NFL Playoffs Bracket: Wild Card Picks, Predictions and Our Best Super Bowl Odds For Every Team

The NFL Playoffs have arrived! The Super Wild Card Weekend action kicks off with a pair of games on Saturday and concludes on Monday night with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. We've consulted our model to break down each matchup and are delivering you our analytics-driven predictions for all six matchups.

Powered by Dimers' industry standard predictive analytics models, we're always looking for the best value in a wager. Whether in NFL best bets, the top NFL player props to bet on or in futures odds, there's always an edge to be found. 

You can find our model's outright winner prediction for each NFL game here, but in this article, we're going to include spread and totals for each game as well.

Don't forget to take advantage of today's best NFL promos across the sportsbooks, including BetMGM's legendary Bet $5, Get $158 promo that goes live today, Tuesday, January 9 at 12PM ET. Dimers broke the news of this exclusive promotion on Monday, and now you can take advantage and gear up the playoffs with some extra padding in your bankroll. Sign up for BetMGM here once the offer goes live!

NFL Wild Card Round Bracket

On Bye: Ravens and 49ers

Saturday, January 13

• (5) Browns at (4) Texans: 4:30PM ET
• (6) Dolphins at (3) Chiefs: 8:00PM ET

Sunday, January 14

• (7) Steelers at (2) Bills: 1:00PM ET
• (7) Packers at (2) Cowboys: 4:30PM ET
• (6) Rams at (3) Lions: 8:00PM ET

Monday, January 15

• (5) Eagles at (4) Buccaneers: 8:00PM ET

PLAYOFF PROMO: Bet $5, Get $158 to Celebrate the 58th Edition of the Big Game

 

AFC

#2 Buffalo Bills vs. #7 Pittsburgh Steelers Full Betting Preview

Bills Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 12.4%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +650 on FanDuel

The Bills are set to embark on their fifth consecutive playoff journey, kicking off this postseason with a home clash against the Steelers on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Buffalo looked like they would miss the playoffs as recently as Week 14, but turned it up down th e stretch and capitalized on the reeling Miami Dolphins to capture the AFC East crown yet again.

Notably, the Bills and Steelers didn't cross paths during the regular season and their last playoff encounter traces back to the 1995 divisional round, where the Steelers emerged victorious. As fate would have it, this marks the fourth postseason rendezvous between them, with the Steelers maintaining a 2-1 upper hand in previous matchups.

DimersBOT projects the Bills with a commanding 87% probability to win outright and thinks this game could clear its fairly low total of 35.5 with a 53% probability.

 

Steelers Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 1.1%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +13000 on FanDuel

Life finds a way, at least for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Needing an assist from either Jacksonville or Buffalo on Sunday, Pittsburgh got what they needed with a Jags loss. They once again find themselves in the postseason spotlight, eager to overturn a victory drought that dates back to 2016, as they gear up for a face-off against the Bills on Sunday at 1PM. 

Quarterback Mason Rudolph has emerged as a key catalyst in the Steelers' resurgence, especially during the final three weeks of the season. His renewed confidence in launching deep passes not only breathed life into the offense but also paved the way for a more dynamic offense. Najee Harris has benefitted out of the backfield from this new balance and the Steelers' offense achieved the remarkable feat of scoring over 30 points in consecutive games during Weeks 16-17, something they've not done in three years.

As mentioned, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored (-520) but our model does think the Steelers have a shot at covering the ten-point spread. Currently, you can get the Steelers at -110 on BetMGM, where their 53% probability presents a fair price, though without any true value to be had. But, a $5 bet will net you $158 on bonus bets at BetMGM, so it's far from the worst play.

#3 Kansas City Chiefs vs. #6 Miami Dolphins Full Betting Preview

Chiefs Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 8.8%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +1000 on DraftKings

In the upcoming wild-card round, the Chiefs are set to host the Dolphins on Saturday night at 8PM ET, airing exclusively on Peacock. The teams last clashed in Week 9, with Kansas City securing a 21-14 victory in Frankfurt, Germany. This marks the Chiefs' impressive 14th consecutive home playoff game since 2016. These teams last met in the playoffs in the 1994 wild-card round, a game the Dolphins won 27-17.

One key factor instilling confidence in the Chiefs is their robust defense, ranking as the second-best in the league with an average of 17.1 points surrendered per game. This defensive prowess has consistently kept the Chiefs competitive and provides a strong foundation for success. Despite sputtering offensively at times, the Chiefs enter the wild-card round with upside and a defensive formula for securing victories.

