NFL Picks Straight Up: Week 4, 2023

Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us, and we've used our powerful predictive analytics model to give you straight up NFL picks for all 16 games.

Here a week late? Check out our NFL Straight Up Picks for Week 5.

Gain the edge in NFL pick 'em contests by following our data-driven NFL picks for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season. These picks are based on over 10,000 simulations of every NFL game.

There are 16 games on the slate for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season, beginning with the Detroit Lions playing the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night and ending with the Seattle Seahawks taking on the New York Giants on Monday night.

These straight up picks for Week 4 are brought to you by Bet365, which has a tasty Bet $1, Get $365 in Bonus Bets offer for new users.

Simply bet $1 on any of the NFL picks below to get $365 in bonus bets to use on the rest of the Week 4 NFL slate!

See below for a full breakdown of how likely each team is to win in NFL Week 4.

Straight Up NFL Picks - Week 4

Here are our Week 4 NFL predictions, which show how likely it is that each NFL team will win its game this week.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

The Lions take on the Packers at Lambeau Field on Thursday to start Week 4. According to our model, the Lions have a 55% chance of winning, while the Packers have a 45% chance.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers is at Lambeau Field on Thursday, September 28 at 8:15pm EDT.

All times stated in this article are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

In this week's game between the Falcons and the Jaguars, Jacksonville is more likely to win. Our prediction model gives the Jaguars a 58% chance of winning. On the other hand, there is a 42% chance that the Falcons will win.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars is at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 9:30am.

MORE: Super Bowl Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans

We are picking the Steelers to win their game against the Texans this week, with our trusted NFL model projecting a 62% win probability for the road team. The Texans have a 38% chance of winning at NRG Stadium.

If you're looking to bet on this clash, Bet365 has the Texans listed as +3 underdogs, whilst the Steelers' moneyline odds are at -155.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans is at NRG Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00pm.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts

According to our predictive analytics model, the Colts are the team to beat in this game, with their win probability at 55%. The Rams, on the other hand, have a 45% chance of winning.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts is at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00pm.

MORE: NFL Best Bets

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers

The Vikings have a 65% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Panthers' 35% chance of victory. This makes the Minnesota Vikings our pick to win at Bank of America Stadium.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers is at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00pm.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints are favored to win their Week 4 matchup, with our model giving them a 63% chance, while the Buccaneers enter the weekend with a 37% chance of causing an upset at Caesars Superdome.

When it comes to betting on this game, Bet365 has the Buccaneers' moneyline odds set at +134, with the home team Saints listed as -3 favorites.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints is at Caesars Superdome on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00pm.

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

After 10,000 simulations of Commanders vs. Eagles this Sunday, our model projects the Eagles as the more likely winners with a probability of 76%. Their opponents the Commanders have a 24% chance of getting the win on the road.

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles is at Lincoln Financial Field on Washington, October 1 at 1:00pm.

MORE: NFL Player Props

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

We are picking the Bills in this matchup, with the Bills given a 59% chance of winning, while the Dolphins have a 41% win probability.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills is at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00pm.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

The next game of Week 4 sees the Bengals take on the Titans at Nissan Stadium.

We are predicting the Bengals to win with projected win chance of 61%, while the Titans are projected to have a win chance of 39%.

As for the Vegas betting odds here, Bet365 has the Titans listed as +2.5 underdogs, with the Bengals' moneyline odds posted at -130.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans is at Nissan Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00pm.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

The likely winner of this matchup is the Browns who have a projected win chance of 61% according to DimersBOT. On the other side of this matchup, the Ravens have a projected win probability of 39%.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns is at Cleveland Browns Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00pm.

MORE: Best NFL Bets Today

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears

We have run our powerful NFL model over this week’s Broncos-Bears clash 10,000 times, with the Broncos coming out as the team to pick. Of those 10,000 simulations, the Broncos won 6,350 times, with the Bears winning on 3,650 occasions.

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears is at Soldier Field on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00pm.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Next up is the game between the Raiders and Chargers, with our model projecting the home team as the more likely victor, with Chargers rated as a 70% chance of getting the W. The Raiders on the other hand are projected to have a 30% chance of winning.

For those interested in betting on this matchup, Bet365 has the Raiders' moneyline odds set at +205 for this road game, whilst the hosting Chargers are listed as -6 favorites.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers is at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 4:05pm.

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys

Our next straight up pick this week is for the Cowboys to get the win against the Patriots. After running 10,000 simulations of this matchup, the Dallas have a win probability of 74%, with the Patriots at 26%.

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys is at AT&T Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 4:25pm.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

With a win probability of 91% on Sunday afternoon, our staight up pick for this game is the 49ers, while their opponent, the Cardinals, have a projected win chance of 9%.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers is at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 4:25pm.

MORE: NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets

The team to pick here is the Chiefs who have a 84% chance of winning their matchup against the Jets this Sunday night.

Looking at the betting odds for this Sunday Night Football clash, Bet365 has the Jets listed as +9.5 underdogs at home, with the Chiefs' moneyline odds available at -420.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets is at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, October 1 at 8:20pm.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants

Our pick to win the final game of Week 4 is Giants, who have a win probability of 56%. Their opponents are projected to have a 44% chance of getting the W.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants is at MetLife Stadium on Monday, October 2 at 8:15pm.

NFL Picks This Week Straight Up [Week 4, 2023]

• Lions (55% win probability)
• Jaguars (58%)
• Steelers (62%)
• Colts (55%)
• Vikings (65%)
• Saints (63%)
• Eagles (76%)
• Bills (59%)
• Bengals (61%)
• Browns (61%)
• Broncos (64%)
• Chargers (70%)
• Cowboys (74%)
• 49ers (91%)
• Chiefs (84%)
• Giants (56%)

NFL Week 4 Slate and Game Times

• Lions vs. Packers (Thursday, 8:15PM ET)
• Falcons vs. Jaguars (Sunday, 9:30AM ET)
• Steelers vs. Texans (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Rams vs. Colts (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Vikings vs. Panthers (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Buccaneers vs. Saints (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Commanders vs. Eagles (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Dolphins vs. Bills (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Bengals vs. Titans (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Ravens vs. Browns (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Broncos vs. Bears (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Raiders vs. Chargers (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Patriots vs. Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Cardinals vs. 49ers (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Chiefs vs. Jets (Sunday, 8:20PM ET)
• Seahawks vs. Giants (Monday, 8:15PM ET)

All times mentioned in this article are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

NFL Week 4 Bye Teams: Who Has a Bye This Week?

All 32 teams are set to play in Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season, which means no team has a bye this week.

NFL Straight Up Picks and Predictions - Week 4

The NFL Week 4 picks straight up in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dimers is the best site for NFL predictions, and our straight up picks are being used by football fans all over the country.

If you choose to use our NFL straight up picks for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Please note that all of the odds and probabilities on this page are subject to change.

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