NFL Trade Deadline Tracker: News and Betting Impact of Steelers, Commanders, Bengals Moves

The NFL trade deadline is set for Tuesday, November 5 at 4:00PM ET and teams are making deals up to the last minute to try and improve their teams or dump salary.

Many teams have already made high-profile moves, such as the Jets trading for Davante Adams from the Raiders, the Bills acquiring WR Amari Cooper from the Brownsand the Chiefs getting DeAndre Hopkins from the Titans, who just scored 2 TDs with his new team on Monday Night Football.

For our sake, these moves can have major ramifications in betting and fantasy football, ones that we won't truly know until we see these players in sync with their new teams.

In the meantime, we can use Dimers' advanced NFL analytical models to simulate these results, from individual games coming up in the NFL Week 10 schedule, or further down the line, like in the AFC, NFC and Super Bowl races using our NFL Futures predictions, all a part of our Dimers Pro subscription service.

So whether you're building NFL parlays, looking to make your latest fantasy football waiver wire pickup or bet on who will win the Super Bowl, see what our Dimers' data has to say about the most notable NFL trade deadline deals.

NFL Trade Deadline Moves and Impact

RB Khalil Herbert - Traded to Bengals

The Bengals haven't had a proper answer in their run game since Joe Mixon left for Houston, deploying Zack Moss and Chase Brown in tandem. Moss is expected to miss the rest of the season, so Cincy sent a 2025 7th-rounder to the Bears for Khalil Herbert, who hasn't played since Week 3. 

A backup/committee back in his first four season with Chicago, Herbert will likely take over Zack Moss's workload, but he'll have to prove he can outwork Chase Brown who's coming off his best game of the season.

With the Bengals playing on Thursday night, there's not much time for Herbert to get up to speed and our model agrees, giving Chase Brown a 49.3% TD probability and 109 rush + rec yard projection compared to Herbert's 26.4% and projection of 24 yards.

🏈 Bengals vs. Ravens Full Game Betting Preview

WR Mike Williams - Traded to Steelers

The Steelers very much need some WR help behind George Pickens, and they addressed that ahead of the deadline, sort of.

Did they bring in a wide receiver? Yes. It's also 30-year-old Mike Williams who's managed 12 catches for 166 yards this season. He was likely being underutilized in a Jets offense that couldn't get out of its own way, but Williams doesn't scream No. 2 option" and he's more of a field-stretcher than a route runner, not unlike Pickens.

While Williams may develop rapport with QB Russell Wilson and emerge as a true option in the Steelers somewhat new-look offense with Russ under center, we don't predict much this week, giving Williams just 22 receiving yards and a 15.3% TD probability in our first simulations since the trade.

WR Jonathan Mingo - Traded to Cowboys

In a head-scratcher, the 3-5 Cowboys, who just lost starting QB Dak Prescott to a hamstring injury and likely IR stint, sent their 2025 4th-rounder to the Panthers for second-year receiver Jonathan Mingo.

Not only is that a better pick than the Chiefs gave up for DeAndre Hopkins (come on Jerry Jones),  but it's a move that does nothing for this offense. Mingo may have some talent that has yet to be unlocked by the likes of Bryce Young, but the Cowboys' needs go so far beyond a WR3, it makes no sense.

Dallas has plummeted to a 6% probability to win the NFC East with their playoff hopes a prayer at best. With Mingo seeing just 12 targets all season, this doesn't even do anything for the prospects of the Panthers' WR corps.

The most interesting thing that will come from this game is if Mingo can score his first career touchdown against his former team when he returns to Bank of American stadium in Week 15.

CB Marshon Lattimore - Traded to Commanders

Huge move for the Commanders, acquiring 4x Pro-Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore from the freefalling Saints.

Lattimore is a shutdown corner who's made a career our of getting on his opponents' nerves, particularly Mike Evans of the Buccaneers, who he used to see twice a year.

The Commanders are going for it in Jayden Daniels' rookie season, and the QB doesn't need a ton of extra weapons on the offensive side, so they shored up their secondary with a player who can shut down opposing WRs for other playoff-hopeful teams, like A.J. Brown of the Eagles, Amon-Ra St. Brown on the Lions and Justin Jefferson of the Vikings.

Washington has a half-game lead over the Eagles, but our model still favors Philly, giving the Commanders a 24.7% probability to win the NFC East, which means you'll want fair odds for them at +300, a far cry from their current odds of +130.

DE Za'Darius Smith - Traded to Lions

The Lions replaced their defensive void created by the loss of Aidan Hutchinson by acquiring defensive end Za'Darius Smith from the Browns.

Smith has 65 sacks through 10 seasons in the NFL and gives the Lions some more juice for the stretch run, though they've largely looked unstoppable even in Hutchinson's absence.

The Lions were one of our model's pre-season favorites across the board and now they sit with a 28.9% probability to win the NFC, over 12% higher than our next team, the Eagles. Even with just a one game lead in the NFC North, we have them at a massive 77.5% probability claim the division crown. 

And in the Super Bowl race, we've got them just at 15.9% to win it all, just 1.6% behind our favorite, the undefeated Chiefs.

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