NFL Picks: Our Best Props to Parlay in Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs [9/5/24]

The NFL season is here!

It's been a long six-month wait since we last got to watch (and bet on) meaningful NFL action and with the return of the regular season, comes the return of our NFL Primetime Parlay series.

A staple of our NFL content offerings last season, we're once again looking to deliver our best same-game parlay for the nighttime NFL action each and every week.

Every bet and insight featured in these parlays will be source directly from our Dimers Pro data, our all-encompassing subscription service. Available for less than $1/day, Dimers Pro features the best NFL bets, NFL player props, Super Bowl LIX predictions, parlay picks and NFL betting trends analyzed by our in-house cutting-edge predictive models.

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Our +500 Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay Analysis

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following props with value, which we've selected from our NFL Best Propspage after sorting for Ravens vs. Chiefs.

MORE: Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Full Betting Preview

Leg 1: Patrick Mahomes Over 264.5 Passing Yards (-115)

First up is the star of she show, Patrick Mahomes, as he and the Chiefs look to kickstart their quest for a Super Bowl three-peat with a better start than last year's Week 1 loss to the Lions.

While last year's camppiagn did result in the ultimate goal, a Super Bowl victory, the lack of Tyreek Hill was noticeable in the Chiefs' offense. Mahomes threw for his lowest mark, 4,183 total yards, since 2019 when he played just 14 games.

The Chiefs looked to correct that by drafting speedy WR Xavier Worthy out of Texas to pair alongside emerging threat Rashee Rice and established yards machine Travis Kelce.

We project Mahomes for a big night, with a 60.9% probability to go over his line and put up 291 projected yards on Baltimore.

Leg 2: Mark Andrews Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Our second leg is on a veteran tight end who regularly dominates the league, and no it's not Travis Kelce.

Limited to just 10 games last year, Andrews put up 60+ yards in five of those, including in five of his last eight regular season games.

If he's healthy, he's got as much upside as any passcatcher on this team, with three 100-yard games and two nearly 90-yard performances when he played 15 games in 2022.

We project him to clear his 46.5 yards mark with a 56.6% probability and a 53-yard projection.

Leg 3: Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-120)

We close out as we always will, with our TD prop of the night. When we get a good value play, we like to focus on that, but in the absence of any true edges, we look for a solid probability or fair price.

Derrick Henry is the only player we have with over a 50% probability of scoring a touchdown on Thursday night and his odds imply about a 54% probability. 

That's a little over our projection, but it's nearly fair, and if you use the boost below, you'll get value in the odds.

The Ravens brough in Derrick Henry to be the powerhouse back they love but have had trouble getting to stay healthy. IT wouldn't shock us to see even less Lamar rushing action in the redzone than in the past as they look to take some mileage off the QB. Enter Derrick Henry, who even at his career-low 4.2 YPC last season, still found the endzone 12 times.

There you have it, our three picks for tonight's Primetime Parlay - let's cash!

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While we have the best odds displayed for the parlay above, we're also highlighting a sportsbook promo you can use to enhance your experience with this parlay.

Tonight's best promo to use is DraftKings' 50% Ravens-Chiefs boost for the season opener, which you can claim hereor by clicking the image below. 

Ravens vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks

1. Patrick Mahomes Over 264.5 Passing Yards (-115)
2. Mark Andrews Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
3. Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (-120)

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• 2024-25 Preseason Preview: Dimers' early looks at Win Totals and Playoff odds
• NFL Week 1 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 1 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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