Patriots vs. Packers Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Betting Lines for Sunday, October 2

The Green Bay Packers will be looking to string together their third consecutive win when they host the New England Patriots at 4:25PM ET on Sunday, October 2, 2022. When two of the winningest franchises in the NFL square off, anything can happen.

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Patriots vs. Packers betting preview below. 

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Patriots vs. Packers Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 88% chance the Packers win on the money line
• 51% probability the Packers cover the -10 spread
• 51% shot the Under 40.5 points hits

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Patriots vs. Packers data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Patriots vs. Packers Odds and Betting Lines

The Points Spread (Packers -10)

Since the start of last season, Green Bay has been one of the most profitable teams to bet on in the NFL, posting a 14-7 record ATS, and this number only improves at home, where the team is 8-2 ATS in that span. In steps a New England team that will be without quarterback Mac Jones following an MRI that revealed a severe high-ankle sprain that may need surgery.

New England sits at 1-2 this season (0-2-1 ATS), already with two 10+ point losses to the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens. Jones started and played both those games, and it remains to be seen how the Patriots will operate with Brian Hoyer under center in his place.

MORE: NFL Futures Probabilities

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Green Bay opened the year with a blowout loss to their divisional rival Minnesota Vikings, but have bounced back nicely since with wins and covers at home against the Chicago Bears and Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The latter result came on the road.  

Wide receiver health is a big question for the Packers — Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson missed last week, forcing rookie Romeo Doubs into a larger role. Doubs responded with eight receptions for 73 yards and a TD, and showed off a rapidly developing connection with quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

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Over/Under Points Total (40.5)

A low total makes sense here with Jones' injury, but it shouldn't scare off Under bettors much. All three of the Packers games this season have stayed under 40, and two of the three Patriots games have been under this mark as well. With so many question marks regarding offensive player availability, it's difficult to project a high-scoring game.

RELATED: Full betting previews for every NFL game

Both teams' offenses have been held in check thus far — Green Bay has the sixth-lowest scoring offense in the NFL and New England has the eighth. Expect the Patriots to manage the clock and manufacture yards on the ground and both defenses to show up, pushing this Under the total.

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Patriots vs. Packers Free Picks

Packers -10

It's hard to talk ourselves into the Patriots marching into Lambeau and making this a game without their starting quarterback under center. With Doubs emerging and the Green Bay defense coming off a huge win where they locked down a much better Tampa Bay offense, we like the Pack to run away with this one and cover the -10 spread with ease.

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