NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 11, 2024

As part of our extensive NFL betting coverage, Dimers.com offers a weekly list of NFL picks against the spread, and for Week 11, we've used our sophisticated predictive analytics model to deliver NFL spread picks for all 14 games.

With professional NFL picks against spread for every game on the Week 11 NFL slate, our expert predictive model is here to guide you through another massive week of football.

Below, you'll find a detailed list of how likely each team is to cover the spread in NFL Week 11, based on over 10,000 simulations of each game. These NFL predictions for Week 11 show the probability of each team covering the spread in their respective games.

While the picks in this article are based purely on probabilities, it's crucial for bettors to note that the best betting value may come from better odds available elsewhere.

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For more NFL betting coverage, check out the best NFL week 11 odds and our NFL Week 11 straight up picks.

NFL Spread Picks: Week 11, 2024

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

The opening game of Week 11 features the Eagles hosting the Commanders, with Philadelphia listed as a 3.5-point favorite.

After 10,000 simulations of this matchup, our expertly tuned model projects a 50% chance for both the Eagles and Commanders to cover the spread. If you're looking to make a pick, we recommend slightly leaning towards the Eagles.

• Pick ATS: Eagles -3.5

Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots (+4.5)

Simulations show a 51% chance of the Rams (-4.5) covering the spread at Gillette Stadium, while the Patriots have a 49% chance.

• Pick ATS: Rams -4.5

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins (-7.5)

The Dolphins are listed as -7.5 favorites against the Raiders this week.

Our model projects the Raiders as the more likely team to cover, with a probability of 56%, compared to 44% for the Dolphins.

• Pick ATS: Raiders +7.5

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (+6)

Our simulations give the Packers a 47% chance of covering the +6 spread on the road against the Bears, who have a 53% chance.

• Pick ATS: Bears +6

For those interested in betting on the spread, the oddsmakers have listed the Packers at -112 to cover and the Bears at -105.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions (-13.5)

At home against the Jaguars, the Lions are 13.5-point favorites.

Our model projects a 53% chance of the Jaguars covering the spread, while the Lions have a 47% chance.

• Pick ATS: Jaguars +13.5

Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Our model projects a 52% chance of the Browns covering the spread against the Saints, who have a 48% chance.

The line is set with New Orleans as 1.5-point favorites at home.

• Pick ATS: Browns +1.5

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

In this game at Nissan Stadium, the Vikings are 5.5-point favorites at road.

According to our model, the Vikings have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the Titans have a 47% chance.

• Pick ATS: Vikings -5.5

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

Our model predicts the Steelers to cover the spread in this matchup, giving them a slight edge in what is essentially a 50-50 projection against the Ravens.

• Pick ATS: Steelers +3

For those looking to place a bet, the line is set at Ravens -3, with the odds at -102 for the Steelers to cover at home and -115 for the Ravens to cover on the road.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets (-3.5)

Our simulations suggest a 59% chance of Indianapolis covering the spread, while the Jets have a 41% chance.

The hosting Jets are slight favorites with a 3.5-point spread in Week 11 against the Colts.

• Pick ATS: Colts +3.5

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

The 49ers enter this matchup as 6.5-point favorites at home against the Seahawks.

According to our simulations, both the 49ers and Seahawks have a 50% chance of covering, with the 49ers slightly favored for those in against the spread pick contests.

• Pick ATS: 49ers +6.5

For those interested in betting on this line, the Seahawks are listed at -108 to cover, with the 49ers at -110.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Our model rates both the Broncos and Falcons as having a 50-50 shot of covering. If you're looking to make a pick here, our slight lean goes to the Broncos.

• Pick ATS: Broncos +2.5

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

The Chiefs have a 54% chance of covering the spread on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Bills' 46% chance.

This makes the Chiefs +2.5 our pick against the spread at Levi's Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Chiefs +2.5

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

We've run our powerful NFL model 10,000 times for this week’s Bengals-Chargers clash, with our model unable to split the two teams at the line.

With the sportsbooks nailing the 1.5-point gap between the teams, our pick is the Chargers to cover, who have a slightly higher probability.

• Pick ATS: Chargers -1.5

Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)

Our simulations indicate a 56% chance of the Cowboys covering the spread in this matchup, while the Texans have a 44% chance.

This makes the Cowboys a strong pick against the spread for the Week 11 game at AT&T Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Cowboys +7.5

Complete List of NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread:

• Eagles -3.5 (slight lean)
• Rams -4.5 (51%)
• Raiders +7.5 (56%)
• Bears +6 (53%)
• Jaguars +13.5 (53%)
• Browns +1.5 (52%)
• Vikings -5.5 (53%)
• Steelers +3 (slight lean)
• Colts +3.5 (59%)
• 49ers +6.5 (slight lean)
• Broncos +2.5 (slight lean)
• Chiefs +2.5 (54%)
• Chargers -1.5 (slight lean)
• Cowboys +7.5 (56%)

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NFL Week 11 Slate and Game Times

Below is the schedule and start times for each Week 11 matchup, so you can catch every moment of the action.

• Commanders vs. Eagles (Thursday, 8:15PM ET)
• Rams vs. Patriots (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Raiders vs. Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Packers vs. Bears (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Jaguars vs. Lions (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Browns vs. Saints (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Vikings vs. Titans (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Ravens vs. Steelers (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Colts vs. Jets (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Seahawks vs. 49ers (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Falcons vs. Broncos (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Chiefs vs. Bills (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Bengals vs. Chargers (Sunday, 8:20PM ET)
• Texans vs. Cowboys (Monday, 8:15PM ET)

Week 11 NFL Picks Against Spread

The NFL Week 11 picks against the spread in this article are accurate at the time of publication and may be subject to change.

Football fans across the country rely on our NFL expert picks against the spread because Dimers.com is the best website for NFL predictions.

If you choose to use our NFL spread picks for betting, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities on this page are subject to change.

Conclusion

Our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread start with the Eagles -3.5 as a slight lean on Thursday Night Football, with the week concluding as we pick the Cowboys +7.5 with a probability of 56%.

For more Week 11 betting tools, explore our NFL odds, NFL prop bets, NFL trends and NFL futures.