NFL Same Game Parlay Picks: Commanders vs. Eagles SGP for Thursday Night Football

Week 11 in the NFL kicks off with the Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles on TNF and we've got our +575 NFL Parlay picks ready to go.

This battle of NFC East teams will decide who sits atop the division for the next week as the 7-2 Commanders and 7-3 Eagles are neck and neck in this two-team race.

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+575 Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Commanders vs. Eagleson Primetime, Thursday Night Football.

MORE: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: Brian Robinson Jr. Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Our first leg targets the ground game as the Commanders welcome back RB Brian Robinson Jr. after a two-game absence. He's a full-go for Thursday Night and we're looking for him to clear this line for the fifth time this season. 

the Eagles defense is formidable, particularly to passers, allowing the second-fewest passing yards to opposing QBs in the league (186.4). Their rushing defense is no joke either, though they do allow 77.2 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.

Our model is projecting Robinson Jr. for 56.4 rushing yards, clearing his line by a full 12 yards.

Leg 2: Dallas Goedert Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Next up, we're looking at the Eagles passing game, specifically their TE Dallas Goedert who returned form injury last week. Before missing time with injury, Goedert cleared this mark in his first 4 games of the season, twice doing so on just 3 and 4 receptions. He has a reception of at least 14 yards in every game played this year, save for their matchup with the Browns when he exited after the first drive.

Washington is pretty stingy against the position, however, they simply haven't faced many good tight ends, with the exception of Mark Andrews, who tallied 66 yards in their matchup.

Dallas Goedert is an important piece of this offense when healthy and should see his looks, with our model projecting him for 41.7 receiving yards and a 66.6% probability to go over this mark.

Leg 3: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-110)

As always, we close out with our TD prop pick and it's on QB Jalen Hurts, who is racking them up at a rate higher than anyone else in the league.

Over his past four games, Hurts has rushed for eight touchdowns, including two games in which he scored a pair and another when he scored three. He is our most-likely TD scorer of the night at 54.5%, even ahead of Saquon Barkley, who's priced way out at -180.

Some other notes about Hurts in this hot streak - he's scored the last touchdown of the game three times and the first TD once while his pair of 2+TD games both came against NFC East teams. He gets a 15.4% probability to score a pair tonight.

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