NFL Playoff and Division Clinching Scenarios in Week 18 - Our Best Bets for the Regular Season Finale

Who Will Make the NFL Playoffs in Week 18?

As the NFL regular season hurtles towards its climax, Week 18 promises to be a spectacle of intense competition and high stakes. The playoff picture is currently a swath of clinching scenarios, standings, and division races that will determine which teams will secure coveted spots in the postseason. Now, we delve into the playoff landscape, dissecting key matchups and highlighting the teams facing the most pressure as their battles for a chance at postseason glory hang in the balance.

Week 18 is synonymous with volatility as teams jockey for position in the standings. The article outlines the current standings, shedding light on the tight races within divisions and the intense competition for playoff seeding. For some teams, a single victory or defeat could mean the difference between securing a home-field advantage throughout the playoffs or hitting the road for a wildcard matchup. The stakes have never been higher as teams strive to leave an indelible mark on the postseason landscape.

RELATED: Three players who could get PAID by triggering bonuses in Week 18

Stay ahead of the game with Dimers’ best NFL bets and our detailed game-by-game previews in our NFL Predictions hub, and our up-to-the-minute NFL Futures odds, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics models known as DimersBOT. We always help you find the most valuable odds at the best sportsbooks to give you an edge every single day.

NFC Clinching Scenarios

Dallas Cowboys

At 11-5, the Cowboys control their destiny and can secure the NFC East title with a win against Washington, OR a tie combined with a Philadelphia tie or loss.

DimersBOT says: At an 83% probability of beating Washington and clinching the NFC East, Dallas looks like they'll avoid a critical upset, although DimersBOT projects Washington with a 56% probability to cover the 13-point spread at -108 for some value.

Philadelphia Eagles

Though tied with the Cowboys at 11-5, the Eagles are behind on the tiebreaker and to clinch the NFC East title, they’ll need both a win over the Giants or a tie combined with a Dallas loss.

DimersBOT says: The Eagles get a commanding 71% probability to beat the Giants, but they're at just a 10.1% chance of getting the division title over the Cowboys.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

To clinch the NFC South title, the Buccaneers just need to win on the road against Carolina OR via a tie along with a New Orleans loss or tie. They can also secure a playoff berth with a tie, a Seattle loss, and a Green Bay loss or tie.

DimersBOT says: Not only does DimersBOT give the Bucs a 74% probability of winning and punching their playoff ticket with an NFC South title, but it also identifies value in them to cover the -4.5 spread, too, with a 54% probability against the -104 odds on FanDuel.

Atlanta Falcons

Even at 7-9, the Falcons have an outside shot to clinch the NFC South title with a victory over New Orleans and a Tampa Bay loss to Carolina.

DimersBOT says: A 12.6% probability of winning the NFC South offers no edge in their +640 odds, but here's what's interesting: a parlay of Panthers ML and Falcons ML only pays out at +575 on the same sportsbook, which is the exact scenario Atlanta needs, so make sure you get the best price if you're rolling dice on Atlanta.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints can clinch the NFC South title with a win against Atlanta and a Tampa Bay loss or tie. For a playoff berth, they need a win, a Seattle loss or tie, and a Green Bay loss or tie.

DimersBOT says: Unfortunately for the Saints, although our model projects them with a 62% probability to beat the Falcons, it doesn't look like help is coming from the Bucs and there's no value in their +375 odds to win the division at just a 17.5% probability.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks can clinch a playoff berth with a win against Arizona and a Green Bay loss or tie, or a tie along with a Green Bay loss and a Tampa Bay loss or tie, or a tie combined with a Green Bay loss and a New Orleans loss or tie.

DimersBOT says: A 58% probability of covering the -2.5-point spread against the Cardinals bodes well for Seattle's first step, but our model says the Packers are just as likely to beat the Bears as Seattle is to beat the Cardinals, meaning it's no dice for the Hawks.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers can secure a playoff berth with a win against Chicago, or a tie combined with a Seattle loss or tie and a New Orleans loss or tie, or a tie along with a Seattle loss and a Tampa Bay loss, or a tie combined with a Seattle tie and a Tampa Bay loss or tie, or a tie along with a Seattle loss and a New Orleans loss.

