Our Best NFL Picks to Parlay for NFL Week 16 Sunday with DraftKings' Parlay Insurance Promo

It's that wonderful time of year when the NFL graces our screens almost every day from Thursday through Monday! We've got just three weeks of NFL action left and DraftKings is offering users Parlay Insurance this weekend, so let's take advantage with our best parlay picks identified by our analytics model.

Dimers' mission is to deliver you the best NFL bets, player props and NFL predictions to guide you through the bet-verse. With a host of 10 games on today, we're taking our four best bets and rolling them together for our NFL Parlay of the Day. By using the power of our model's predictive analytics, we're able to find the most probable and best value plays to use. You'll find today's +1233 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, as well as the Parlay Insurance token.

Speaking of finding the best odds, the only way to always guarantee that is to have multiple sportsbooks, as Dimers has reported in detail via our Best Sportsbooks section. Between daily promos and unique sign-up offers, having multiple books is the best way to increase your profitability. As Dimers also revealed, you could even win a trip to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl, just by betting on the NFL!

If you're new to DraftKings which we're using today, then you're in luck because they're offering a $150 sign-up bonus to new users who bet their first $5. That's a lot of bonus bets to use for this week's NFL action! Plus, with today's Parlay Insurance token, if one leg loses, we'll get our stake back in bonus bets. Claim these promos here or via the offer below if you haven't already.

Best NFL Picks and +1233 Parlay - Sunday, December 24

Now, if you claim your Parlay Insurance token from DraftKings and apply it to this parlay, you'll get your stake back in bonus bets, up to the listed max within the terms.

LEG 1: Browns -3 (-102)

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans 1:00PM EST

For this first leg, we're targeting an early-afternoon AFC clash between two playoff hopefuls, the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans. The Browns are effectively in with a win, while the Texans currently sit at a 51% probability of making the playoffs, with this game being pivotal to that goal. Houston will trot out backup QB Case Keenum as rookie CJ Stround has been ruled out for a second-straight game with a concussion. The Browns have resurrected the career of Joe Flacco, who looks like he'll be starting a playoff game in the year 2023. 

As DimersBOT's highest edge of the weekend, the Browns get a 62.9% probability of covering the three points against the Texans. At -105, we got a sizable 11.7% edge in value. That's a must-bet spot in an NFL spread, as they rarely come with edges higher than 5-7%. Cleveland is a shade better ATS than Houston at an 8-5-1 record. Cleveland's defense hasn't been the otherworldy unit it was to start the year, but with a healthy team all around, they should control this game.

MORE: Our Best Week 16 NFL Touchdown Picks and Parlay

LEG 2: Lions -3 (-110)

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings 1:00PM EST

We'll switch gears to the NFC, specifically in the north where the Lions are on the cusp of securing their spot in the postseason and the Vikings hope to hold onto their current seven seed. The Lions have only won two games this year where they didn't win by more than three points, including their recent blowout of the Broncos, with an ATS record at the top of the league. The Vikings aren't far behind with a 7-4-3 ATS record, but they're now sending Nick Mullens out under center and he's one bad decision and a mind-melting interception away from throwing any game completely away.

Our model projects Detroit with a 58.9% probability to cover this spread, and we get a solid 6.6% edge in the -110 odds on DraftKings. The Lions will lock up the division with a win and would love to do so on a division rival's home turf. As long as Jared Goff keeps the turnovers at bay, the Lions have the upper hand and superior roster. 

Check out our best NFL props in Week 16!

LEG 3: Colts +3 (-118)

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons 1:00PM EST

The Indianapolis Colts have been one of this year's biggest surprises. Not because they're 8-5 and in the AFC South race, but because they're doing so in spite of losing rookie standout QB Anthony Richardson, starting Gardner Minshew under center and getting about a half season from Jonathan Taylor. Nevertheless, they've contended with plenty of teams this year and share a tie for the best ATS record in the NFL at 9-5. On paper alone, they have a dream matchup with Atlanta who's covered just four times this season, one of the worst rates in the NFL.

DimersBOT gives Indianapolis a 58.2% probability of covering the +3 spread for a slim but bettable edge of 4.1%. Jonathan Taylor returns to the team after missing a few more games and Michael Pittman has been cleared from the concussion protocol. Atlanta has done a solid job of minimizing scoring from opposing offenses, but also struggle in that department themselves, with the fifth-lowest scoring output this season.

LEG 4: Commanders +3 (-110)

Washington Commanders @ New York Jets 1:00PM EST

It feels like a coin toss between these teams, but the 56.5% probability identified by our model suggests it leans stronger in the Commanders' favor. That'll give us a 4.1% edge against the books, more than enough to seize the opportunity with. 

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