NFL Same Game Parlay Picks: Chiefs vs. Texans SGP for NFL Saturday Week 16

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Written by Dave Garofolo
Reviewed by Nick Slade
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With the help of our in-house NFL predictive model, we've built a +750 same game parlay for the AFC clash on Saturday afternoon between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans.

NFL Parlay Picks, NFL props, Same Game parlay, Chiefs, Texans, AFC
Joe Mixon is one of the featured legs in our Saturday NFL parlay.

Week 16 in the NFL is underway and continues with a pair of games featuring AFC teams, and we've got our +750 NFL Parlay picks ready to go.

We'll be targeting the first of the two games as two AFC contenders clash when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans. Patrick Mahomes is nursing a mild ankle sprain as the Chiefs look to keep a lock on the AFC's number one seed.

NFL, Parlay, NFL Parlay Picks, Texans, Nico Collins.

Can Nico Collins score his 7th touchdown of the NFL season?


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+750 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans NFL Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Chiefs vs. Texanson NFL Saturday.

PLAYER
PROP
PROBABILITY/
PROJECTION
ODDS
Joe Mixon (Texans)Over 62.5 Rush Yds73 Rush Yds
-115
DeAndre Hopkins (Chiefs)Over 40.5 Rec Yds53 Rec Yds
-115
Nico Collins (Texans)Anytime TD Scorer
41.7%+165

MORE: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: Joe Mixon Over 62.5 Rush Yards (-115)

First up is Texans running back Joe Mixon who's in the midst of what could end up as his best season yet, eight years into his career. He's on the verge of 1,000 yards for the sixth time and has cleared this in 7/11 games this season.

Three of those unders have come in his past five games, but he's not had two bad games in a row yet. In fact, he's rebounded each time with over 100 yards, a mark he's hit in every single game that he's cleared this line.

Kansas City boasts a strong rushing defense, but has been touched up a bit in their past three games, allowing 84 yards to Jerome Ford most recently, in a game they allowed 139 total rushing yards, as well as allowing Sincere McCormick (yes, a real person) to clear 62.5 three weeks ago. those backs are not even close to Joe Mixon's level.

We've got him for 73 yards and a 57.4% probability of going over.

Leg 2: DeAndre Hopkins Over 40.5 Rec Yards (-115)

Next up is DeAndre Hopkins, who hasn't had the explosive impact that many hoped he would when he arrived in Kansas City.

It's not for lack of volume - he's had 6+ targets in 5 games since joining the Chiefs, and as many as 9 three times. The Chiefs offense just hasn't been humming the way we're used to.

However, they'll have Marquise "Hollywood" Brown join the receiving corps for Saturday's tilt after missing the entire season to this point. Brown is a field-stretcher and while he may not make a massive impact in his first game back, he'll be a threat to the Houston defense who will have to commit to covering him, ideally opening up the middle of the field for Nuk.

We presently project Hopkins for 53 receiving yards and a 59.5% probability of going over.

Leg 3: Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+165)

We close out as we do most of our SGPs with a touchdown prop and for this one we're taking the Texans Alpha WR1, Nico Collins. 

Despite missing 5 games this season, Collins ranks among the Top 20 receiving TD leaders in the NFL with six. Since his return, he has two games without. One was his first game back in which the Texans let Joe Mixon run roughshod over the Cowboys, and Collins had a 70+ yard TD called back due to an offensive penalty on the first play, too. The other was a game in which he caught 8 passes for 119 yards on 11 targets, still getting his elite volume.

The Chiefs allow an average of at least 1 TD per game to opposing WRs, and have one of the worst redzone defenses in the league vs. opposing WRs.

Collins clocks in at 41.7% to score anytime from the DimersBOT, making fair odds of +140 and a bargain play at +165.

 

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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
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Written by
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

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