NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 1, 2024

As part of our extensive NFL betting coverage, Dimers.com offers weekly NFL picks against the spread, and for Week 1, we've utilized our advanced predictive analytics model to deliver NFL spread picks for all 16 games.

With professional NFL picks against spread for every game on the Week 1 NFL slate, our expert predictive model is here to guide you through another exciting week of football.

Below, you'll find a detailed list of how likely each team is to cover the spread in NFL Week 1, based on over 10K simulations of each game. These NFL predictions for Week 1 show the probability of each team covering the spread in their respective games.

While the picks in this article are based purely on probabilities, it's crucial for bettors to note that the best betting value may come from better odds available elsewhere.

Before placing any NFL bets, be sure to explore our full list of NFL best bets and NFL picks with Dimers Pro.

For more NFL betting coverage, check out the best NFL week 1 odds and our NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

NFL Spread Picks: Week 1, 2024

Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

The opening game of Week 1 features the Chiefs hosting the Ravens, with Kansas City listed as a 3-point favorite.

After 10,000 simulations of this matchup, our expertly tuned model projects the Ravens as having a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the Chiefs have a 44% chance.

• Pick ATS: Ravens +3

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Simulations of this year's NFL Brazil game show a 54% chance of the Packers (+-2.5) covering the spread at Corinthians Arena, while the Eagles have a 46% chance.

• Pick ATS: Packers +2.5

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-4)

The Saints are listed as -4 favorites against the Panthers this week.

Our model projects the Panthers as the more likely team to cover, with a probability of 56%, compared to 44% for the Saints.

• Pick ATS: Panthers +4

Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears (-4.5)

Our simulations give the Titans a 68% chance of covering the -4.5 spread on the road against the Bears, who have a 32% chance.

• Pick ATS: Titans +4.5

For those interested in betting on the spread, the oddsmakers have listed the Titans at -122 to cover and the Bears at +100.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

On the road against the Colts, the Texans are 2.5-point favorites.

Our model projects a 56% chance of the Texans covering the spread, while the Colts have a 44% chance.

• Pick ATS: Texans -2.5

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Our model projects a 57% chance of the Cardinals covering the spread against the Bills, who have a 43% chance.

The line is set with Buffalo as 6.5-point favorites at home.

• Pick ATS: Cardinals +6.5

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)

In this game at Paycor Stadium, the Bengals are 8.5-point favorites at home.

According to our model, the Patriots have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the Bengals have a 48% chance.

• Pick ATS: Patriots +8.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Our model predicts the Jaguars to cover the spread in this game, giving them a 59% chance against the Dolphins.

• Pick ATS: Jaguars +3.5

For those looking to place a bet, the line is set at Dolphins -3.5, with the odds at -102 for the Dolphins to cover at home and -115 for the Jaguars to cover on the road.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants (+1.5)

Our simulations suggest a 52% chance of Minnesota covering the spread, while the Giants have a 48% chance.

The traveling Vikings are slight favorites with a 1.5-point spread in Week 1 against the Giants.

• Pick ATS: Vikings -1.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

The Falcons enter this matchup as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Steelers.

According to our simulations, the Steelers have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the Falcons have a 41% chance.

• Pick ATS: Steelers +3.5

For those interested in betting on this line, the Steelers are listed at -112 to cover, with the Falcons at -105.

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6)

With a probability of 53%, our pick to cover in this game is the Broncos +6. The Seahawks, their opponent, have a projected 47% chance of covering the spread.

• Pick ATS: Broncos +6

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

The Raiders have a 58% chance of covering the spread on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Chargers' 42% chance.

This makes the Raiders +3 our pick against the spread at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Raiders +3

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

We've run our powerful NFL model 10,000 times for this week’s Cowboys-Browns clash, with our model unable to split the two teams at the line.

With the sportsbooks nailing the 2.5-point gap between the teams, our pick is the Browns to cover, who have a slightly higher probability.

• Pick ATS: Browns -2.5

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

Our simulations indicate a 59% chance of the Commanders covering the spread in this matchup, while the Buccaneers have a 41% chance.

This makes the Commanders a strong pick against the spread for the Week 1 game at Raymond James Stadium.

• Pick ATS: Commanders +3.5

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions (-3.5)

We are picking the Lions to cover the spread in their game against the Rams this week.

According to our trusted NFL model, both teams are projected to have a 50% chance of covering, with the Lions slightly more likely to do so on Sunday Night Football.

• Pick ATS: Lions -3.5

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)

The final game of Week 1 features the Jets taking on the 49ers at Levi's Stadium.

We are picking the 49ers to cover the spread, as this outcome occurred slightly more often in our 10,000 game simulations.

• Pick ATS: 49ers -4.5

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread:

• Ravens +3 (56%)
• Packers +2.5 (54%)
• Panthers +4 (56%)
• Titans +4.5 (68%)
• Texans -2.5 (56%)
• Cardinals +6.5 (57%)
• Patriots +8.5 (52%)
• Jaguars +3.5 (59%)
• Vikings -1.5 (52%)
• Steelers +3.5 (59%)
• Broncos +6 (53%)
• Raiders +3 (58%)
• Browns -2.5 (slight lean)
• Commanders +3.5 (59%)
• Lions -3.5 (slight lean)
• 49ers -4.5 (slight lean)

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NFL Week 1 Slate and Game Times

Below is the schedule and start times for each Week 1 matchup, so you can catch every moment of the action.

• Ravens vs. Chiefs (Thursday, 8:20PM ET)
• Packers vs. Eagles (Friday, 8:15PM ET)
• Panthers vs. Saints (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Titans vs. Bears (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Texans vs. Colts (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Cardinals vs. Bills (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Patriots vs. Bengals (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Jaguars vs. Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Vikings vs. Giants (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Steelers vs. Falcons (Sunday, 1:00PM ET)
• Broncos vs. Seahawks (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Raiders vs. Chargers (Sunday, 4:05PM ET)
• Cowboys vs. Browns (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Commanders vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, 4:25PM ET)
• Rams vs. Lions (Sunday, 8:20PM ET)
• Jets vs. 49ers (Monday, 8:15PM ET)

Week 1 NFL Picks Against Spread

The NFL Week 1 picks against the spread in this article are accurate at the time of publication and may be subject to change.

Football fans across the country rely on our NFL expert picks against the spread because Dimers.com is the best website for NFL predictions.

If you choose to use our NFL spread picks for betting, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities on this page are subject to change.

Conclusion

Our Week 1 NFL picks against the spread start with the Ravens +3 at a 56% probability on Thursday Night Football, with the week concluding as we pick the 49ers -4.5 with a slight lean.

For more Week 1 betting tools, explore our NFL odds, NFL prop bets, NFL trends and NFL futures.