NFL Week 15 Best Bets and Picks For Sunday, December 18, 2022

We're 40-16-2 with our NFL best bets this season and we feel good about contributing to that winning record with our NFL Week 15 Sunday plays. We love what we're seeing on the betting board this week, so make sure you join us and get in on the action! There are quite a few playoff-caliber games on the slate for the Sunday, December 18 NFL slate, and we're looking hard at two of them with betting picks for both: Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets (winner is suddenly in a great position for the playoffs) and Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We're also looking at something in the meeting between the Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars. 

RELATED: Our Best First & Anytime Touchdown Scorers for Sunday Week 15

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NFL Week 15 Best Betting Picks and Predictions

Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - 1:00PM ET

It might seem like the easy call to back the Cowboys in this game, but the Jaguars are better than their record suggests and should be able to put a scare into Dak Prescott and Co. here. Jacksonville comes into this one after having won and covered in three of its last five games, and the most recent victory was a 14-point road win over a good Tennessee team.

The Jaguars will now be fired up to be playing in front of their own crowd for the first time since November 27. They're 3-2 both straight-up and against the spread at home this year. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are playing their first road game since November 20, so they won't be as comfortable as they've been in recent weeks. 

Dallas also looked really vulnerable in a 27-23 win over Houston last week, with the team giving up 327 yards of offense against a lousy Texans offense. The Jaguars present a much bigger challenge for opposing defenses, as Trevor Lawrence looks great under center and Travis Etienne is a star in the backfield. 

PICK: Jaguars +4 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets - 1:00PM ET

One of the popular talking points on social media this week is that Jared Goff struggles in the cold and can't handle pressure — which the Jets can definitely bring. However, the Lions happen to have an elite offensive line and a good running game. With that in mind, they're not exactly asking Goff to go out there and win games on his own. He takes what the defense gives him and he should be able to find some success against the Jets here.  

What should be talked about a bit more heading into this one is that Detroit has bottled up the opposing running back in three of the last four games. In those three games, the Lions saw Saquon Barkley, Etienne and Dalvin Cook. With that in mind, this defense should feel good about slowing down Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter, which would make quarterback Mike White's life extremely difficult. If White isn't comfortable out there, the Jets have no chance of winning. 

Detroit has also covered in each of the last six games, and the team is also 7-0 ATS when coming off back-to-back games in which it scored 25 or more points over the last three seasons. The Lions are also 18-9 ATS as underdogs over the last two years.  

UPDATE (12:00PM ET on December 16): Mike White is now out for this game, which means Zach Wilson is starting for the Jets. We hope you got on Detroit early, as the team is now a small favorite here. 

PICK: Lions +1 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4:25PM ET

The Bengals are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, while the Buccaneers have looked miserable in recent weeks. With that said, this looks like has the potential to be a "Pros vs. Joes" situation. Every bettor on the planet is going to see this line and hop on Cincinnati, but you're going to want to zig while they zag here. 

Over the last three seasons, Tampa Bay is actually 3-0 ATS when playing as a home underdog, and you just don't want to bet against Tom Brady in a must-win game. And that's exactly what this is for the Buccaneers, as their grip on the NFC South is slipping. 

We think Todd Bowles will have his defense ready to go in this one. The Buccaneers have had their struggles this year, but they are 13th in the league in overall DVOA. They are not quite as bad as their record and should be able to keep this game close at home. In fact, we'd sprinkle a little something on the moneyline in this spot. 

PICK: Buccaneers +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)