NFL Week 16 Best Bets and Picks For Christmas Day on Sunday, December 25, 2022

Our NFL best bets are 42-17-2 on the year and we're hoping to give you some Christmas Day winners for Sunday, December 25. There's only three games on the Sunday slate for Week 16, with the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins starting things off and then the Tampa Bay Buccaneers facing the Arizona Cardinals in the nightcap. That means you get to see Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady for a little dose of greatness. If you've been reading this column all year, you know you can trust in us to deliver you some good picks that you might not find elsewhere. 

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NFL Week 16 Sunday Best Betting Picks and Predictions

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins - 1:00PM ET

Miami is 0-6 against the spread when coming off three games in which the team has given up 400.0 or more total yards per game over the last three seasons. The Dolphins have also lost by 10.8 points per game in those contests, so this is a team that really can slide when its defense falls apart. Now, Miami will need to try and figure things out in a meeting with Rodgers and a Green Bay squad that has won and covered in back-to-back games. The Packers have also averaged 28.5 points per game over their last three games. 

Also, while both of these teams need wins in this game, it's Green Bay that really can't afford to lose. The Packers will likely have to win out in order to make the playoffs this year, so they'll be playing with a real sense of urgency in this spot. And all things considered, we trust Green Bay's defense to come up with just enough stops to allow Rodgers to go ahead and win this game by picking on the weak Miami defense. We're taking the points, but it's worth a moneyline sprinkle. 

PICK: Packers +4 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

PROPS: Packers vs. Dolphins Player Props and TDs

🏈 Packers vs. Dolphins Predictions
📈 Analysis: Packers vs. Dolphins

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Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams - 4:30PM ET

If you're trying to figure out a time to take a break from watching sports on Sunday — or to flip over from the NFL to the NBA — we'd strongly suggest skipping this one. This game doesn't have any playoff implications whatsoever, and these teams are both absolutely miserable to watch. However, we do see it as an opportunity to make money, so it's probably worth giving the Broncos the bet-it-and-forget-it treatment here. 

Denver is going to get Russell Wilson back under center in this one, and he actually played his best game of the year in the same game in which he got knocked out with a bad concussion. Wilson threw for 247 yards with three touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs in that game, and he'll now look to build on that by defeating the Rams. But the real reason to back the Broncos in this one is that Los Angeles' lousy offense — led by Baker Mayfield — just doesn't have what it takes to put up enough points against an elite Denver defense. That will make it difficult for the Rams to cover such a small spread. 

PICK: Broncos -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

🏈 Broncos vs. Rams Predictions
📈 Analysis: Broncos vs. Rams

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Buccaneers vs. Cardinals - 8:20PM ET

The final game of the night will feature the Buccaneers looking to beat up on a Cardinals team that is without both Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy at the quarterback position. That means that it'll be up to Trace McSorley to try and lead his team to a victory over the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. But McSorley completed just 46.7% of his passes for no touchdowns and two picks against the Broncos last week. He'll likely be in for a tough game against a Buccaneers defense that is top 10 in the league in DVOA. 

This is also a game that just means everything for Tampa Bay and nothing for Arizona. The Buccaneers need to win games in order to win the NFC South this year, while the Cardinals are eliminated from the postseason. It's not always a good thing to keep things that simple when betting, but it's hard not to here. Tampa Bay has every reason to go out and play a great game, but the same can't be said for the home team. 

The Buccaneers should also be fuming after letting their game against the Cincinnati Bengals slip away last week. 

PICK: Buccaneers -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

🏈 Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Bucs vs. Cardinals