NFL Same Game Parlay Picks: Browns vs. Steelers SGP for Thursday Night Football

Week 12 in the NFL kicks off with the Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers on TNF and we've got our +750 NFL Parlay picks ready to go.

A cold, windy and potentially wet forecast sets the tone for some classic AFC North football as the first-place Steelers travel to Huntington Bank Stadium to face the last-place Browns, though the 3.5-point spread suggests this could be a closer game than the teams' records would suggest.

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+750 Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Browns vs. Steelers on Primetime, Thursday Night Football.

MORE: Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: Pat Freiermuth Over 18.5 Rec Yards (-110)

Can the Muth get "luth" on Thursday night? The Steelers' fan-favorite tight end has cleared this line in 7/10 games this season, and although those three unders have come in his past five games, the potentially unfavorable weather forecast could work in his favor tonight.

He missed this in just one game with Justin Fields under center, and now that Russell Wilson is spreading the ball around, he's not seeing quite as many targets, though he's hauled in at least 2 catches in every game this season.

Cleveland allows 4.1 receptions and 43.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season and we could see Wilson opt for the shorter game rather than pushing the ball downfield to guys like George Pickens and recent acquisition Mike Williams, who already had 0 targets in his second game.

Freiermuth gets a 25-yard projection from our model, along with a 56.3% probability to go over 18.5 yards.

Leg 2: Calvin Austin III Over 14.5 Rec Yards (-110)

Next up is another Steeler in the passing game, speedy gadget player Calvin Austin III. He's not a target hog by any means, maxing out at 6 targets in one game this year, but he's hit this mark with extreme consistency, particularly since Russell Wilson took over under center.

Save for last week when he tallied -1 yard in a game the Steelers could not generate any offense, Austin has cleared this in each game with Wilson and 6 of his past 8 games. In all but one of those, he cleared this mark on his longest catch, even going over with a lone reception twice. He's regularly targeted past the sticks with an 11.5 ADOT, meaning his usual role with a couple YAC yards is all he needs to cash this line. We project him for 29 receiving yards, double what we need.

Leg 3: Nick Chubb Anytime TD Scorer (+150)

As always, we close out with our TD pick of the night, this time on Browns RB Nick Chubb to find the endzone for the first time since his season debut in Week 7. 

Chubb could be a little extra motivated in this one. He'll face the Steelers for the first time since tearing his MCL in a Week 2 primetime game last season and it's hard to imagine that won't be lurking in his mind.

For all the Steelers' defensive prowess this season, they've allowed nearly 1 rushing TD per game and at least one in five straight games. This game is unlikely to be a shootout given the weather forecast, but we could still see the Browns drive the football, and with their kicker Dustin Hopkins missing 4 of his last 7 FG attempts from 40+ yards, they may be more inclined to go for it on 4th and short in Steelers territory. Chubb draws a 38.6% TD probability tonight making these odds right near our fair price.

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