MLB Parlay: Our Best Bet Today [Thursday 8/1/2024]

We've got a reduced five-game MLB slate on Thursday night, August 1, and we've cooked up a devilish little +666 parlay with one prop from three different games, along with a way to use this MLB parlay for a couple of different MLB sportsbook promos tonight.

Our model has been running simulations on today's slate ever since lines became available and we're using some "behind-the-scenes" data to create this parlay.

By using both our most-likely hitters and our home run probabilities, all sourced from our predictive analytics model, we're able to find betting opportunities that don't normally appear in our Best MLB Bets and MLB Player Props. Let's break down the key player prop bets and trends that make this parlay a potential goldmine on Thursday, August 1.

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MLB Parlay Tonight - August 1, 2024

You can find nearly 100 bets and props with an edge in tonight's games with Dimers Pro, so if you're not keen on this parlay, you're sure to find a value play that's right for you.

To create this parlay, we're using Dimers Pro data exclusive to our Dimers Pro VIP Discord members.

Every day, we release our Top 15 Home Run hitters and Top 20 Hit probabilities from the back-end data of our model. Discord access is included at no extra cost with any Dimers Pro subscription, providing you with even more value for less than $1/day.

The strategy behind this parlay is simple - take a player featured in our Top 20 hit list *and* in our top overall home run hitters, and select them to get 2+ bases. This can be achieved by multiple hits or an extra-base hit. Advancing on the basepath via another player does not count. 

Some of these players may be good HR plays on their own, so consult our Best MLB Props page for their standalone value.

Leg 1. Anthony Santander 2+ Total Bases (+105)

We'll start off with the Orioles' scorching hot slugger, Anthony Santander. The Orioles' leading HR hitter is having an excellent season, slugging 31 home runs and poised to blow by his career high of 33 and an .848 OPS, the highest of his career.

Since the All-Star Break, he's had five games with multiple hits, as well as an XBH (extra base hit) in two other games, meaning he's cashed this in 7/13 starts. He's gone hitless just twice.

Tonight, he's one of our highest probability HR hitters at 28.6% in our model's early run, and he gets an 83.9% probability of picking up at least one hit. He's against RHP Ben Lively who has a 1.17 WHIP this season and has allowed at least one HR in in four of his last five starts and 2 twice. Santander has 13 doubles and 23 HR off righties this year.

Full Game Projections: In-Depth Betting Preview For Every MLB Game

Leg 2. Vinnie Pasquantino 2+ Total Bases (+100)

Next up is a Royals hitter who knows how to hit in bunches, and we're not talking about Bobby Witt Jr.

You can go ahead and take Bobby, but he'll cost ya at -175 for 2+ bases, so instead we're looking at the Italian Nightmare, Vinnie Pasquantino. The Royals first baseman has shown plenty of promise since his 2022 debut and he's a full-fledged part of this lineup now.

In 12 games since the All-Star Break, Pasquantino has picked up six multi-hit games, including a pair of three-hitters, plus an XBH in another, making 7/12 games since the break that he's cashed this prop. He draws an 18.9% HR probability and a 76.2% hit probability from the DimersBOT.

RHP Keider Montero is the projected starter for the Tigers, allowing 42 hits across his 7 appearances this year, including 7+ in three straight. Pasquantino has a .764 OPS and 31 XBH against righties this year.

Leg 3. Marcell Ozuna 2+ Total Bases (-115)

We'll close out with our man from Atlanta, the Braves' main slugger, Marcell Ozuna.  He's the second guy with 31 home runs in this parlay and that's no coincidence, as he's our model's most-likely HR hitter for Atlanta tonight at 28.6% to go along with his hit probability of 80.6%.

He had 10 multi-hit games in July as well as three other games with an XBH, 6 of those coming in his 12 games since the All-Star Break. 

RHP Max Meyer will start for the Marlins. He primarily throws a 4-seamer and slider, Ozuna's two best pitches that he hits, with 29 of his homers coming off fastballs and breaking pitches. He's got 39 XBH off righties this year.

Lottos and Longshots: Create unlimited parlays by using custom filters with Dimers Pro!

MLB Parlay Bet Today: August 1, 2024

Having simulated tonight's five games 10,000 times, Dimers has determined the three players to use in a Total Bases parlay at +666 odds!

Tonight's MLB Parlay Boost

If you add one more leg to this parlay, you'll be able to play it either with an SGPx boost at DraftKings, or "no-sweat" at FanDuel. 

Keep in mind that adding a fourth leg will come with more risk, but you can attempt to mitigate that by using one of our stronger probability 1+ Hit props, like Bobby Witt Jr. or Ryan Mountcastle. There may be odds restrictions for your included legs, so be sure to check the terms for each promo.

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