NFL Same Game Parlay: Colts vs. Vikings SGP for Sunday Night Football Week 9

Sunday Night Football has arrived to close out Week 9's Sunday slate and with it, our latest Primetime Parlay powered by the DimersBOT, this one at +1000 odds.

It's a clash between the Minnesota Vikings who are coming off back-to-back losses and the Indianapolis Colts who hope to jumpstart their season by turning to veteran QB Joe Flacco in the wake of Anthony Richardson's struggles.

Flacco under center means the Indy receivers should see a nice boost (good for your fantasy teams, too) and we'll look to use that to our advantage.

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+1000 Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Colts vs. Vikings on Primetime, Sunday Night Football.

MORE: Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: Michael Pittman Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The first leg of this NFL parlay is on our top-projected receiver for Indianapolis, Michael Pittman.

With subpar QB play from Anthony Richardson, Pittman has gotten off to his slowest start since his rookie season with just 352 yards through 8 games played. However, the Colts just handed the keys to veteran QB Joe Flacco which should breathe some life back into this WR corps.

Pittman's best game came in a spot start for Flacco, with six catches for 113 yards on nine targets back in Week 4. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is seeing the most passes per game by opposing teams (41.3/gm) and ranks 30th in pass yards allowed per game with 263.0/game.

Our model projects Pittman to clear this with ease at a projection of 73 yards so lock him in for leg number one.

Leg 2: Justin Jefferson Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Our second leg is on another receiver to clear his line, though he's got to go a bit higher.

That shouldn't be a problem for Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who's cleared this line in four games this year, including a pair of 115+ yard games. A big play machine with a 25+ yard reception in every game this year, Jefferson has as much upside as any player in the league.

While teams like to attack Indy on the ground due to their bottom-three rushing defense, they're not much better against the pass, allowing one of the highest completion percentages in the league (27th worst) and over 225 passing yards per game.

We project Jefferson for 90 yards in this one. The Colts have allowed four 100-yard receivers this year (Nico Collins, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas and George Pickens). None of them are on Jetta's level. Give us JJ to clear his yards on primetime.

Leg 3: Josh Downs Anytime TD Scorer (+270)

As always, we close out our parlay with a TD prop. We don't usually go for odds this long, but like Pittman, Josh Downs has a chance to thrive with Flacco under center, as he scored in 2/3 previous games where Flacco played. 

Downs draws tons of targets, with 30 passes coming his way in those three Flacco games.

The Vikings defense is allowing roughly 2.0 passing TDs per game and we give Downs a 30.8% TD probability. That would make his fair odds just +225, identifying both a good matchup and value play here.

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