NFL Player Prop Watch: How Incentives and Milestones Could Impact Performance in Week 18

Heading into the final week of the NFL season, there are plenty of contact-based incentives and NFL milestones at stake that could impact player performance and make certain NFL player props more valuable to bet in Week 18. At Dimers, we always strive to give you some in-depth analysis, as well as the NFL predictions from our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence. The Super Bowl is right around the corner, so now is the time to build up the bankroll heading into the playoffs.

RELATED: Dimers' NFL Bet Hub features best bets and props for every game of the 2022-23 season

NFL Player Milestones to Watch in Week 18

Player	Milestone	Stat
Patrick Mahomes	Needs 430 passing yards to set the NFL record	Facing the Raiders' #30-ranked secondary
Justin Jefferson	Needs 194 receiving yards to set the NFL record	Jefferson recorded 154 yards vs. CHI earlier this season

Some of the best players in the sport have reason to go big in NFL Week 18. While it's always hard to determine what each team's motivation levels will be ahead of time, there's no doubt these three stars will be on their A-game as they chase individual milestones.

The Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes needs 430 passing yards against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders secondary to become the NFL's all-time single-season passing leader, and we like his chances.

The Minnesota Vikings' Justin Jefferson needs nearly 200 yards to become the NFL's single-season receiving yards record holder, but he nearly hit that mark against the Chicago Bears earlier this season.

These aren't the only players with reasons to chase a big week though. Here are a few with money-based incentives:

NFL Player Incentives to Watch in Week 18

Player	Incentive	Stat
Carl Lawson	Needs one sack for a $600k bonus	Facing the Dolphins' #31-ranked O-Line
Christian Kirk	Needs two catches for a $500k bonus, needs 91 yards for another $500k bonus	Kirk's player prop is set at 56.5 yards
Gerald Everett	Needs five catches for a $250k bonus	Everett has 5+ catches in 50% of his games
Zay Jones	Needs two catches for a $250k bonus, needs 98 yards for a $500k bonus	Facing the Titans, a bottom-10 ranked secondary
DeAndre Carter	Needs two catches for a $250k bonus	Had two catches on three targets last week
Tyler Higbee	Needs 13 yards for a $500k bonus	Has failed to hit this in four of last six games, but is playing over 90% of snaps
Preston Smith	Needs 1.5 sacks for a $1Million bonus	Had two pressures in Week 9 vs. Detroit
Jamaal Williams	Needs six rushing yards for a $250k bonus	Ran 24 times for 81 yards against the Packers in Week 9

While we would certainly love to see all of these players surpass these marks and cash in, there are certain players in this group that seem more likely to actually reach these goals.

The Detroit Lions' Jamaal Williams feels certain to notch 6+ rushing yards, as the Lions may be playing for a playoff spot and he has been their leading rusher all season long.

Christian Kirk is likely to tally 2+ receptions, as he has done so in 15 of 16 games, as is the Jaguars' Zay Jones, who has 2+ receptions in 14 of 15 games for Jacksonville.

After sorting through this list, we have identified five props that have the most value to bet on in NFL Week 18.

We recommend betting this player props with DraftKings Sportbook, where new users can throw down just $5 to score $200 in free bets here.

Top NFL Player Props to Bet in Week 18

1. Patrick Mahomes Over 319.5 passing yards (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook
2. Christian Kirk Over 56.5 receiving yards (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
3. Zay Jones Over 50.5 receiving yards (-110) at DratKings Sportsbook
4. Justin Jefferson Over 90.5 receiving yards (Projected Line) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Where to Bet Week 18 NFL Player Props

DraftKings Sportsbook

If you haven't already, you should consider signing up for DraftKings ➡️ here ⬅️ as in addition to NFL player props, you can turn a $5 pre-game moneyline bet on any game into a free $200 if your team wins. That's a great way to build a bankroll in Week 18. You can find all of our DimersBOT NFL player prop projections, along with NFL predictions, Week 18 best bets, Super Bowl futures, and more.