NFL Divisional Round Playoff Predictions, Betting Odds & Best Bets

After a lopsided Wild Card Weekend, the 2025 NFL Playoffs roll on with the Divisional Round, and this year's lineup of teams is loaded from top to bottom. Between Saturday, January 18 and Sunday, January 19, the Divisional Round features a pair of games each day - one AFC matchup and one NFC matchup each.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions make their 2025 playoff debut after earning first-round byes and will host their respective games on Saturday.

We've consulted our Dimers Pro NFL Playoff Predictions to bring you our best bets, touchdown props, game predictions and more for this weekend's Divisional Round matchups.

RELATED: Dimers' Best NFL Player Props for the Divisional Round

Dimers' NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

The Houston Texans head to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in what we hope will be a high-stakes Divisional Round showdown and not follow the pattern of one-sided contests that made up Wild Card Weekend.

Fresh off a dominant Wild Card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, the Texans will look to ride their momentum into one of the NFL’s most intimidating venues. Houston’s underdog status is reflected in the 8.5-point spread, but they’ve shown resilience under pressure, including in the aforementioned win over the Chargers, where their defense stepped up in clutch moments and intercepted Justin Herbert 4 times. Interceptions were an issue for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes this season and could be the key to the Texans pulling out the upset. He cleaned it up in the second half with 0 picks through his final six games, while Houston averaged 1.8 takeaways per game, tied for the most in the NFL. With the lowest total of the weekend at 41.5, don't be surprised to see some critical turnovers.

The Chiefs (-8.5), well-rested after securing a first-round bye, enter this matchup as heavy favorites with a 77% win probability, though our model gives them just a 43% probability of covering the 8.5-point spread. Patrick Mahomes and company have been virtually unstoppable at home, and the team’s balanced attack and experience gives them an edge in nearly every phase of the game. Kansas City’s defense, which ranked 4th in terms of opponent points allowed this season, will be tasked with containing Houston’s dynamic duo of C.J. Stroud and WR Nico Collins, our model's most-likely Anytime TD scorer.

Dimers' predictive model forecasts a close but decisive 24-17 win for the Chiefs, underscoring their ability to capitalize on both experience and home-field advantage.

Our best bet in this game is on the Texans +8.5, where our 56.5% probability identifies a 4.2% edge against the -110 odds.

Top 3 Anytime TD scorers in KC-HOU:

• N. Collins 39.4%
• J. Mixon 38.7%
• I. Pacheco 35.4%

Super Bowl Win Probabilities and Best Odds:

• Chiefs 16.1% (+350)
• Texans 3.5% (+6000)

Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders

Saturday night’s Divisional Round clash between the Commanders and the top-seeded Lions sets up for a thrilling contest, though Detroit enters as two-score favorites. The Lions, with a 76% win probability and a commanding -9.5 spread, are projected to defeat Washington 32-23, according to Dimers’ predictive model.

Detroit’s offense has been the cream of the crop this season, averaging some of the league’s highest totals per game, though their defense has been susceptible to giving up points in the  back half of the season, allowing 34+ points in three of their final five games. With the over/under set at 55.5, the highest of the weekend, this game could easily turn into a high-scoring affair, especially if the  Jared Goff minimizes turnovers and connects early with his top receivers and their balanced rushing attack, welcoming back David Montgomery, takes over. However, our model projects a 53% probability to go under.

NFL Touchdown Props: Dimers' Top First & Anytime TD Scorers in the Divisional Round

The Commanders (+9.5) are no strangers to overcoming the odds. Last week, they stunned the Buccaneers with a walk-off field goal that doinked off the crossbar, sealing the 23-20 upset. Washington’s defense improved significantly over the course of the year, paying off in the Wild Card by limiting the Bucs to just 284 total yards, and it will need another standout effort to slow Detroit’s relentless attack.

With a +400 moneyline, the Commanders’ path to victory hinges on their ability to capitalize on turnovers and ideally keep the Lions offense off the field as much as possible with sustained drives. Both teams had some of the best ATS records this season, at 12-5 for Detroit and 11-6-1 for the Commanders, who we favor to cover with a 53.3% probability. Playing in a hostile Ford Field environment will add to their challenges, but the Commanders have already displayed they can thrive under pressure in the postseason.

A Washington upset is our best bet in this game, as our 24.3% moneyline probability identifies fair odds of +310 and a 4.3% edge.

