NFL Divisional Round: Best Bets - Sunday, January 22

We're 50-24-2 with our NFL best bets since the start of the season, but we're hoping to keep it rolling with our Sunday, January 22 best bets. This is an awesome day of games, as the Cincinnati Bengals face the Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys. Our picks hit at a 67% win rate during the regular season and we went 2-1 in our first weekend of postseason action. And if you don't like what you see here, our predictive analytics model also has some NFL playoffs computer picks that you might be more comfortable following. Either way, we have you covered as we finally hop on the road to the Super Bowl. Let's have ourselves a week! 

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NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Best Bets For Sunday

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills - 3:00PM (ET)

The frightening Damar Hamlin situation was the reason we weren't able to see this matchup unfold a few weeks ago, but we'll finally see these teams competing with one another and the stakes are higher. The winner of this game will go to the AFC Championship Game. The Bengals were in that game a year ago, but the Bills missed out despite having played a remarkable game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, we expect home-field advantage to help Buffalo get the job done, and the group should do it somewhat convincingly. 

Over the last three seasons, the Bills are 7-0 against the spread when playing after a win by three or fewer points. Buffalo has won those games by an average of 15.0 points per game, so this group knows how to respond to lousy performances. And all in all, we trust the Bills offense to be more reliable in this spot. It has gone a bit under the radar, but the Bengals offense is a little broken right now. That won't fly in one of the toughest road environments in football. 

PICK: Bills -5.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

🏈 Bengals vs. Bills Predictions
RELATED: Playoff Analysis for Bengals vs. Bills
RELATED: Props for Bengals vs. Bills Divisional Round Matchup

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Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers - 6:30PM (ET)

BET 1: 

Brock Purdy has been a revelation since being forced into action for the 49ers, but he also hasn't been tested by a great defense. That's going to happen on Sunday, when Mr. Irrelevant goes up against the team with the second-best defensive DVOA in football. That alone is enough to be skeptical of San Francisco, especially in a game in which the team is laying more than a field goal. 

The Cowboys have had an up-and-down year thus far, but we trust Dak Prescott to make more big throws than Purdy. That should ultimately mean that the Cowboys will have a chance to win this one late, and that alone would help Dallas bettors cover. 

The Cowboys also happen to be 13-5 ATS in road games over the last two seasons, and the team is also 6-0 ATS after having allowed 300 or more passing yards in their previous game in that span. That latter situation is one to really watch, as Dallas has won those games by an average of 10.1 points per game. 

PICK: Cowboys +4  (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

BET 2: 

Our model has a slight edge on this game to go Under the total, which is never a bad thing. But the reality is that these are two teams that have run-first offenses, and that's a good start when looking to bet the Under. The Under is also 7-0 when Dallas is playing back-to-back road games since the start of last season, and the average total points scored in those contests was just 38.8 points per game. 

These were the two best teams in the entire NFL when it comes to defensive DVOA this season, so you really shouldn't be surprised that we like the Under. Also, both of these offenses have weaknesses, with the Cowboys probably being one pass-catching weapon short of being great and the 49ers playing an unproven quarterback. That stuff is hard to ignore when you're looking to bet a total. 

PICK: Under 46 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

🏈 Cowboys vs. 49ers Predictions
RELATED: Playoff Analysis for Cowboys vs. 49ers
RELATED: Player Props for Cowboys vs. 49ers Divisional Round Matchup