Our Best NFL Week 14 Touchdown Picks to Parlay on Sunday

Week 14 action in the NFL has gotten underway with the Steelers losing to the Patriots on Thursday night in the Battle of the Backups but we're looking ahead to Sunday with our best TD scorer props.

All season long, we've been delivering you the best touchdown scorer predictions and picks by using our predictive analytics model's top-tier insights. By simulating each game 1000s of times, we're able to use those insights to make data-driven decisions every single day, including with our round robin touchdown picks below.

Before you get into these picks, make sure you've got access to the best sportsbooks in your state. These odds won't be the same across all books and if you're betting them in the wrong place, you're leaving money on the table. You're also leaving money on the table in the form of hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which Dimers has previously explained in detail via our Best Sportsbooks page. You could even win a trip to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl, just by betting on the NFL, so don't miss out!

Week 14 Touchdown Picks and Round Robin Parlay

Here you'll find the five touchdown picks we recommend using in a round robin in Week 14, and below that you'll find a breakdown on Round Robin betting strategy.

1. Justin Fields (CHI) to Score a TD +200

For our first TD prop, we're looking at Bears QB Justin Fields. The young signal caller has just one rushing touchdown this year, but he did miss a big chunk of time in the middle of the season. He's been back for two games and his rushing volume is as high as ever, carrying the ball a whopping 30 times across those two contests, including 18 for 104 yards against the Lions who he'll face this weekend. With that kind of volume, a TD is just a broken tackle away. DimersBOT projects Fields with 44.2% probability to score, giving us a 10.9% edge against his +200 odds on FanDuel.

If you bet this at FanDuel, be sure to cash in your $150 new user bonus here if you haven't already.

2. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) to Score a TD +205

Let's look at another NFC divisional clash as the Panthers take on the Saints in New Orleans. He's got four rushing touchdowns this season, with three of them in the past two weeks. He's coming off a season-high 25 carries and is outproducing Miles Sanders significantly. The Saints allow 0.8 rushing TDs per game but have a bottom-10 rushing defense that allows 125 yards per game. With Hubbard coming off his best game yet, he should be able to get moving downhill against this Saints front and with any luck, punch his way in for a score. Our model identifies Hubbard with a 38.2% probability to score a touchdown giving us a 5.4% edge on top of it.

These best odds are on DraftKings, where you can also secure a $150 sign-up bonus after betting your first $5. Learn more here.

3. Breece Hall (NYJ) to Score a TD +200

The Jets are going back to Zach Wilson, which is somehow an improvement over what we've seen since they threw Tim Boyle under center. Will it bode well for Breece Hall? Hopefully so against a Texans team allowing 1.2 rushing TDs per game. Hall has scored four times this year, twice on the ground and twice through the air. The Jets defense can keep things close which is good for game script and Hall has seen consistent volume. Our model predicts a 41.1% probability for Hall to find the endzone which gets us a 7.8% edge.

4. Davante Adams (LV) To Score a TD +165

Now for a receiver who's looking to end an otherwise disappointing season strong. Adams scored his first TD since Week 2 against the Dolphins in Week 12. His upside is astounding when he gets his targets and he's seen 33 total over the past three weeks. Despite Minnesota's pass defense that has limited scoring and yards, they have the worst opponent completion percentage in the whole league. Aiden O'Connell isn't an inspiring quarterback under center, but the Raiders will target their best player who's got as good of a chance to score any week as anyone. DimersBOT projects a 43.9% probability of a touchdown which gives us a 6.2% edge in his odds.

5. DeAndre Hopkins to Score a TD +285

This is an excellent play on value. DeAndre Hopkins has five touchdowns this season, and although there was some footage of a little sideline spat between Hop and QB Will Levis last Sunday, all five of those have come with Levis under center. He's scored twice in the past three weeks. The Dolphins aren't the easiest draw, but they are allowing the fifth-most touchdown per game this season. The Titans will likely be in a pass-heavy game script if they trail early. Our model has identified a 30.0% of him scoring with a nice 4.0% edge.

Week 14 Round Robin Profit Table

Now that we've got our five picks, let's get to the money making! We're going to play the x3, x4 and full 5-leg parlay. You can play the 2s, but they don't offer nearly as much return at these odds, and unless we hit three, the 2s won't be profitable. Here's how it breaks down with our $35 outlay:

COMBO	STAKE PER COMBO	TOTAL STAKE	POTENTIAL PAYOUT
x3 (10 bets)	$2	$20	$536.73
x4 (5 bets)	$2	$10	$397.82
x5 (1 bet)	$5	$5	$1,174.41

For reference, if we hit our lowest possible combo, we'll win $38 which covers our entire stake! Ideally we hit the longer odds guys or at least four, but if we can get three, we'll avoid any loss.

Hitting them all returns over $2,000!

Round Robin Betting Explained

If you're unfamiliar with Round Robin betting, let us explain. It's like betting on a parlay, except rather than one big ticket, you're betting multiple combinations that exist within the larger parlay.

The combinations are often displayed in this format: number of legs x number of combinations. For example, in a five-leg parlay, your options would be 2s x10, 3s x10, and 4s x5.

Let’s use a standard five-leg parlay for an example:

Standard Parlay:

• Player A
• Player B
• Player C
• Player D
• Player E

The combination of 2s would yield you these ten two-leg parlays:

Round Robin 2s x10:

• Players A+B
• Players A+C
• Players A+D
• Players A+E
• Players B+C
• Players B+D
• Players B+E
• Players C+D
• Players C+E
• Players D+E

Let’s say Player A scores a touchdown in his game, but Player B fails to do so. Instead of holding a losing parlay ticket with three legs yet to play, you still hold six possible winners, only having lost your four combinations with Player B.

Just apply this to any of the combinations you use and you'll see how you can win some nice profits even if a few legs miss.