DimersBOT says: The Packers get a 62% probability to lock up their playoff spot, and $500K for Jordan Love, by beating the Bears in Week 18. They're -3 on the spread with a 50% chance to cover, so there isn't much value to be had here.

Minnesota Vikings

For the Vikings to clinch a playoff berth, they need a miracle scenario with all of the following:

• A win against Detroit
• A Green Bay loss
• A Seattle loss
• Either a Tampa Bay loss or New Orleans loss

DimersBOT says: 

• 34% probability to beat Detroit
• 38% probability of Green Bay loss
• 38% probability of Seattle loss
• 26% probablity of Tampa Bay loss, 38% for New Orleans

AFC Clinching Scenarios

Houston Texans - POSTSEASON CLINCHED

In a crucial Saturday showdown at 8:15 p.m. ET, the Houston Texans aim to secure the AFC South title. For a division clinch, they need a victory AND for Jacksonville to lose or tie. Additionally, a playoff berth is within reach with simply a win OR via a tie, as long as Jacksonville loses and Pittsburgh loses or ties.

DimersBOT says: A 17% probability to win the AFC South at +450 doesn't offer any value, but the Texans are favored by DimersBOT at 55% to beat the Colts, so if you truly think the Jaguars lose, then you should beat Houston to win the division rather than the moneyline.

Indianapolis Colts - ELIMINATED

On the flip side of that same matchup, the 9-7 Indianapolis Colts jockey for their own playoff appearance. To clinch the AFC South title, the Colts must win and have the Jaguars lose or tie, OR tie with Jacksonville losing. For a playoff berth, they just need to win OR tie along with a Pittsburgh loss or tie.

DimersBOT says: Virtually the same scenario for the Colts, although we give them a 19.4% probability to win the division against their +430 odds, which should be +400 per our model. They should be at least +125 for fair value to beat the Texans.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Regardless of who wins Saturday's AFC South battle, to clinch the division title, Jacksonville just needs to win against the Titans on Sunday OR can escape with a tie should the Indianapolis-Houston game also end in a tie. They can also secure a playoff berth with a tie plus a Pittsburgh loss or tie, OR by this miracle scenario: Pittsburgh loses, Denver loses or ties, and there's no tie in the Indianapolis-Houston game.

DimersBOT says: The Jaguars get a 69% probability to win the division and a commanding 71% probability to lock it up by beating the Titans. There's no value in their -215 (moneyline) and -185 (division) odds, so if you're looking at thies market, the plays are the Colts or Texans.

Pittsburgh Steelers

On the back of Mason Rudolph, the Steelers can clinch a playoff berth in the following scenarios:

• Pittsburgh win plus Buffalo loss
• Pittsburgh win plus Jacksonville loss or tie
• Pittsburgh win plus Houston-Indianapolis tie
• Pittsburgh tie plus Jacksonville loss plus no tie in Houston-Indianapolis
• Jacksonville loss plus Denver win plus no tie in Houston-Indianapolis

DimersBOT says: The miracle scenarios begin with a Pittsburgh win and a 58% probability to do so as the Steelers get a Ravens team resting several starters. However, the value is still all on the Ravens, whose 42% probability to win offers a 3.9% edge at appealing +160 odds.

Miami Dolphins

• The 11-5 Dolphins will clinch the AFC East title with a win or tie in their matchup against Buffalo on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET. This game will determine the winner of the AFC East.

DimersBOT says: Miami has already locked up a spot in the postseason but at a 39% probability to win this game and the division, it appears it will be as a Wild Card team. and should be closer to +160 instead of +135.

Buffalo Bills

Like the Dolphins, the 10-6 Bills can clinch the AFC East title with a win. They can also secure a playoff berth with a tie, OR via any of the following scenarios:

• Pittsburgh loses or ties
• Jacksonville loses or ties
• Houston-Indianapolis ends in a tie

DimersBOT says: The Bills punch their postseason ticket and clinch another AFC East title with a 61% probability of a road win over Miami, giving fair value in their -154 odds on FanDuel, slightly better than their -160 odds to win the division.

Betting these matchups can add an extra layer of excitement to your Sunday (and Saturday) wagers as there’s so much more at stake in every play than your usual NFL slate. No matter how you get it on the action, be sure to use Dimers’ world-class best NFL bets, top NFL player props and game-by-game NFL predictions.