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NFL Playoffs AFC Championship Game: Bengals vs. Chiefs Predictions, Sunday, January 29, 2023
In a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game, the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will battle for a spot in Super Bowl LVII on Sunday, January 29. This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Kansas City fans will be hoping to rattle Joe Burrow and Co. With that in mind, find out how we think this one will play out in our Bengals vs. Chiefs betting preview. We're going to give you some in-depth analysis, as well as the NFL predictions from our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence. The big game is right around the corner, so we're pulling out all the stops. Let's have a fun couple of weeks, as this is one of the best parts of the year for sports bettors. And check out our Championship Sunday best bets, as our expert hit on 66% of his best bets this season!
RELATED: Predictions for both Conference Championship matchups
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Bengals vs. Chiefs Predictions
- Predicted score: Bengals 23 - 25 Chiefs
- 52% probability the Bengals cover the +2.5-point spread
- 57% chance the Chiefs win on the moneyline
- 51% shot Bengals-Chiefs goes Over 47.5
For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Bengals vs. Chiefs data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds and Betting Lines
Will The Bengals Cover The Spread?
Well, they're the hottest team in the NFL right now. Cincinnati has won each of its last 10 games, with the team also having covered in eight of those. Things looked a little scary after an 0-2 start to the year, but the Bengals quickly showed us why they were knocking on the door of winning a Super Bowl last year. And with Burrow under center, an elite group of pass-catchers and a rock-solid defense, it shouldn't surprise anyone if Cincinnati wins this game outright.
The Bengals are also 10-0 against the spread in road games with a total of 45.5 or higher over the last two seasons. They have won those games by an average of 11.0 points per game. And overall, Cincinnati has a slight edge on defense, as the team was 11th in defensive DVOA this season. Kansas City was just 17th.
MORE: Check our our NFC Championship Game Preview
Will The Chiefs Cover The Spread?
Patrick Mahomes is on the Chiefs and that gives them a chance to win and cover against anyone. Although the star quarterback did hurt himself against the Jacksonville Jaguars, so it'll be interesting to see what type of condition he's in for this one.
For the Chiefs, the outcome of this game will ultimately come down to how the team handles the task of covering the Bengals' elite wideouts. Joe Mixon hasn't been able to get much going in the ground game, so slowing down the passing game of Cincinnati would pretty much guarantee a Kansas City win. Home-field advantage will be big here.
Why The Over Will Hit
Any time you have Burrow and Mahomes as the quarterbacks in a game, there's a good chance the Over will cash. The Chiefs were first in the league in points per game this season (29.2) and the Bengals were seventh (26.1). With that said, an average week for both offenses will result in an easy Over.
Also, the Bengals just put up 27 points in a snowy game in Buffalo, so the cold might not guarantee a poor offensive performance on their end. And the Chiefs should be used to it by now, as they've been playing at this time of year since drafting Mahomes.
RELATED: Betting The Over Is Sexy, But Betting The Under Is Smart
Why The Under Will Hit
While the offensive firepower in this game is undeniable, the defenses probably don't get enough credit. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games, and the Bengals just held the Buffalo Bills to only 10 points in the Divisional Round.
With this set to be another game played in colder conditions, it's just not hard to see a scenario in which this is a low-scoring game. Both defenses will be doing everything they can to avoid getting beat over the top.
The Under is also 14-3 in games the Bengals have played as underdogs over the last two seasons.
Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction
Lean: Under 47.5
The majority of the bets in this game are going to pour in on the Over, which is natural with two star quarterbacks on the field. But this is going to be a physical football game, with both teams fighting for every inch. The Under is also our DimersBOT's favorite pick for this game.
Zachary Cohen, a University of Wisconsin graduate, has written about betting and fantasy sports for prominent outlets like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel, and FOX Bet, with a strong focus on the NBA and college athletics.
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