NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 16, 2024

As part of our extensive NFL betting coverage, Dimers.com offers a weekly list of NFL picks against the spread, and for Week 16 of the NFL season, we've harnessed our advanced predictive analytics model to deliver NFL spread picks for all 16 games.

With professional NFL picks against spread for every game on the Week 16 NFL slate, our expert predictive model is here to guide you through another huge week of football.

Below, you'll find a detailed breakdown of each team's chances of covering the spread in NFL Week 16, based on over 10K simulations of each game. These NFL predictions for Week 16 show the probability of each team covering the spread in their respective games.

While the picks in this article are based purely on probabilities, it's crucial for bettors to note that the best betting value may come from better odds available elsewhere.

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For more NFL betting coverage, check out the best NFL week 16 odds and our NFL Week 16 straight up picks.

NFL Spread Picks: Week 16, 2024

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

The opening game of Week 16 features the Chargers hosting the Broncos, with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point favorite.

After 10,000 simulations of this matchup, our expertly tuned model projects the Broncos as having a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the Chargers have a 42% chance.

• Pick ATS: Broncos +3

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Simulations show an equal 50-50 chance of the Chiefs and Texans covering the spread, with our model slightly favoring the Chiefs for those looking for a pick against the spread..

• Pick ATS: Chiefs -3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens are listed as -6.5 favorites against the Steelers this week.

Our model projects both the Ravens and Steelers to have a 50% chance of covering, with the Ravens slightly more likely when looking deep into the numbers.

• Pick ATS: Ravens -6.5

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)

Our simulations give the Bengals and Browns each a 50% chance of covering the spread at Paycor Stadium on Sunday. However, if you need to make a pick, the Bengals get a slight edge.

• Pick ATS: Bengals -8.5

For those interested in betting on the spread, the oddsmakers have listed the Browns at -105 to cover and the Bengals at -108.

New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons (-8.5)

At home against the Giants, the Falcons are 8.5-point favorites.

Our model projects a 51% chance of the Falcons covering the spread, while the Giants have a 49% chance.

• Pick ATS: Falcons -8.5

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (+6.5)

Our model projects a 57% chance of the Bears covering the spread against the Lions, who have a 43% chance.

The line is set with Detroit as 6.5-point favorites on the road.

• Pick ATS: Bears +6.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

In this game at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts are 3.5-point favorites at home.

According to our model, the Titans have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the Colts have a 41% chance.

• Pick ATS: Titans +3.5

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers (+4.5)

Our model predicts the Cardinals to cover the spread in this matchup, giving them a 51% chance against the Panthers.

• Pick ATS: Cardinals -4.5

For those looking to place a bet, the line is set at Cardinals -4.5, with the odds at -110 for the Panthers to cover at home and -110 for the Cardinals to cover on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders (+3.5)

Our simulations suggest a 59% chance of Washington covering the spread, while the Eagles have a 41% chance.

The traveling Eagles are slight favorites with a 3.5-point spread in Week 16 against the Commanders.

• Pick ATS: Commanders +3.5

Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Jets (+3)

The Rams enter this matchup as 3-point favorites on the road against the Jets.

According to our simulations, both the Jets and Rams have a 50% chance of covering, with the Jets slightly favored for those in against the spread pick contests.

• Pick ATS: Jets -3

For those interested in betting on this line, the Rams are listed at -105 to cover, with the Jets at -110.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Our model rates both the Seahawks and Vikings as having a 50-50 shot of covering. If you're looking to make a pick here, our slight lean goes to the Seahawks.

• Pick ATS: Seahawks -3

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-14)

The Patriots have a 53% chance of covering the spread on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Bills' 47% chance.

This makes the Patriots +14 our pick against the spread at MetLife Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Patriots +14

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

We've run our powerful NFL model 10,000 times for this week’s Jaguars-Raiders clash, with our model unable to split the two teams at the line.

With the sportsbooks nailing the 1.5-point gap between the teams, our pick is the Raiders to cover, who have a slightly higher probability.

• Pick ATS: Raiders -1.5

San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins (-1)

Our simulations indicate a 50-50 chance of both the Dolphins and 49ers covering in this matchup.

However, the Dolphins emerged as the pick in slightly more simulations, making Miami our pick against the spread for the Week 16 game at Hard Rock Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Dolphins -1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys (+4)

We are picking the Cowboys to cover the spread in their game against the Buccaneers this week.

According to our trusted NFL model, there is a 52% chance that the home team will cover the +4 line, while the Buccaneers have a 48% chance on Sunday Night Football.

• Pick ATS: Cowboys +4

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers (-14.5)

The final game of Week 16 features the Saints taking on the Packers at Lambeau Field.

We are picking the Packers to cover the spread, with a projected 52% chance of covering, while the Saints have a 48% likelihood of covering the spread.

• Pick ATS: Packers -14.5

Complete List of NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread:

• Broncos +3 (58%)
• Chiefs -3.5 (slight lean)
• Ravens -6.5 (slight lean)
• Bengals -8.5 (slight lean)
• Falcons -8.5 (51%)
• Bears +6.5 (57%)
• Titans +3.5 (59%)
• Cardinals -4.5 (51%)
• Commanders +3.5 (59%)
• Jets -3 (slight lean)
• Seahawks -3 (slight lean)
• Patriots +14 (53%)
• Raiders -1.5 (slight lean)
• Dolphins -1 (slight lean)
• Cowboys +4 (52%)
• Packers -14.5 (52%)

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NFL Week 16 Slate and Game Times

Below is the schedule and start times for each Week 16 matchup, so you can catch every moment of the action.

• Broncos vs. Chargers (Thursday, 8:15PM ET)
• Texans vs. Chiefs (Saturday, 1:00PM ET)
• Steelers vs. Ravens (Saturday, 4:30PM ET)
• Browns vs. Bengals (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Giants vs. Falcons (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Lions vs. Bears (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Titans vs. Colts (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Cardinals vs. Panthers (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Eagles vs. Commanders (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Rams vs. Jets (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Vikings vs. Seahawks (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Patriots vs. Bills (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Jaguars vs. Raiders (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• 49ers vs. Dolphins (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Buccaneers vs. Cowboys (Sunday, 8:20PM ET)
• Saints vs. Packers (Monday, 8:15PM ET)

Week 16 NFL Picks Against Spread

The NFL Week 16 picks against the spread in this article are accurate at the time of publication and may be subject to change.

Football fans across the country rely on our NFL expert picks against the spread because Dimers.com is the best website for NFL predictions.

If you choose to use our NFL spread picks for betting, it's important to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities on this page are subject to change.

Conclusion

Our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread start with the Broncos +3 at a 58% probability on Thursday Night Football, with the week concluding as we pick the Packers -14.5 with a probability of 52%.

For more Week 16 betting tools, explore our NFL odds, NFL prop bets, NFL trends and NFL futures.