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Saints vs. Buccaneers Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Monday Night Football on December 5, 2022
It’s always an intense battle when the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet — especially since Tom Brady’s arrival in Tampa — and we're goign to see them clash at Raymond James Stadium at 8:15PM ET on Monday, December 5.
The last matchup saw Brady destroy a tablet and the ejections of Tampa receiver Mike Evans and New Orleans defensive back Marshon Lattimore. The long-running Evans-Lattimore feud resumes on Monday night as the Buccaneers look to take control of the NFC South while the Saints attempt to play spoiler.
Tampa dusted off a three-game losing streak to end October to win two straight but then stumbled in Cleveland last Sunday to dip below .500 again. New Orleans has lost three of four, including its first shutout performance in more than 20 years.
Find out how we think this one will play out in our Saints vs. Buccaneers betting preview.
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Saints vs. Buccaneers Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- 50% shot the Bucs cover the -3.5 point spread
- 63% chance the Bucs win on the moneyline
- 55% probability Saints-Bucs goes Over 40.5
For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Saints vs. Buccaneers data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds and Betting Lines
Why Saints Will Cover The Spread
The Saints haven’t won consecutive games all season and have been maddening and inconsistent. They can get in Brady’s head, however, and their defense dominated for three quarters in Week 2 before caving down the stretch.
New Orleans ranks sixth in the league in passing defense and eighth in passing offense, which is a pretty good formula against Tampa.
Also, consider the Saints were without top playmaker Alvin Kamara in Week 2. Though Kamara has just one rushing touchdown in 10 games, he’s still averaging 4.1 yards per carry and adds another dimension in the passing attack.
Why Buccaneers Will Cover The Spread
It won’t be because of their running game. The Bucs rank at the bottom of the league in rushing, producing just 73 yards per game. Leonard Fournette, who is banged up, is grounding out fewer than 50 yards per game on his own and has only three touchdowns, so Tampa will continue to sink or swim with Brady and the defense. The team doesn't appear to be ready to completely lean on Rachaad White.
Tampa produced only 260 yards in beating New Orleans 20-10 in the first meeting, but the defense picked off Jameis Winston three times including Mike Edwards’ Pick 6 in the fourth quarter.
Why The Over Will Hit
Only the Chiefs got the Bucs involved in a good ole fashioned shootout this season, handing them a 41-31 defeat in Week 4. Since then, the winning team in Tampa’s seven games scored 21, 20, 21, 27, 16, 21 and 23, which doesn’t exactly invoke confidence in the over here.
But the Saints are unpredictable and the weather, sans for some rain, should allow for both offenses to bust out the playbook.
Why The Under Will Hit
In the last two meetings between these teams in Florida, the Bucs’ offense produced merely a field goal. The Saints won 9-0 last Dec. 19 at Raymond James Stadium and destroyed Tampa 38-3 there in 2020.
The Bucs deploy a stingy defense, ranking No. 10 overall, and these offenses went a combined 9-for-32 on third and fourth downs in the Week 2 matchup.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Lean: Saints +4
The Saints always get fired up to face Brady and beat him in four straight before a poor fourth quarter led to a 20-10 loss to Tampa in Week 2. Look for New Orleans to hang tough in a low-scoring affair.
Tony Bellissimo, with over 25 years of sports reporting and editing experience, has earned multiple New York State Press Association awards and oversees sports coverage for 30 high schools and several colleges on Long Island.
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