NFL Picks Straight Up: Week 1, 2023

NFL Week 1 has arrived, and we have used our powerful predictive analytics model to provide you with straight up NFL picks for all 16 games on the slate this week.

Gain the edge in NFL pick ‘em competitions with the help of our data-driven NFL predictions for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, the result of simulating every NFL game over 10,000 times.

There are 16 games on the slate for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, beginning with Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night, and concluding with Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets on Monday.

These Week 1 straight up picks are sponsored by Bet365, which has an awesome Bet $1, Get $200 in Bonus Bets offer for new customers. Simply bet $1 on any of the below NFL picks to secure $200 in bonus bets to use on the rest of the Week 1 NFL slate!

Straight Up NFL Picks - Week 1

Detailed below are the probabilities of each NFL team winning its matchup this week.

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Week 1 NFL action kicks off with the Lions facing the Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday night. Our predictive analytics model projects the Chiefs as having a 69% chance of winning, while the Lions have a 31% win probability.

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs is at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday, September 7 at 8:20pm EDT.

All times mentioned in this article are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints

In this week's game between the Tennessee Titans and the New Orleans Saints, the Saints are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting a 61% chance for the New Orleans Saints. The Tennessee Titans, on the other hand, have a 39% chance of pulling off an upset win.

Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints is at Caesars Superdome on Sunday, September 10 at 1:00pm.

MORE: NFL Super Bowl Predictions and Odds

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

We are picking the Jaguars to win their game against the Colts this week, with our famous NFL model projecting a 71% win probability for the road team. The Colts have a 29% chance of winning at Lucas Oil Stadium.

If you're looking to bet on this clash, Bet365 has the Colts listed as +4.5 underdogs, whilst the Jaguars' moneyline odds are at -210.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts is at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, September 10 at 1:00pm.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings

According to our predictive analytics model, the Vikings are the team to beat in this game, with their win probability at 73%. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have a 27% chance of winning.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings is at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, September 10 at 1:00pm.

MORE: NFL Best Odds

Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have a 78% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Cardinals' 22% chance of victory. This makes the Washington Commanders our pick to win at FedExField.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders is at FedExField on Sunday, September 10 at 1:00pm.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The 49ers are favored to win here, with our predictive analytics model giving them a 63% chance, while the Steelers enter the weekend with a 37% chance of causing an upset at Acrisure Stadium.

When it comes to betting on this game, Bet365 has the 49ers' moneyline odds set at -130, with the home team Steelers listed as +2.0 underdogs.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers is at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, September 10 at 1:00pm.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

After 10,000 simulations of Bengals vs. Browns this Sunday, our model projects the Bengals as the more likely winners with a probability of 60%. Their opponents the Browns have a 40% chance of getting the win at home.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns is at Cleveland Browns Stadium on Cincinnati, September 10 at 1:00pm.

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Our model is picking the Falcons in this game, with the Falcons given a 56% chance of winning, while the Panthers have a 44% chance of an upset win.

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, September 10 at 1:00pm.

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

The next game of Week 1 sees the Texans take on the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

We are predicting the Ravens to win with probability of 79%, while the Texans are projected to have a win chance of 21%.

As for the Vegas betting odds here, Bet365 has the Ravens listed as -10 favorites, with the Texans' moneyline odds posted at +350.

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens is at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, September 10 at 1:00pm.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

The likely winner of this matchup is the Packers who have a projected win chance of 52% according to DimersBOT. On the other side of this matchup, the Bears have a projected win probability of 48%.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears is at Soldier Field on Sunday, September 10 at 4:25pm.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots

We have run our powerful NFL model over this week’s Eagles-Patriots clash 10,000 times, with the Eagles coming out as the team to pick. Of those 10,000 simulations, the Eagles won 6,694 times, with the Patriots winning on 3,306 occasions.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots is at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, September 10 at 4:25pm.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Next up is the game between the Rams and Seahawks, with our model projecting the home team as the more likely victor, with Seahawks rated as a 73% chance of getting the W. The Rams on the other hand are projected to have a 27% chance of winning.

For those interested in betting on this matchup, Bet365 has the Rams' moneyline odds set at +180 for this road game, whilst the hosting Seahawks are listed as -4.5 favorites.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks is at Lumen Field on Sunday, September 10 at 4:25pm.

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Our next straight up pick this week is for the Chargers to get the win against the Dolphins. After running 10,000 simulations of this matchup, the LA Chargers have a win probability of 58%, with the Dolphins at 42%.

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers is at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, September 10 at 4:25pm.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

With a win probability of 65% on Sunday afternoon, our staight up pick for this match is the Broncos, while their opponent, the Raiders, have a projected win chance of 35%.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos is at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, September 10 at 4:25pm.

MORE: NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 1

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

The team to pick here is the Cowboys who have a 65% chance of winning their matchup against the Giants this Sunday night.

Looking at the betting odds for this Sunday Night Football clash, Bet365 has the Giants listed as +3.5 underdogs at home, with the Cowboys' moneyline odds available at -162.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants is at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, September 10 at 8:20pm.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Our pick to win the final game of Week 1 is Bills, who have a win probability of 65%. Their opponents are projected to have a 35% chance of getting the W.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets is at MetLife Stadium on Monday, September 11 at 8:15pm.

NFL Picks This Week Straight Up [Week 1, 2023]

• Chiefs (69% win probability)
• Saints (61%)
• Jaguars (71%)
• Vikings (73%)
• Commanders (78%)
• 49ers (63%)
• Bengals (60%)
• Falcons (67%)
• Ravens (70%)
• Packers (52%)
• Eagles (68%)
• Seahawks (73%)
• Chargers (58%)
• Broncos (65%)
• Cowboys (65%)
• Bills (65%)

NFL Week 1 Slate and Game Times

• Lions vs. Chiefs (Thursday, 8:20PM)
• Titans vs. Saints (Sunday, 1:00PM)
• Jaguars vs. Colts (Sunday, 1:00PM)
• Buccaneers vs. Vikings (Sunday, 1:00PM)
• Cardinals vs. Commanders (Sunday, 1:00PM)
• 49ers vs. Steelers (Sunday, 1:00PM)
• Bengals vs. Browns (Sunday, 1:00PM)
• Panthers vs. Falcons (Sunday, 1:00PM)
• Texans vs. Ravens (Sunday, 1:00PM)
• Packers vs. Bears (Sunday, 4:25PM)
• Eagles vs. Patriots (Sunday, 4:25PM)
• Rams vs. Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25PM)
• Dolphins vs. Chargers (Sunday, 4:25PM)
• Raiders vs. Broncos (Sunday, 4:25PM)
• Cowboys vs. Giants (Sunday, 8:20PM)
• Bills vs. Jets (Monday, 8:15PM)

All times mentioned in this article are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

NFL Week 1 Bye Schedule: Who Has a Bye This Week

All 32 teams are scheduled to play in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, meaning no teams have a bye this week.

NFL Straight Up Picks and Predictions - Week 1

The NFL Week 1 picks straight up in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dimers is the leading NFL predictions site, with our straight up picks becoming a go-to resource for football fans across the country.

If you choose to use our NFL straight up picks for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Please note that all odds and probabilities on this page are subject to change.

More on the NFL

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