Our Best Touchdown Props to Parlay for Chiefs-Ravens and Lions-49ers Championship Games

It's wild to think that we have just three NFL games left in the 2023-24 season. This weekend's AFC and NFC Championship games will determine who battles it out for league supremacy at Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. All week long, Dimers will be rolling out our in-depth looks at these games, from our best NFL prop bets to our First + Anytime Touchdown Predictions and our straight-up picks for each game.

These bets are sourced via our in-house predictive analytics models that run 1000s of simulations on every game to identify where the sportsbooks are wrong. In doing so, we've identified a pair of TD props to make this weekend that our model says are mispriced. By combining the two, we're looking at a +1720 TD parlay.

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RELATED: The Super Bowl LVIII Matchup That Will Break the Internet

Our +1720 Touchdown Parlay

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Lamar Jackson (BAL) First TD Scorer	+600
Christian McCaffrey (SF) 2+ Touchdowns	+160

+1720 Conference Championship Parlay Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens - Sunday, January 28, 3:00PM ET

LEG 1: Lamar Jackson (BAL) First TD Scorer (+600)

The first leg of this supercharged touchdown parlay is for Lamar Jackson to score the first touchdown in the AFC Championship game. Fresh off a two-TD performance in which he scored the first of the game against the Texans, Lamar will look to defend the Ravens' home turf against the visiting Chiefs who are carrying momentum in a bottle. Lamar's rushing prowess was on display all season long, but he was pretty quiet in the touchdown department except for the beginning of the year. It took one playoff game to unleash the beast as he ran wild for 100 yards and a pair of scores. 

Our model has identified a 24% probability of Lamar punching his way in for the first score of the game, and that was actually as high as 26% on Monday afternoon. That's still one of the highest First TD probabilities we've seen all year long, and it's giving us some major value. 24% calculates to a fair price of approximately +310, while he's currently priced at +600 on BetMGM. That's a massive 10% edge in the odds, making this a must-bet on its own and the anchor of our parlay.

🏈 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

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Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers - Sunday, January 28, 6:30PM ET

LEG 2: Christian McCaffrey (SF) 2+ Touchdowns (+160)

For our second leg, we're looking at another repeat of last week as we take Christian McCaffrey to pick up a pair of touchdowns when the Niners host the Lions in the NFC Championship. CMC's penchant for scoring doesn't need any introduction; this is a man who had just three games without a score this year. He tallied 23 touchdowns between the regular season and last weekend against the Packers and single-handedly gave San Francisco the fighting chance they surprisingly needed to emerge victorious, which marked his sixth multi-TD game in this campaign.

We're projecting McCaffrey with a massive 47% probability to score a pair against the Lions, while his +160 odds imply just a 38.5% probability, giving us a significant 8.5% edge in the odds, which should realistically be closer to +115 per our model.

🏈 Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

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NFL +1720 Touchdown Parlay - Sunday, January 28, 2024

1️⃣ Lamar Jackson (BAL) First TD Scorer
2️⃣ Christian McCaffrey (SF) 2+ Touchdowns

The best odds for this SGP are over at BetMGM Sportsbook as of publishing and are subject to change.

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