NFL Contract Incentives in Play for Week 18 Regular Season Finale - Projections, Picks, Best Bets

The NFL will conclude its 18-week regular season this Sunday, January 5, 2025. After a pair of NFL Saturday games, we'll have a 14-game marathon on Sunday, closing out with a potential game of the year, a battle for the NFC North and No. 1 seed between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, recently flexed to Sunday Night Football.

Not every team is playing for such high stakes - most of the playoff races have been sorted out with a few teams still hoping to punch their ticket and far more teams playing for draft position or nothing at all.

However, many individual players have money on the line in the form of contract incentives - predetermined clauses built into their contracts that award them various financial rewards for hitting certain statistical milestones. Others (not named Saquon Barkley) are chasing down NFL records as well.

Identifying these contract incentive situations can unearth profitable betting opportunities, especially when comparing these NFL contract incentives with our Dimers' NFL Predictions, giving us additional insight into how likely each player is to hit their bonus.

All of the data below comes straight from our Dimers Pro insights, offering you daily betting insights, from our NFL Best Bets to player props, trends and projections for over a dozen sports. Coupled with access to our VIP Discord which contains our exclusive NBA and NHL Cheat Sheets, Dimers Pro delivers unparalleled data and insights, now available for 50% off your first month.

With that said, let's dive into some notable Week 18 player performance contract incentives and stack them up against the DimersBOT's prediction.

Week 18 NFL Contract Incentives

Below are the key offensive statistical milestones for the listed players, as well as the DimersBOT projections and best bet (if applicable), sorted alphabetically by team. Incentives via contract details at spotrac.com.

Arizona Cardinals

QB Kyler Murray

Milestone/Bonus: 50 Rush Yards & 1 Rush TD ($750K)

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will be looking to salvage the Cardinals lost season with a $750,000 bonus in Week 18 vs. division rival San Francisco. 600 yards and 6 rushing TDs will trigger his bonus, something he's done together in three games this season, including against these 49ers back in Week 5, and he's done so two other times in his career against the 49ers, several seasons ago. We're projecting Murray for 43 rushing yards with a 39.6% TD probability (fair odds of +150). 

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justice Hill

Milestone/Bonus: 8 Receptions ($250K)

Ravens RB2 Justice Hill has a nice bonus in play in Week 18, but it's going to take a lot for him to hit it. His receptions line is set at 2.5 with the DimersBOT favoring the under at a 57.5% probability. Hill has as many as 6 reception sin two games back in September but has topped out at 5 catches just once (Week 16) since. The Ravens have something to play for, needing a win or a Steelers loss to secure the AFC North so it's unlikely they'll script their RB2 into the game to hit a contract incentive.

Buffalo Bills

TE Dawson Knox

Milestone/Bonus: 8 Receptions & 89 Rec yards ($200K)

Don't expect Dawson Knox to trigger his $200,000 bonus in Week 18. The Bills are set to rest their starters so even if Knox were to get the bulk of the tight end snaps, the Bills are starting Mitch Trubisky who's unlikely to feed a TE1 performance. We presently have Knox below TE3 Quinton Morris in our Week 18 projections.

Cincinnati Bengals

TE Mike Gesicki

Milestone/Bonus: 3 Rec Yards ($125K)

Though he had a volatile year, Gesicki emerged as a reliable target for Joe Burrow throughout the season, and now needs just 3 yards to hit 600 on the season and earn himself $125,000. Automatic? Probably, but he does have four games under 3 yards this season and the Bengal will be focused on one thing - winning to keep their playoff hopes alive. However, we've got him projected for 39 receiving yards, suggesting he should get himself paid in Week 18. With his line set at 28.5 yards, our models like a play on his over for some value.

Denver Broncos

WR Courtland Sutton

Milestone/Bonus: 82 Receiving Yards ($500K)

One of the biggest bonuses out of all of these, veteran WR Courtland Sutton needs an 82-yard game to max out his receiving yards incentive, which awards $500K for reaching 500, 750 and 1,065-yard milestones. He's at 983, putting him 82 away from maxing out this $1.5M incentive. Additionally, he'll earn $500K for 900 receiving yards (done) and if the Broncos rank Top 10 Yards/Pass Attempt, though they are currently 26th (6.4) with the 10th-ranked teams at 7.6 YPA. He's also got a longshot $500K bonus, if he can reach 10 TDs (has 7) and Denver makes the postseason. We've got Sutton projected for 69 receiving yards, but would consider his 80+ yards if you can get it at a plus-money value.

