NFL Week 7 Best Bets and Picks For Sunday October 23, 2022

Our NFL best bets are 21-6 since the start of the year and we're hoping to stay hot with our NFL Week 7 picks. We have you covered with two games in the early slate and then two later in the afternoon. That'll have you locked in and entertained all the way up until the Pittsburgh Steelers face the Miami Dolphins for some Sunday Night Football. We're coming off a week in which we went 3-1 with our NFL Best Bets, so we're feeling good entering this week. We are, however, somewhat disappointed not to be betting on the Atlanta Falcons, who are now 6-0 against the spread on the season. But we do have a little something on that game, so we'll scratch our Marcus Mariota itch with that. 

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NFL Week 7 Best Bets and Picks - Early Games

New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - 1:00PM ET

The Giants are one of the stories of the year in the NFL thus far, but we're not buying what they're selling. New York is still nothing more than an average football team, so we expect Jacksonville to take care of business at home in this game. The Jaguars have lost three in a row coming into this one, and this is going to be a hungry football team on Sunday. 

Since Doug Pederson began his coaching career, his teams are also 7-0 ATS in home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game. His teams have won those games by an average of 11.6 points per game. Also, Pederson's Eagles teams were 7-3 ATS when coming off three games in a row in which they failed to cover. With that said, we trust that he'll get his team focused for this one. 

Jacksonville should have a good plan in place to limit Saquon Barkley in this game. The Jaguars know they don't need to worry too much about Daniel Jones using his arm to beat them, and that is a luxury for a defense. 

PICK: Jaguars -3 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals - 1:00PM ET

As previously mentioned, we're upset that we're not on the Falcons in this game, as they've made us a lot of money early in the season. They fell just short of being a system play for us, but we do like the Over in this football game. 

While Atlanta's offense hasn't gotten the respect it deserves, this is a top-10 team when it comes to points per game. The Falcons are averaging 24.3 points per game this year, and they're coming off a game in which they put up 28 points against an elite 49ers defense. Mariota was electric in that game, throwing for two touchdowns with no picks and also adding 50 yards and a score on the ground. He's really comfortable in Arthur Smith's offense, which isn't surprising considering he was his offensive coordinator with the Titans. 

We just expect Atlanta to have no trouble moving the ball against Cincinnati, and the same can be said for the Bengals. Joe Burrow and Co. put up 30 points in a win over the Saints last week, so you can count on Cincinnati doing its part in helping Over bettors cash. 

PICK: Over 47 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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NFL Week 7 Best Bets and Picks - Late Games

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos - 4:05PM ET

The Under has hit in five of the six games that the Broncos have played this year, and it's also 25-14 in all Denver games over the last three seasons. On top of that, the Under is 12-5 in Broncos games with a line of +3 to -3 in that same span. This is just a team that hasn't been playing high-scoring games, and we don't see that changing here. 

Denver currently has the fourth-best scoring defense in the entire NFL, allowing only 16.5 points per game. New York also happens to have a solid defense, as the team is giving up only 21.3 points per game. The Jets have allowed 20 or fewer in each of their last three games, and giving up only 10 to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week was a statement for a defense that is now stacked with young talent — Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams are both stars. 

The Broncos should be able to slow down the Jets offense in this one, especially since Zach Wilson hasn't shown much with his arm thus far. But Denver will also struggle to put up points with either a banged-up Russell Wilson or an inexperienced Brett Rypien under center. That's why we're playing the Under, even if the number is low.  

PICK: Under 38.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Chargers - 4:25PM ET

The Chargers have won three games in a row, but this is a team that has not been impressive in wins over some mediocre teams. Now, Los Angeles has to face a Seattle squad that has exceeded expectations all year long. The Seahawks are actually coming off of a 10-point win over the Arizona Cardinals in a game in which they were 2.5-point underdogs. Now, we think they'll go on the road and give the Chargers a run for their money. 

Since Pete Carroll became the head coach of Seattle, the Seahawks are 23-13 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They're also 13-5 ATS in road games versus teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game under Carroll.

Also, Geno Smith and the Seahawks passing game has surprisingly looked explosive at times this year. For that reason, we can see Seattle keeping pace with Justin Herbert and Co. 

PICK: Seahawks +5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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