NFL Week 4 First and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions [2023]

The NFL is back for another big week, and we've run 10K data-driven simulations of every Week 4 game in order to figure out which players are most likely to score a touchdown and which are the best TD bets to make.

NFL first and anytime touchdown scorer props have become two of the most popular prop bets among football fans. By using Dimers.com's Week 4 first touchdown scorer predictions and anytime touchdown scorer predictions, you can get an advantage over other bettors.

Utilizing our cutting-edge computer power and data, Dimers.com has been able to identify where the best value can be found for Week 4.

This week's TD scorers are proudly sponsored by Bet365, where new users can grab $365 in bonus bets just for betting $1 on any of the below players to score in Week 4.

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This week’s NFL slate features offensive stars such as Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard and Davante Adams, with each of these players projected to have a high probability of getting in for six for their respective teams in Week 4.

Here, we will show you the most likely NFL touchdown scorers for Week 4, as well as the value prop bets you should look into making for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.

MORE: Every NFL Week 4 Game Simulated 10,000 Times

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions - NFL Week 4, 2023

After simulating the Week 4 NFL slate 10K times, our model has discovered the most likely players to score a touchdown across all of this week’s games.

1. Christian McCaffrey (49ers): 71.0% probability
2. Tony Pollard (Cowboys): 56.7% probability
3. Davante Adams (Raiders): 56.2% probability
4. Austin Ekeler (Chargers): 55.3% probability
5. Justin Jefferson (Vikings): 51.0% probability
6. Javonte Williams (Broncos): 48.4% probability
7. Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 48.1% probability
8. Stefon Diggs (Bills): 47.9% probability
9. Saquon Barkley (Giants): 47.7% probability
10. Kyren Williams (Rams): 47.3% probability

First Touchdown Predictions - NFL Week 4, 2023

As well as providing you with the players who are most likely to score an anytime touchdown, DimersBOT also has the 10 players most likely to score the first touchdown in their respective games across all of the Week 4 NFL action.

1. Christian McCaffrey (49ers): 21.6% probability
2. Tony Pollard (Cowboys): 15.7% probability
3. Davante Adams (Raiders): 13.3% probability
4. Austin Ekeler (Chargers): 13.1% probability
5. Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals): 13.0% probability
6. Justin Jefferson (Vikings): 12.7% probability
7. Najee Harris (Steelers): 12.5% probability
8. Bijan Robinson (Falcons): 12.2% probability
9. Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 12.1% probability
10. Javonte Williams (Broncos): 12.0% probability

Keep in mind that these lists only show the players most likely to score an anytime or first touchdown in NFL Week 4, which does not necessarily mean that our model recommends betting on them.

To increase your chances of winning, it's important to look out for the best odds available, as well as checking out our recommended bets below.

NFL Touchdown Best Bets and Odds - Week 4, 2023

Josh Downs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+340)

• Odds: +340 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Edge: 13.9%
• Probability: 36.6%
• Game: Rams vs. Colts (1:00PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with DraftKings Sportsbook

Our model has identified the best NFL touchdown bet for Week 4, which is in the matchup between the Rams and Colts. The bet is on Josh Downs (IND) to score a touchdown at odds of +340 with DraftKings Sportsbook, where our model has found an edge of 13.9%.

Braxton Berrios Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+400)

• Odds: +400 via PointsBet
• Edge: 12.5%
• Probability: 32.5%
• Game: Dolphins vs. Bills (1:00PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with PointsBet

The next best NFL touchdown bet for Week 4 comes in the Dolphins vs. Bills game, where our model has found an edge of 12.5% on Braxton Berrios from the Miami Dolphins at odds of +400 with PointsBet to score an anytime touchdown.

Rashid Shaheed Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+340)

• Odds: +340 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Edge: 8.5%
• Probability: 31.2%
• Game: Buccaneers vs. Saints (1:00PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with DraftKings Sportsbook

Our NFL model has identified another +EV touchdown prop for this week's action, which is in the game between the Buccaneers and Saints. This bet is on the Saints' Rashid Shaheed to score an anytime TD at odds of +340 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

With a probability of 31.2%, bettors are gaining an edge of 8.5% on the sportsbooks with this pick.

K.J. Osborn Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+425)

• Odds: +425 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Edge: 6.0%
• Probability: 25.1%
• Game: Vikings vs. Panthers (1:00PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with DraftKings Sportsbook

The NFL Week 4 touchdown bets continue in the Vikings vs. Panthers game, where DimersBOT has found a juicy edge of 6% on K.J. Osborn from the Vikings at odds of +425 with DraftKings Sportsbook to score anytime.

Jerry Jeudy Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185)

• Odds: +185 via PointsBet
• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 41.5%
• Game: Broncos vs. Bears (8:30PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with PointsBet

The fifth bet that our NFL model has found an edge on for Week 4 is Jerry Jeudy to score an anytime touchdown in the Broncos vs. Bears clash. After simulating the game 10K times, DimersBOT has detected a solid 6.4% edge for those who take the +185 odds available at PointsBet.

MORE: NFL Props for Week 4, 2023

NFL Week 4 Touchdown Round Robin Parlay

These picks were made by our powerful predictive analytics model, which looked at every single game, team, and player on the Week 4 NFL slate to determine the best players to include in a round robin parlay.

• Josh Downs (IND): 13.9% edge, 36.6% probability, +340 odds
• Braxton Berrios (MIA): 12.5% edge, 32.5% probability, +400 odds
• Rashid Shaheed (NO): 8.5% edge, 31.2% probability, +340 odds
• K.J. Osborn (MIN): 6.0% edge, 25.1% probability, +425 odds
• Jerry Jeudy (DEN): 6.4% edge, 41.5% probability, +185 odds

Taking all five of these players in an anytime TD parlay today would secure odds of +113011, which means that a $5 bet could score you $5,656.

As always, though, we at Dimers suggest playing these picks in a round robin parlay, meaning you could still make a profit even if only two or three of them score a touchdown this week!

DimersBOT believes that these five guys are all have legitimate chances to score and will give you an edge against the best odds. This makes them the ideal players to wager on this week.

Speaking of $5 bets, you can unlock a generous reward of $200 in bonus bets by placing a simple $5 wager on any of these NFL touchdown picks (including the parlay) at DraftKings. Click ➡️ here ⬅️ to sign up now!

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

Today's NFL Touchdown Betting Picks - Week 4, 2023

All of Dimers' NFL first and anytime touchdown picks and predictions for Week 4 have been generated thanks to thousands of data-driven game simulations, providing reliable and accurate NFL predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use this week's NFL touchdown scorer picks for your personal gambling, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

More About NFL

Now you've got the 411 on this week's NFL touchdown predictions, check out the best betting coverage for all NFL games on our NFL Predictions page, where you can find probabilities and odds, plus our best bets for every single NFL matchup.