The Chiefs are favored at -186 on the moneyline at their current best price and get a 59% probability to come away with the win. The total is set at 44, with our model currently projecting a coin flip in that market.

 

Dolphins Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 5.1%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +1600 on FanDuel

The Dolphins are making consecutive playoff appearances, but seek their first postseason win since the 2000 season. In their Week 9 encounter in Frankfurt, Germany, the Dolphins mounted a comeback but ultimately succumbed to the Chiefs, trailing 21-0 early and losing 21-14. Historically, Miami holds a 3-0 playoff record against Kansas City.

The Dolphins draw hope from their potent offense, boasting top-tier playmakers even at 80% strength. The dynamic performance of RB De'Von Achane and the explosiveness of key players like Tyreek Hill provide Miami with the ability to score at any time, especially when allowed to set the game's tempo. Health will be absolutely critical to this team, who've already taken hits to their defense with key injuries to Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. The statuses of Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are also up in the air as of right now.

Those injuries play a big role in the Dolphins being underdogs in this game, despite being the superior team on paper this season. Arrowhead Stadium is a difficult place t play, especially in January and DimerBOT gives Miami a 41% probability to win. However, that does come with value, as their +165 odds on BetMGM imply just a 38% chance. They're also a great value to cover the 3.5-point spread at a 59% probability, good for an 8.4% edge. Hit the button below to bet this at BetMGM and score your $158 bonus for the playoffs.

 

#4 Houston Texans vs. #5 Cleveland Browns Full Betting Preview

Texans Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 0.8%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +4500 on FanDuel

The Texans are gearing up to host the Browns on Saturday at 4:30PM ET, marking the first playoff encounter between the two teams and Houston's first playoff game since 2019. In their Week 16 clash, also at NRG Stadium, the Texans faced a setback against the Browns, losing 36-22, with quarterback C.J. Stroud sidelined due to a concussion. Notably, the Texans allowed Browns quarterback Joe Flacco to amass 368 passing yards in that game.

Despite challenges, the Texans draw hope from their ability to triumph over mid-range teams and contenders when performing at their best. Victories against the Jaguars, Buccaneers, and Bengals, including the latter during their four-game winning streak, showcase the team's potential. With Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud leading the charge, Houston carries a belief that they can emerge victorious against any opponent, emphasizing their resilience and determination as they enter the playoff matchup against the Browns.

Unfortunately, the DimersBOT feels much different. Despite being one of the closer matchups on the moneyline with Houston as +124 underdogs, our model gives them just a 38% probability to pull out the win. Additionally, a 44% probability to cover the 2.5-point spread presents no value there either.

 

Browns Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 1.7%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +3500 on FanDuel

The Browns are set for their first playoff appearance in three seasons when they face the Texans. As mentioned, Cleveland dominated Houston in their Week 16 meeting, propelled by wide receiver Amari Cooper's stellar performance with 11 receptions for a franchise-record 265 yards and two touchdowns.

The Browns carry a strong sense of optimism into the postseason, primarily due to their formidable defense, widely regarded as one of the NFL's best. Spearheaded by pass-rusher and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Myles Garrett, and lockdown cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr., Cleveland's defense has consistently stifled opponents in the passing game. This defensive prowess positions the Browns as a formidable force, capable of posing significant challenges to any team they might face.

The odds are a little juicy, but at -145 on the moneyline, you're still getting value in the Browns as favorites, with a 3% edge against their 63% probability. You'll find the same edge on the 2.5-point spread at -115 and a 56% probability, so backing the Browns for their first playoff win since 2020 looks like the play.

 

NFC

#2 Dallas Cowboys vs. #7 Green Bay Packers Full Betting Preview

Cowboys Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 11.7%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +750 on FanDuel

The Cowboys are poised for their third consecutive playoff appearance, this time against the Packers on Sunday at 4:30PM ET.  Although the teams did not face each other this season, this matchup marks the ninth time they've crossed paths in the playoffs, with the series standing at a 4-4 tie. Something's gotta give on Sunday. Notably, Dallas has dropped the last two encounters, including a heartbreaking 34-31 walk-off loss to the Packers at home in the 2016 divisional round, and the fabled "Dez caught it" game in the 2014 postseason.

Seeking to break a 27-year Super Bowl drought, the team looks to capitalize on the exceptional performance of QB Dak Prescott, the unstoppable force of receiver CeeDee Lamb who's coming off a franchise record-setting season, and a defense capable of shutting down opponents with a potent pass rush and a knack for forcing turnovers.

