NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 4, 2024

As part of our comprehensive NFL betting coverage, Dimers.com provides weekly NFL picks against the spread, and for Week 4 of the NFL season, we've employed our sophisticated predictive analytics model to deliver NFL spread picks for all 16 games.

With professional NFL picks against spread for every game on the Week 4 NFL slate, our expert predictive model is here to guide you through another massive week of football.

Below, you'll find a detailed breakdown of each team's chances of covering the spread in NFL Week 4, based on over 10,000 simulations of each game. These NFL predictionsfor Week 4 show the probability of each team covering the spread in their respective games.

While the picks in this article are based purely on probabilities, it's crucial for bettors to note that the best betting value may come from better odds available elsewhere.

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For more NFL betting coverage, check out the best NFL week 4 odds and our NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

NFL Spread Picks: Week 4, 2024

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (+5.5)

The opening game of Week 4 features the Giants hosting the Cowboys, with New York listed as a 5.5-point underdog.

After 10,000 simulations of this matchup, our expertly tuned model projects the Cowboys as having a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the Giants have a 47% chance.

• Pick ATS: Cowboys -5.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)

Simulations show an equal 50-50 chance of the Colts and Steelers covering the spread, with our model slightly favoring the Colts for those looking for a pick against the spread..

• Pick ATS: Colts +1.5

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

The Packers are listed as -2.5 favorites against the Vikings this week.

Our model projects both the Packers and Vikings to have a 50% chance of covering, with the Packers slightly more likely when looking deep into the numbers.

• Pick ATS: Packers -2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (-6.5)

Our simulations give the Jaguars a 46% chance of covering the -6.5 spread on the road against the Texans, who have a 54% chance.

• Pick ATS: Texans -6.5

For those interested in betting on the spread, the oddsmakers have listed the Jaguars at -105 to cover and the Texans at -115.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

At home against the Saints, the Falcons are 2.5-point favorites.

Our model projects a 54% chance of the Saints covering the spread, while the Falcons have a 46% chance.

• Pick ATS: Saints +2.5

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Our model projects an even 50-50 chance for both the Bears and Rams to cover in this matchup, with the Bears slightly favored.

The line is set with Chicago as 2.5-point favorites at home.

• Pick ATS: Bears -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

In this closely matched game, the Eagles are 2.5-point favorites at road.

According to our model, the Buccaneers have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the Eagles have a 42% chance.

• Pick ATS: Buccaneers +2.5

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers (+4.5)

Our model predicts the Panthers to cover the spread in this game, giving them a 59% chance against the Bengals.

• Pick ATS: Panthers +4.5

For those looking to place a bet, the line is set at Bengals -4.5, with the odds at -115 for the Panthers to cover at home and -105 for the Bengals to cover on the road.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets (-7.5)

Our simulations suggest a 50% chance for either of the Jets or Broncos covering the spread.

Our model's slight lean goes to the Jets.

• Pick ATS: Jets -7.5

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

The Cardinals enter this matchup as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Commanders.

According to our simulations, both the Cardinals and Commanders have a 50% chance of covering, with the Cardinals slightly favored for those in against the spread pick contests.

• Pick ATS: Cardinals +3.5

For those interested in betting on this line, the Commanders are listed at +115 to cover, with the Cardinals at -100.

New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10)

With a probability of 53%, our pick to cover in this game is the Patriots +10. The 49ers, their opponent, have a projected 47% chance of covering the spread.

• Pick ATS: Patriots +10

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2)

The Browns have a 52% chance of covering the spread on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Raiders' 48% chance.

This makes the Browns +2 our pick against the spread at State Farm Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Browns +2

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+7.5)

We've run our powerful NFL model 10,000 times for this week’s Chiefs-Chargers clash, with our model unable to split the two teams at the line.

With the sportsbooks nailing the 7.5-point gap between the teams, our pick is the Chargers to cover, who have a slightly higher probability.

• Pick ATS: Chargers +7.5

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Our simulations indicate a 50-50 chance of both the Ravens and Bills covering in this matchup.

However, the Ravens emerged as the pick in slightly more simulations, making Baltimore our pick against the spread for the Week 4 game at M&T Bank Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Ravens -2.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins (-1)

We are picking the Titans to cover the spread in their game against the Dolphins this week.

According to our trusted NFL model, there is a 52% chance that the road team will cover the +1 line, while the Dolphins have a 48% chance on Monday Night Football.

• Pick ATS: Titans +1

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The final game of Week 4 features the Seahawks taking on the Lions at Ford Field.

We are picking the Seahawks to cover the spread, with a projected 52% chance of covering, while the Lions have a 48% likelihood of covering the spread.

• Pick ATS: Seahawks +3.5

NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread:

• Cowboys -5.5 (53%)
• Colts +1.5 (slight lean)
• Packers -2.5 (slight lean)
• Texans -6.5 (54%)
• Saints +2.5 (54%)
• Bears -2.5 (slight lean)
• Buccaneers +2.5 (58%)
• Panthers +4.5 (59%)
• Jets -7.5 (slight lean)
• Cardinals +3.5 (slight lean)
• Patriots +10 (53%)
• Browns +2 (52%)
• Chargers +7.5 (slight lean)
• Ravens -2.5 (slight lean)
• Titans +1 (52%)
• Seahawks +3.5 (52%)

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NFL Week 4 Slate and Game Times

Below is the schedule and start times for each Week 4 matchup, so you can catch every moment of the action.

• Cowboys vs. Giants (Thursday, 8:15PM ET)
• Steelers vs. Colts (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Vikings vs. Packers (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Jaguars vs. Texans (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Saints vs. Falcons (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Rams vs. Bears (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Eagles vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Bengals vs. Panthers (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Broncos vs. Jets (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Commanders vs. Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Patriots vs. 49ers (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Browns vs. Raiders (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Chiefs vs. Chargers (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Bills vs. Ravens (Sunday, 8:20PM ET)
• Titans vs. Dolphins (Monday, 7:30PM ET)
• Seahawks vs. Lions (Monday, 8:15PM ET)

Week 4 NFL Picks Against Spread

The NFL Week 4 picks against the spread in this article are accurate at the time of publication and may be subject to change.

Football fans across the country rely on our NFL expert picks against the spread because Dimers.com is the best website for NFL predictions.

If you choose to use our NFL spread picks for betting, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities on this page are subject to change.

Conclusion

Our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread start with the Cowboys -5.5 at a 53% probability on Thursday Night Football, with the week concluding as we pick the Seahawks +3.5 with a probability of 52%.

For more Week 4 betting tools, explore our NFL odds, NFL prop bets, NFL trends and NFL futures.