NFL Thanksgiving First and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions [2023]

The NFL is back for three massive Thanksgiving games, and our team of data analysts has run 10K data-driven simulations of each matchup in order to determine which players are most likely to score a touchdown and which are the best TD bets to make.

Today's NFL slate features big names such as Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb, with each of these guys projected to have a high probability of scoring a touchdown for their respective teams on Thursday.

NFL Thanksgiving Games:

• Packers vs. Lions: 12:30PM ET (FOX) 
• Commanders vs. Cowboys: 4:30PM ET (CBS)
• 49ers vs. Seahawks: 8:20PM ET (NBC)

In this article, you will find the following for today's games:

• First touchdown scorer predictions
• Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Touchdown scorer prop bets

This week's TD scorers are sponsored by Bet365, where new players can secure $150 in bonus bets just for betting $5 on any of the below players to score in Week 12.

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MORE: Dimers' Week 12 NFL Predictions are based on simulating every game 10,000 times

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions - NFL Thanksgiving, 2023

After simulating the Thanksgiving NFL slate 10,000 times, DimersBOT has determined the most likely players to score a touchdown across all of this today's action.

Player (Team)	Anytime Touchdown Probability
Christian McCaffrey (49ers)	64.2%
Tony Pollard (Cowboys)	60.8%
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)	58.4%
David Montgomery (Lions)	48.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)	46.6%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions)	42.8%
Brandon Aiyuk (49ers)	41.5%
AJ Dillon (Packers)	40.4%
Jayden Reed (Packers)	39.0%
Brandin Cooks (Cowboys)	38.3%

First Touchdown Predictions - NFL Thanksgiving, 2023

As well as providing you with the players who are most likely to score an anytime touchdown, DimersBOT also has the 10 players most likely to score the first touchdown in their respective games across all of the NFL action today.

Player (Team)	First Touchdown Probability
Christian McCaffrey (49ers)	19.2%
Tony Pollard (Cowboys)	15.3%
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)	14.7%
David Montgomery (Lions)	11.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)	11.3%
Brandon Aiyuk (49ers)	10.1%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions)	9.9%
AJ Dillon (Packers)	8.8%
Deebo Samuel (49ers)	8.7%
George Kittle (49ers)	8.5%

Keep in mind that these lists only show the players most likely to score an anytime or first touchdown in the Thanksgiving games, which does not necessarily mean that our model recommends betting on them.

To increase your chances of winning, it's important to look out for the best odds available, as well as checking out our recommended bets below.

NFL Touchdown Best Bets and Odds - Thanksgiving, 2023

Jayden Reed Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+260)

• Odds: +190
• Edge: 11.2%
• Probability: 39%
• Game: Packers vs. Lions (12:30PM ET)

For the opening game of the day between the Packers and Lions, our model has found the most value on Jayden Reed (GB). With a probability of 39% that he scores an anyime TD, we are gaining and edge of 11.2% on the +190 odds currently available with FanDuel Sportsbook.

If you're looking for a potentially bigger win, our model has also found value on Reed to score 2+ TDs (+2500) and the first touchdown of the game (+1800) 

Brandin Cooks Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+250)

• Odds: +250
• Edge: 9.8%
• Probability: 38.3%
• Game: Commanders vs. Cowboys (4:30PM ET)

The next best NFL touchdown bet for Thanksgiving football comes in the Commanders vs. Cowboys game, where our model has found an edge of 9.8% on Brandin Cooks from the Dallas Cowboys at odds of +250 with FanDuel Sportsbook to score an anytime touchdown.

Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)

• Odds: +180
• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 41.5%
• Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks (8:20PM ET)

Our NFL model has identified another +EV touchdown prop in today's final game, which sees the 49ers take on the Seahawks in the traditional TNF slot. The pick is for the 49ers' Brandon Aiyuk to score an anytime TD at odds of +180 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

With a probability of 41.5%, you can gain an edge of 5.8% with this bet.

With odds of +3428, a $10 parlay bet on these three Thanksgiving picks could result in a $342.80 payout! 

You can unlock a generous reward of $150 in bonus bets by placing a simple $5 wager on one of today's NFL touchdown picks (including the above parlay on all three) at DraftKings. Click ➡️ here ⬅️ to get started!

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best NFL odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

Today's NFL Touchdown Betting Picks - Thanksgiving, 2023

All of Dimers' NFL first and anytime touchdown picks and predictions for Thanksgiving football have been generated thanks to thousands of data-driven game simulations, providing reliable and accurate NFL predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use this week's NFL touchdown scorer picks for your personal gambling, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively, keeping in mind that prop bets, including TD scorers, often have higher odds and therefore less of a chance of winning than most straight up plays.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

More on NFL

This article is part of our NFL player props and NFL best bets series.

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