Dallas is one of the heavier favorites of the weekend at - 350 odds on BetMGM and get a 72% probability to win according to our model. However, they get just a 44% probability to cover the 7.5-point spread according to DimersBOT, so the value isn't there on this side.

 

Packers Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 1.0%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +9000 on FanDuel

This marks the ninth postseason encounter between the two franchises, with the series standing at an even 4-4. Now, the PAckers face the coach who was at the helm of those last two victories, Mike McCarthy.

The Packers' chances lie in the hands of promising young quarterback Jordan Love, who shows significant potential after riding the pine behind Aaron Rodgers for his career to date. Supported by a cast of young, dynamic pass-catchers like Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson, the Packers boast a versatile offensive arsenal. Adding to their offensive strength is the veteran prowess of running back Aaron Jones, who returned from injury to show he's not done yet. 

You can find value on the Packers here, as they get a 56% probability to cover the 7.5 points and at their odds of -110, you get a 3.4% edge in the odds (should be -130). Those best odds are at BetMGM, where a $5 bet on Green Bay will net you $158 in bonuses. 

#3 Detroit Lions vs. #6 Los Angeles Rams Full Betting Preview

Lions Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 4.1%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +2300 on FanDuel

In a long-awaited playoff showdown, the Lions are set to host the Rams in the wild-card round on Sunday at 8PM in a historic moment for Detroit as it marks their first home playoff game since 1993. Eager to break a playoff victory drought dating back to 1991, the Lions are making their first postseason appearance since 2016. 

Perhaps the bigger storyline lies with the quarterbacks. Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who spent his initial five seasons in Los Angeles and led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018 will face Matt Stafford who spent most of his career in Detroit, before leading the Rams to a Super Bowl LV1 victory.

The Lions will lean on their diverse array of offensive weapons, featuring playmakers like wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, and hopefully promising rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who left Week 18 with a knee injury and whose status is up in the air. Dan Campbell has the tools to lead this team into a potentially hot rematch with the Cowboys in round 2, as long as Jared Goff can limit his turnovers.

The Lions are +100 to cover the -3.5-point spread over at BetMGM and DimersBOT agrees, making this one a 50/50 shot on the spread. Not exactly value, but you could always do worse than fair odds.

 

Rams Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 2.3%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +5000 on FanDuel

#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. #5 Philadelphia Eagles Full Betting Preview

Buccaneers Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 1.0%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +6600 on BetMGM

The Buccaneers are making their fourth consecutive playoff appearance off their third-straight division title and start it with a familiar opponent, as they will host the Eagles on Monday to close out the Wild Card round. These teams met in Week 3 in Tampa Bay, a 25-11 Eagles win in which the Bucs were held to 174 yards of total offense. Tampa Bay has done well against the Eagles in the playoffs though, winning three of five meetings.

The Bucs found a brand of winning football behind QB Baker Mayfield who inherited the offense from Tom Brady. Mayfield was at the best he's ever been this season, throwing for over 4,000 yards, 28 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. The defense rebounded in the second half of the season after losing the grip on their stout rushing defense from the early part of the year. The offense will need to get back to its scoring ways, though, as the 9 points they scored against the Panthers to seal the division won't cut it.

Though the Eagles have been in freefall, our model thinks that the Bucs will be outmatched, giving them just a 38% probability to win and a 44% probability to cover, meaning there's no value in either their +128 or +100 odds.

 

Eagles Outlook

DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 8.2%

Best Super Bowl Odds: +1600 on DraftKings

The Eagles are set for their third consecutive playoff appearance, after coming up short in last year's Super Bowl. This marks the sixth postseason meeting between these teams, with the Bucs holding a 3-2 advantage.

Despite recent challenges, the Eagles must lean on the potency of their offense, considered one of the most talented units in the NFL. Quarterback Jalen Hurt operates behind a robust offensive line and alongside dynamic receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, though both are currently questionable for this game.

The Eagles need to right the ship with their offense and minimize turnovers on offense. As they enter the playoff clash with the Buccaneers, the Eagles aim to leverage their offensive prowess as a key factor for success in the postseason.

Our model finds some value in the Eagles on the moneyline, as their -150 odds imply a 60% chance, while we project them with a 62% probability. And to celebrate the playoffs, a $5 wager on Philadelphia to win could net you $158 in bonus bets by signing up with BetMGM here.

Betting these matchups can add an extra layer of excitement to your Sunday (and Saturday) wagers as there’s so much more at stake in every play than your usual NFL slate. No matter how you get it on the action, be sure to use Dimers’ world-class best NFL bets, top NFL player props and game-by-game NFL predictions.