NFL Week 17 Best Bets and Picks For Sunday, January 1, 2023

We're 45-20-2 with our NFL best bets this season, and we're hoping to make sure the final two weeks of the regular season are profitable. This part of the year can be a little hard to bet on, as all sorts of teams will have different motivation levels. But we're here to make it easy and pick out some winners for you. We'll begin by looking at an AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots. Then, we're turning to a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles. And then we'll conclude with the game in which the New York Jets face the Seattle Seahawks. That last game should be an exciting one, with Mike White returning under center for New York. 

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NFL Week 17 Best Betting Picks and Predictions

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots - 1:00PM ET

The Dolphins are facing a lot of criticism right now, as Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with yet another stint in the NFL's concussion protocol. With that in mind, it looks like we'll see Teddy Bridgewater under center for Miami. Bridgewater is one of the better backup quarterbacks in football, but there's just no way the Dolphins will be as explosive as usual offensively. With that in mind, it isn't crazy to think the Patriots will win and cover here. New England is third in the league in defensive DVOA, so Miami is going to have to work for everything. 

This will just come down to whether or not Mac Jones can turn in an average performance as a passer. But we tend to think he should be able to here, as the Dolphins have a very exploitable secondary. 

New England is also 8-0 against the spread after being outgained by 100 or more yards in its previous game over the last three seasons. The Patriots have also won those games by an average of 23.1 points per game, so this is a team you can count on to bounce back after a tough loss to the Bengals last week. 

PICK: Patriots -3 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

🏈 Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions

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New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles - 1:00PM ET

The Over has hit in four of the last five games that the Eagles have played, and going from Jalen Hurts to Gardner Minshew didn't slow down the Philadelphia offense. The team put up 34 points in a loss to the Cowboys last week, so we're confident that a Minshew-led team can still light it up. But we also feel good about the Saints putting up a decent amount of points here. Philadelphia's defense looked miserable last week, and Andy Dalton hasn't been as bad as advertised this year. He should be able to move the ball here. 

The Over is actually 8-1 in the games that the Eagles have played as home favorites under head coach Nick Sirianni. It's also 9-1 when they have played at home against teams that complete 61.0% or more of their passes in that span. With that in mind, we're thinking this game easily goes Over, and potentially even ends up being played in the 50's. 

PICK: Over 43.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

🏈 Saints vs. Eagles Predictions

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New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks - 4:05PM ET

Mike White is back for the Jets on Sunday, which means New York no longer has to waste its time with Zach Wilson at the most important position in the sport. The Jets appear to be ready to move on from Wilson in the offseason, which makes sense considering he grades out as the worst starting quarterback in the NFL according to PFF's player grades. Meanwhile, if you remove the snap minimum for quarterbacks, White played at a level comparable to guys like Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill and Dak Prescott this season. That's good company and if it's not just a flash in the pan, New York probably would have made the playoffs with White under center all year. 

The Jets do, however, have an outside shot at making it in, but they need to win out in order to do that. And all things considered, we do like their chances of getting the job done in a tough road environment. The Seahawks have proven that their hot start to the season was nothing but a fluke, with the team coming into this one after having lost five of its last six games. Now, Geno Smith and a struggling Seattle offense run into a New York defense that is sixth in the league in defensive DVOA. 

We just think the Jets will be playing this game with some serious emotions. White has brought the best out of his teammates all year, and they should show up for him in this massive spot. 

PICK: Jets -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

🏈 Jets vs. Seahawks Predictions