NFL Week 11 First and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions [2023]

The NFL is back for another week of action, and we've run 10K data-driven simulations of each Week 11 game to find out which players are most likely to score a touchdown and which are the best TD bets to make.

NFL first and anytime touchdown scorer props have become some of the most popular prop bets among football fans. By using Dimers.com's Week 11 first touchdown scorer predictions and anytime touchdown scorer predictions, you're giving yourself an advantage over other bettors.

Utilizing our cutting-edge computer power and data, Dimers.com has been able to identify where to find the best value for Week 11.

This week's TD scorers are proudly brought to you by Bet365, where new players can get $150 in bonus bets just for betting $5 on any of the below players to score in Week 11.

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This week’s NFL slate features offensive stars such as Christian McCaffrey, Javonte Williams and Austin Ekeler, with each of these guys projected to have a high probability of getting in for six in their respective games in Week 11.

Here, we will show you which NFL players are the most likely to score touchdowns in Week 11, as well as the touchdown scorer bets you should look into making for Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season.

MORE: Every NFL Week 11 Game Simulated 10,000 Times

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions - NFL Week 11, 2023

After simulating the Week 11 NFL slate thousands of times, DimersBOT has discovered the most likely players to score a touchdown across all of this week’s games.

Player (Team)	Anytime Touchdown Probability
Christian McCaffrey (49ers)	64.9%
Javonte Williams (Broncos)	59.6%
Austin Ekeler (Chargers)	57.1%
Travis Etienne (Jaguars)	55.5%
Devin Singletary (Texans)	55.5%
Tony Pollard (Cowboys)	55.2%
Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)	55.1%
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)	54.0%
Derrick Henry (Titans)	49.2%
Saquon Barkley (Giants)	48.7%

First Touchdown Predictions - NFL Week 11, 2023

As well as providing you with the players who are most likely to score an anytime touchdown, DimersBOT also has the 10 players most likely to score the first touchdown in their respective games across all of the Week 11 NFL action.

Player (Team)	First Touchdown Probability
Christian McCaffrey (49ers)	19.4%
Javonte Williams (Broncos)	17.1%
Travis Etienne (Jaguars)	16.0%
Tony Pollard (Cowboys)	15.6%
Austin Ekeler (Chargers)	15.4%
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)	15.4%
Brian Robinson (Commanders)	14.2%
Devin Singletary (Texans)	13.6%
Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)	13.5%
Derrick Henry (Titans)	13.1%

Keep in mind that these lists only show the players most likely to score an anytime or first touchdown in NFL Week 11, which does not necessarily mean that our model recommends betting on them.

To increase your chances of winning, it's important to look out for the best odds available, as well as checking out our recommended bets for our Week 11 Round Robin below.

NFL Touchdown Best Bets and Odds - Week 11, 2023

T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+230)

• Odds: +230 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 39.4%
• Game: Vikings vs. Broncos (8:20PM EST)
• Click here to place this bet with DraftKings Sportsbook

Our model has identified one of the best NFL touchdown bets for Week 11, which comes in the game between the Vikings and Broncos. The bet is on T.J. Hockenson (MIN) to score a touchdown at odds of +230 with DraftKings Sportsbook, where our model has found an edge of 9.1%.

Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)

• Odds: +180 via FanDuel Sportsbook
• Edge: 13.5%
• Probability: 49.2%
• Game: Titans vs. Jaguars (1:00PM EST)
• Click here to place this bet with FanDuel Sportsbook

The next best NFL touchdown bet for Week 11 comes in the Titans vs. Jaguars clash, where our model has found an edge of 13.5% on Derrick Henry from the Tennessee Titans at odds of +180 with FanDuel Sportsbook to score an anytime touchdown.

Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160)

• Odds: +160 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Edge: 9.2%
• Probability: 47.6%
• Game: Jets vs. Bills
• Click here to place this bet with DraftKings Sportsbook

Our NFL model has found another +EV touchdown bet for this week's action, which is in the game between the Jets and Bills. The bet is on the Jets' Breece Hall to score an anytime touchdown at odds of +160 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

With a probability of 47.6%, bettors are gaining an edge of 9.2% on the sportsbooks with this pick.

Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)

• Odds: +220 via FanDuel Sportsbook
• Edge: 12.0%
• Probability: 43.2%
• Game: Bears vs. Lions (1:00PM EST)
• Click here to place this bet with FanDuel Sportsbook

The NFL Week 11 touchdown bets continue in the Bears vs. Lions game, where our model has found a juicy edge of 12.0% on Justin Fields (CHI) at odds of +220 with FanDuel Sportsbook to score anytime.

Puka Nacua Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)

• Odds: +190 via FanDuel Sportsbook
• Edge: 7.8%
• Probability: 42.3%
• Game: Seahawks vs. Rams (8:30PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with FanDuel Sportsbook

The fifth bet that our NFL model has discovered an edge on for Week 11 is Puka Nacua to score an anytime touchdown in the Seahawks vs. Rams game. After simulating this game 10,000 times, our model has identified a solid 7.8% edge for bettors who take the +190 odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

MORE: NFL Props for Week 11, 2023

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best NFL odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

Today's NFL Touchdown Betting Picks - Week 11, 2023

All of Dimers' NFL first and anytime touchdown picks and predictions for Week 11 have been generated thanks to thousands of data-driven game simulations, providing reliable and accurate NFL predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use this week's NFL touchdown scorer picks for your personal gambling, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

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