NFL Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Steelers vs. Browns on September 22, 2022

After a bad home loss to the New England Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers will look to get back on track with a Week 3 win over a Cleveland Browns team that suffered a fourth-quarter collapse in a loss to the lowly New York Jets last week. This game will kick off at 8:15PM ET on Thursday, September 22, and the crowd at FirstEnergy Stadium will be fired up for this divisional rivalry.  

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Steelers vs. Browns betting preview below. 

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Steelers vs. Browns Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 69% chance the Browns win on the money line
• 51% probability the Browns cover the -4.5 spread
• 55% Steelers vs. Browns goes Over 38.5 total points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Steelers vs. Browns data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Steelers vs. Browns Analysis

The Spread

The Steelers are coming off of a loss in a game that they have to feel like they should have won. The problem is that Mitchell Trubisky was just 21 for 33 for 168 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and the team needs him to be a bit better than that moving forward.

He might not throw for 300 yards every week, but he needs to do a better job of moving the ball down the field and making defenses pay for loading up the box against Najee Harris. We suspect he'll be a bit better against the Browns. But even if he isn't, this defense should be able to handle Cleveland's offense. 

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Jacoby Brissett hasn't looked bad to start the season, but he isn't a quarterback that should be able to beat the Steelers with his arm — especially with the way Minkah Fitzpatrick and the rest of this Pittsburgh secondary are getting after the football. Knowing that, the Steelers will look to send as many bodies as they can at running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. We expect that will work in allowing Pittsburgh to bite the head off the snake of this offense. 

All in all, this is a game that should be extremely low scoring, which is why the total is set so low here. In a game like this, you'd rather have the team getting the points, so we're going with the Steelers +4.5.  

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The Over/Under

When a total it as low as this one, it can be hard not to take the Over. But we think it's important not to fall for the trap of going with what looks easy. These are two teams with good defenses and below-average passing games, which makes it hard to envision the winner of this one scoring more than 21 or so points. 

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The Under has now hit in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams, and it's also 46-30 in games Pittsburgh has played as an underdog under head coach Mike Tomlin. He'll have his team locked in and ready to defend and this will end up looking like an old school rivalry game. 

Steelers vs. Browns Best Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5

Since Kevin Stefanski took over as head coach of the Browns, the team is 2-11 against the spread when facing AFC North opponents. At the same time, the Steelers are 44-27 ATS when playing as underdogs under Tomlin. Those trends, combined with the way this game will be played, make it hard not to think Pittsburgh +4.5 is the best play in this game. 

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