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NFL Playoffs NFC Championship Game: 49ers vs. Eagles Predictions, Sunday, January 29, 2023
The Philadelphia Eagles will have home-field advantage when they host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, January 29. These were the two most consistently dominant teams in the NFC all year, so it's fitting that they'll meet for a spot in Super Bowl LVII. With that in mind, find out how we think this one will play out in our Bengals vs. Chiefs betting preview. We're going to give you some in-depth analysis, as well as the NFL predictions from our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence. The big game is right around the corner, so we're pulling out all the stops. Let's have a fun couple of weeks, as this is one of the best parts of the year for sports bettors. And check out our Championship Sunday best bets, as our expert hit on 66% of his best bets this season!
RELATED: Predictions for both Conference Championship matchups
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49ers vs. Eagles Predictions
- Predicted score: Eagles 24 - 21 49ers
- 56% chance the Eagles cover the -2.5-point spread
- 62% chance the Eagles win on the moneyline
- 51% shot 49ers-Eagles stays Under 45.5
For the best NFL computer picks, check out our 49ers vs. Eagles data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
49ers vs. Eagles Odds and Betting Lines
Will The 49ers Cover The Spread?
The 49ers have the best defense in the NFL and that gives them a chance in every game they play. It's just going to come down to whether or not Brock Purdy can make the throws required to keep San Francisco's offense moving. Mr. Irrelevant didn't throw for a single touchdown last game, and it's hard to see the 49ers winning without him doing so against the Eagles. But we have seen him perform at a high level before, so it's not out of the question. He'll just need to be fearless in a tough road environment.
San Francisco will do everything it can to get the ball to Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey in space, but that'll be nearly impossible if Purdy isn't keeping Philadelphia's defense honest.
We should, however, note that the 49ers are 11-2 against the spread when facing teams with winning records in the second half of the season since the start of last year. So, you can't rule San Francisco out against elite competition, even without a good quarterback.
MORE: Check out our AFC Championship Game Preview
Will The Eagles Cover The Spread?
The Eagles have one of the most balanced teams in the league, so they will feel good about their chances here. While San Francisco is remarkable on the defensive side of the ball, Philadelphia isn't much worse. In fact, the Eagles were remarkable in their 38-7 win over the New York Giants last game. And their pass rush should be a huge factor here, as the crowd is going to give some of Philadelphia's defensive playmakers a ton of adrenaline.
The Eagles also don't have any holes on their offense, as Jalen Hurts is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. He gives Philadelphia an elite running game, while also having the accuracy required to hit the team's talented wideouts all over the field. And Dallas Goedert could also be an X-factor in this one.
Philadelphia just might be the better team in this one, and playing on its home field will only amplify that.
Why The Over Will Hit
Both of these offenses have the ability to make big plays, even with the 49ers having Purdy under center. San Francisco had actually gone Over in four straight games before facing the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round, and the quarterback had been dropping dimes in those games. Perhaps he'll find it again in the NFC Championship Game, making for an easy Over for bettors.
The Eagles are capable of winning games in a lot of different ways, so they won't be afraid to get involved in a shootout. They arguably have as much talent at the skill positions as the 49ers do, but they have a significant edge at quarterback.
RELATED: Betting The Over Is Sexy, But Betting The Under Is Smart
Why The Under Will Hit
The reality here is that these are two elite defensive teams and theres' a good chance that it ends up being the story of the game. The 49ers will work hard to put a plan in place to prevent Hurts from gashing their defense with his legs, and the Eagles are going to do their best to make Purdy be the one to beat them. And overall, as we get later in the year, defense becomes more important and games get lower in scoring.
The Under also happens to be 9-2 when San Francisco plays road games with totals of 45.5 or higher over the last two seasons.
49ers vs. Eagles Prediction
Lean: Eagles -2.5
Our model gives the Eagles a 61% chance of winning this game, and we don't see them doing that without covering this small spread. Philadelphia has been a team we've been high on throughout the year, and we like Nick Sirianni's team to get the job done here.
Zachary Cohen, a University of Wisconsin graduate, has written about betting and fantasy sports for prominent outlets like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel, and FOX Bet, with a strong focus on the NBA and college athletics.
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