NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 5, 2024

As part of our comprehensive NFL betting coverage, Dimers.com provides weekly NFL picks against the spread, and for Week 5 of the NFL season, we've employed our advanced predictive analytics model to deliver NFL spread picks for all 14 games.

With professional NFL picks against spread for each game on the Week 5 NFL slate, our expert predictive model is here to guide you through another huge week of football.

Below, you'll find a detailed breakdown of how likely each team is to cover the spread in NFL Week 5, based on over 10,000 simulations of every game. These NFL predictions for Week 5 show the probability of each team covering the spread in their respective games.

While the picks in this article are based purely on probabilities, it's crucial for bettors to note that the best betting value may come from better odds available elsewhere.

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For more NFL betting coverage, check out the best NFL week 5 odds and our NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

NFL Spread Picks: Week 5, 2024

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The opening game of Week 5 features the Falcons hosting the Buccaneers, with Atlanta listed as a 2.5-point favorite.

After 10,000 simulations of this matchup, our expertly tuned model projects the Buccaneers as having a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the Falcons have a 45% chance.

• Pick ATS: Buccaneers +2.5

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Simulations show an equal 50-50 chance of the Vikings and Jets covering the spread, with our model slightly favoring the Vikings for those looking for a pick against the spread..

• Pick ATS: Vikings -2.5

Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders (-3.5)

The Commanders are listed as -3.5 favorites against the Browns this week.

Our model projects both the Commanders and Browns to have a 50% chance of covering, with the Commanders slightly more likely when looking deep into the numbers.

• Pick ATS: Commanders -3.5

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

Our simulations give the Ravens a 42% chance of covering the +2.5 spread on the road against the Bengals, who have a 58% chance.

• Pick ATS: Bengals +2.5

For those interested in betting on the spread, the oddsmakers have listed the Ravens at -110 to cover and the Bengals at -105.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans (+1.5)

On the road against the Texans, the Bills are 1.5-point favorites.

Our model projects a 52% chance of the Texans covering the spread, while the Bills have a 48% chance.

• Pick ATS: Texans +1.5

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

Our model projects an even 50-50 chance for both the Jaguars and Colts to cover in this matchup, with the Jaguars slightly favored.

The line is set with Jacksonville as 2.5-point favorites at home.

• Pick ATS: Jaguars -2.5

Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5)

In this game at Soldier Field, the Bears are 3.5-point favorites at home.

According to our model, both sides have an equal 50% chance of covering, with the slight lean going to the Bears.

• Pick ATS: Bears -3.5

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-1)

Our model predicts the Patriots to cover the spread in this game, giving them a slight edge in what is essentially a 50-50 projection against the Dolphins.

• Pick ATS: Patriots -1

For those looking to place a bet, the line is set at Patriots -1, with the odds at -105 for the Patriots to cover at home and -110 for the Dolphins to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

Our simulations suggest a 54% chance of Arizona covering the spread, while the 49ers have a 46% chance.

The hosting 49ers are slight favorites with a 7.5-point spread in Week 5 against the Cardinals.

• Pick ATS: Cardinals +7.5

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)

The Broncos enter this matchup as 2.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders.

According to our simulations, both the Broncos and Raiders have a 50% chance of covering, with the Broncos slightly favored for those in against the spread pick contests.

• Pick ATS: Broncos +2.5

For those interested in betting on this line, the Raiders are listed at -105 to cover, with the Broncos at -115.

Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams (+3)

Our model rates both the Rams and Packers as having a 50-50 shot of covering. If you're looking to make a pick here, our slight lean goes to the Rams.

• Pick ATS: Rams -3

New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Both the Seahawks and Giants have a 50% chance of covering the spread on Sunday afternoon.

However, our pick is the Seahawks, who covered the spread in slightly more of the 10,000 simulations we ran for the game at Empower Field at Mile High.

• Pick ATS: Seahawks -6.5

Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

We've run our powerful NFL model 10,000 times for this week’s Cowboys-Steelers clash, and the Steelers -1.5 emerged as the pick to make against the spread.

Of those 10,000 simulations, the Steelers covered the -1.5 line 5,822 times, with the Cowboys covered it 4,178 times.

• Pick ATS: Steelers -1.5

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Our simulations indicate a 54% chance of the Saints covering the spread in this matchup, while the Chiefs have a 46% chance.

This makes the Saints a pick against the spread for the Week 5 game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Saints +5.5

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread:

• Buccaneers +2.5 (55%)
• Vikings -2.5 (slight lean)
• Commanders -3.5 (slight lean)
• Bengals +2.5 (58%)
• Texans +1.5 (52%)
• Jaguars -2.5 (slight lean)
• Bears -3.5 (slight lean)
• Patriots -1 (slight lean)
• Cardinals +7.5 (54%)
• Broncos +2.5 (slight lean)
• Rams -3 (slight lean)
• Seahawks +3 (slight lean)
• Steelers -1.5 (58%)
• Saints +5.5 (54%)

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NFL Week 5 Slate and Game Times

Below is the schedule and start times for each Week 5 matchup, so you can catch every moment of the action.

• Buccaneers vs. Falcons (Thursday, 8:15PM ET)
• Jets vs. Vikings (Sunday, 9:30AM ET)
• Browns vs. Commanders (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Ravens vs. Bengals (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Bills vs. Texans (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Colts vs. Jaguars (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Panthers vs. Bears (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Dolphins vs. Patriots (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Cardinals vs. 49ers (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Raiders vs. Broncos (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Packers vs. Rams (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Giants vs. Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Cowboys vs. Steelers (Sunday, 8:20PM ET)
• Saints vs. Chiefs (Monday, 8:15PM ET)

Week 5 NFL Picks Against Spread

The NFL Week 5 picks against the spread in this article are accurate at the time of publication and may be subject to change.

Football fans across the country rely on our NFL expert picks against the spread because Dimers.com is the best website for NFL predictions.

If you choose to use our NFL spread picks for betting, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities on this page are subject to change.

Conclusion

Our Week 5 NFL picks against the spread start with the Buccaneers +2.5 at a 55% probability on Thursday Night Football, with the week concluding as we pick the Saints +5.5 with a probability of 54%.

For more Week 5 betting tools, explore our NFL odds, NFL prop bets, NFL trends and NFL futures.