Top 3 Anytime TD Scorers in DET-WSH:

• J. Gibbs 59.6%
• D. Montgomery 57.7%
• J. Daniels 47.8%

Super Bowl Win Probabilities:

• Lions 24.0% (+290)
• Commanders 2.9% (+3000)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Los Angeles Rams travel to Lincoln Financial Field for a Divisional Round matchup against the NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles to kick off Sunday's Divisional Round action. The Rams, with a +235 moneyline and just a 29% win probability from our model, look to go back-to-back with an upset in the NFL Playoffs after downing the Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card.

They leaned on their defensive line, which made a nightmare for QB Sam Darnold, sacking him five times in the first half. Against the Eagles, they’ll need to contain the NFL's leading rusher, Saquon Barkley, with a defense that allowed 128.7 rushing yards per game to opposing teams this season. Our model doesn't predict that will happen, giving Saquon Barkley a monster 139-rushing yard projection on Sunday.

However, this game could be closer than that particular mismatch suggests, especially considering Dimers’ predicted score of 24-19 in favor of Philadelphia is notably within the 6.5-point spread for the Rams, predicting this game will be within a touchdown.

The Eagles, favored by 6.5 points, boast a formidable home-field advantage and a balanced roster that has been dominant all season on both sides of the ball. With a moneyline of -270 and a 71% win probability, Philadelphia is projected to advance comfortably if they maintain their usual efficiency, even if our model favors Los Angeles on the spread. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense are well-suited to exploit the Rams’ secondary with a seemingly fully healthy WR duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and their defense has consistently limited opposing offenses to below-average outputs, though they lost star LB Nakobe Dean to injury in the Wild Card round. With the over/under set at 44.5 and our model favoring the under at a 54% probability, this game projects for a defensive battle rather than a shootout.

It's a slim edge, but our model's best bet in the game is for the Rams to cover +6.5, with a 2.0% edge and a 55.5% probability at odds of -115.

Top 3 Anytime TD scorers in PHI-LAR:

• S. Barkley 58.8%
• J. Hurts 55.1%
• K. Williams 51.2%

Super Bowl Win Probabilities:

• Eagles 18.0% (+420)
• Rams 6.5% (+2200)

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sunday night’s matchup between the Ravens and Bills at Highmark Stadium is a battle of heavyweights. Baltimore enters as slight favorites with a -1.5 spread and a 58% win probability, bolstered by last week’s dominant 28-14 win over the Steelers that felt a lot more one-sided than even that score suggests. In that game, Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat abilities were on full display, adding 81 rushing yards to Derrick Henry's mammoth output of 186, while the Ravens’ defense completely stifled Pittsburgh’s offense for three quarters. Jackson's efficiency in the passing game has him featured in our +1396 QB Props Parlay for the Divisional Round.

King Henry gets a 118-rushing yard projection against the Bills 12th-ranked rushing defense from the regular season, and the highest TD probability of any player this weekend, a beefy 70.9%.

On the other side, the Bills are as dangerous as any team with Josh Allen under center. Buffalo responded to the Broncos' opening touchdown of the Wild Card with 31 unanswered points, cruising to a Wild Card victory. Allen’s ability to extend seemingly every play and make key throws under pressure will be crucial against Baltimore’s increasingly aggressive defense. With the over/under set at 51.5, this matchup has the potential to turn into a back-and-forth shootout as both teams sports explosive offensive players and solid, yet exploitable defenses.

Playing at home, the Bills will look to feed off the energy of #BillsMafia as they aim for revenge against the Ravens, who drubbed them 35-10 back in September.

Dimers’ predictive model projects a final score of 26-24 in favor of Baltimore, reflecting just how evenly matched these teams are, while giving the edge to the Ravens with a 53.5% probability to cover and 58.4% probability to win, both coming in as value plays according to DimersBOT.

Top 3 Anytime TD scorers in BUF-BAL:

• D. Henry 70.9%
• J. Allen 50.1%
• J. Cook 42.7%

Super Bowl Win Probabilities:

• Bills 13.3% (+550)
• Ravens 15.8% (+480)

RELATED: Dimers' Best Bets in the NFL Divisional Round

Bet on the NFL Playoffs with Dimers Pro

When betting on the NFL Playoffs this January, Dimers Pro is your go-to resource. Combining advanced analytics with cutting-edge predictive models, Dimers Pro offers everything you need to elevate your game.

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NFL Resources for Playoffs and Super Bowl 59

• NFL Playoff Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Bowl Game and Playoff Matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• Super Bowl LIX: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy this year?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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