.7% chance to win The American Express, a 28.6% chance to finish Top-5 and a 43.7% chance of finishing Top-10.

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Aaron Wise (+3500 at DraftKings) 

Wise is a player that is seemingly a sleeper to win at every single event, but it's pretty understandable. He is consistently a threat to shoot really low numbers, and it's only a matter of time before he truly breaks out. 

At +3500 odds, it's worth throwing a little something on Wise to win The American Express. Our model suggests he has the 10th-best chance of taking this event, but he isn't being priced that way. That makes him a great value here. 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, Aaron Wise is a 2.4% chance to win The American Express, a 13.8% chance to finish Top-5 and a 24.9% chance of finishing Top-10.