Houston Texans

RB Joe Mixon

Milestone/Bonus: 107 Rush Yards ($250K)

Joe Mixon's late-season slump is looking like it might have put the axe to his $250,000 bonus for hitting 1,100 rushing yards this season. Despite ripping off seven 100+ yard games this season, he ended this year with no more than 26 in three of his final five games, severely hurting his chances to hit this Week 18 when the Texans are likely to limit their starters' workload., with DimersBOT projecting Mixon for just 46 rushing yards vs. the Titans, who held him to just 22 yards in their previous meeting.

Kansas City Chiefs

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Milestone/Bonus: 9 Receptions ($250K), 140 Rec Yards ($250K)

Unfortunately for DeAndre Hopkins' wallet, the Chiefs are locked into the No. 1 overall seed and their starters won't see the field in Week 18. 

Las Vegas Raiders

RB Alexander Mattison

Milestone/Bonus: 8 Receptions ($125K)

The good: Mattison has already earned half of his receptions bonus. The bad: he'll need his best game of the year to cash in on the other half, which earns an addition $125,000 for hitting 40 receptions. He's at 32, and the most he's had in a game this year is 5, once. His line isn't up on the books yet, but given that we're not projecting him to clear 20 yards, it's safe to say we favor the under.

Los Angeles Chargers

RB J.K. Dobbins

Milestone/Bonus: 58 Rush Yards ($150K)

Dobbins' IR stint will ultimately keep him from cashing his full rushing yards ladder bonus, which awards him $150,000 for each 150-yard mark he hits from 600 yards to 1200. Currently at 842, his 900 yards bonus is well within reach, especially against a middling rushing defense by the Raiders. He'll tack on to his already earned $300,000 if he can reach just 58 yards on Sunday, which he's managed five times this season, including in his most recent game. He dumped 135 rushing yards on the Raiders in Week 1 and we've got him for 87 rushing yards in the finale.

New York Jets

TE Tyler Conklin

Milestone/Bonus: 1 Reception ($250K)

Just a single catch will cash our Tyler Conklin on Sunday vs. the Dolphins and you can be sure Aaron Rodgers will try to get his guy paid. Conklin has at least one catch in every game this season and we project him for 37 receiving yards in the finale.

Seattle Seahawks

QB Geno Smith

Milestone/Bonus: 186 Passing Yards ($2M), 69.8% Completion rate ($2M), Win 10th game ($2M)

Geno Smith can get PAID in Week 18 with annual escalators built into his contract for exceeding his 2022 season marks. Within reach are 4,282 passing yards (4,097), 69.75% completion percentage (70.2%) and winning 10 games (9). If he can dimply do what's done for most of the season and guide Seattle to a win against the Rams who are trotting out their backups, Geno will be in the green. The biggest danger is that completion percentage, as he's just a half-percent away from falling below the threshold. We're projecting him for 243 passing yards and a 73% probability of the Seahawks winning the game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Mike Evans

Milestone/Bonus: 5 Receptions & 85 Rec Yards ($3M)

Big Mike has a big payday coming his way if he can tally 5 catches and at least 85 yards to reach 1,000 yards in his final game of the season. He's also looking to up his own NFL record of consecutive 1K yard seasons to start his career, going for 11 straight. QB Baker Mayfield loves his guys and will certainly be trying to help Evans reach this mark. He's got 8 games with at least 5 catches and 4 games with at least 85 receiving yards. We've got him projected for 84, but against the lifeless Saints, he should have a good shot to cash in.

Update: Our latest projections have Evans for 104 receiving yards

Tennessee Titans

RB Tony Pollard

Milestone/Bonus: 83 Rush Yards ($250K), 2 Rush TD ($200K)

If not for missing ap air of games this season, there's a good chance Pollard would have triggered his contract bonuses already. Fortunately for Pollard, he does have a decent spot with the Texans locked into the 4-seed as the AFC South winner, so they may take things easy. Pollard has 7 80+ yard rushing games this season, including a 119-yard outing vs. these Texans, though TDs have not come at a premium for him with just 5 this year. Presently, we projected Pollard for 56 rushing yards and a 45% anytime TD probability, with a 9.7% chance for him to score twice, bettable at +900 or better.

Washington Commanders

TE Zach Ertz

Milestone/Bonus: 9 receptions ($250K), 90 Rec Yards ($250K), 2 Rec TD ($250K)

Veteran tight end Zach Ertz has a trio of $250,000 payouts on the line in Week 18, though he's facing an uphill battle to hit any of them. Aside from the pair of TDs he picked up last week, he has not hit a single one of these marks in any game this season. He gets a projection of 36 receiving yards with just a 1.5% probability to score a pair of touchdowns vs. the Cowboys.

Recap: Week 18 NFL Contract Incentives

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Week 18 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 18 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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