PGA Expert Picks: 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Predictions & Best Bets

The PGA Tour rolls on with the Farmers Insurance Open at legendary Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California on Wednesday, January 25. Jon Rahm is a significant +450 favorite to win this event, but is he worth playing at those odds? Find out with our expert picks for a tournament that also includes Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa. Also, make sure you come to Dimers all golf season, as we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

We will note that Rahm has won each of the two tournaments he has played since the start of 2023. And over those two events, the star shot a combined -54. What he has done is undeniably historic, so we understand why he's priced the way he is. And our model gives him the best chance of anyone to win this tournament. Still, it's hard to justify playing somebody at his price.  

RELATED: Check out our Dimers golf player rankings

PGA Tour Win Probabilities

2023 Farmers Insurance Open

Look for the 🔥 below, as that indicates a spot where the predictive analytics model has found value against the sportsbooks. To make things easy for you, we even list the best PGA Golf bets for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, down below.

PLAYER	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Jon Rahm	14.0%	40.4%	55.8%
Tony Finau	11.9%	34.9%	50.3%
Xander Schauffele	10.7%	35.5%	50.8%
Will Zalatoris	5.7%	23.0%	37.8%
Collin Morikawa	5.0%	19.7%	32.0%
Justin Thomas	4.9%	21.1%	34.7%
Sungjae Im	3.9%	16.9%	30.5%
Max Homa	3.7%	18.1%	30.5%
Maverick McNealy	2.5%	12.9%	23.6%
Adam Hadwin	1.8%	8.9%	17.2%

PGA Tour Golf Best Bets

Farmers Insurance Open

Tony Finau (+1100 at DraftKings) 

We just can't get on board with suggesting a bet on Rahm, even if he is the player with the best shot at winning. There are just too many talented players in this field, and essentially betting against all of them doesn't feel wise. With that said, we're opting for Finau and his +1100 odds. 

Finau was one of five runners-up at this tournament in 2021, and he has finished sixth or better in this event on four different occasions. He is just a player that you can trust at Torrey Pines, where not a lot of players are able to deal with the difficulties that this course presents. 

Of course, Finau has never actually won this tournament, but last year proved he is ready to get over the hump. He learned how to win and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he gets the job done this weekend. 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, Tony Finau is a 11.9% chance to win the Farmers Insurance Open, a 34.9% chance to finish Top-5 and a 50.3% chance of finishing Top-10.

ALSO: Our PGA projections can give you head-to-head matchup predictions

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Will Zalatoris (+1800 at FanDuel) 

Zalatoris shot a -16 at last week's American Express, which was nice to see after he shot a -20 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. That's two tournaments with solid results in a row for the Wake Forest product, who came into the year with some injury concerns. 

Now, Zalatoris will be out to win the Farmers Insurance Open, which he lost in a playoff in 2022. But we now know that Zalatoris is capable of navigating this difficult course, and we love his value at +1800. His putting can definitely be a bit concerning, but he tends to dial it in, in bigger tournaments. This is one of those events, as everybody wants to win at Torrey Pines. 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, Will Zalatoris is a 5.7% chance to win the Farmers Insurance Open, a 23.0% chance to finish Top-5 and a 37.8% chance of finishing Top-10.

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Maverick McNealy (+3500 at DraftKings) 

Our model clearly has a love for McNealy, who continues to pop up as a great value play. However, it isn't hard to see why, as the 27-year-old finished tied for seventh at the Sony Open in Hawaii to weeks ago. He has now played rather well throughout the course of this young season, and the oddsmakers aren't showing him enough respect at the moment. 

McNealy's clear edge on a course like this is his ability to gain strokes on long par-4s. He is also a reliable putter and should be able to give himself a shot to win this tournament with those two skills. 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, Maverick McNealy is a 2.5% chance to win the Farmers Insurance Open, a 12.9% chance to finish Top-5 and a 23.6% chance of finishing Top-10.