NFL Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Chiefs vs. Colts on September 25, 2022

The Indianapolis Colts are searching for their first win of the season, but they'll have to really earn it with the 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs coming to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis at 1:00PM ET on Sunday September 25, 2022. Indianapolis hasn't yet won a game this season, but the Colts are better than their 0-1-1 record suggests. They'll look to prove that against a Kansas City team that many believe can win the Super Bowl. 

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Chiefs vs. Colts betting preview below. 

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Chiefs vs. Colts Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 71% chance the Chiefs win on the money line
• 57% probability the Colts cover the +7 spread
• 53% Chiefs vs. Colts goes Under 49.5 total points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Chiefs vs. Colts data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Chiefs vs. Colts Analysis

The Spread

The last time these two teams played, the Colts came away with a 19-3 upset win on the road as 10.5-point underdogs. Indianapolis rushed for 180 yards in that meeting on October 6, 2019, and the Colts also held the Chiefs to just 324 yards of total offense. That was at the peak of Kansas City's offensive powers, as Patrick Mahomes was on his rookie contract and had an All-Star team around him. And while things have changed quite a bit since then, we believe Indianapolis can keep this game close by pounding the rock and being smart defensively. 

Frank Reich is still the head coach of the Colts and he was the one that was on the sidelines in that last upset win. Indianapolis hasn't looked good to start the year, but people had this Colts team pegged as a sleeper before the season and it's only a matter of time before the group puts it together. Look for Indianapolis to lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor and the ground attack, and don't be surprised if we see the very best of Matt Ryan with his team in a must-win situation early in the season. The Colts know they can't afford to be 0-2-1 heading into Week 4. 

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If Ryan can avoid making mistakes and just do his job of spreading the ball around and giving his playmakers a chance, Indianapolis should be able to keep this game extremely close. That's especially true if Michael Pittman Jr. ends up playing. He missed last week with a quad injury and is listed as questionable here. Pittman is one of the best wideouts in the league and he would be in for a big game if he's out there in Week 3. 

For what it's worth, the Colts have one of the best fanbases in the league and this is going to be their home opener. That should give Indianapolis a lot of energy, but it'll be especially helpful on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts also happen to have some studs along their defensive line, so they should do a decent job of disrupting Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game. Whether it's directly sacking him or just getting hands up to deflect some throws, we think Indianapolis' D-Line will show up in a big way here. 

DimersBOT also happens to give the Colts a 57% chance of covering in this game, which is very high for a spread play in our predictive analytics model. 

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The Over/Under

Not only are the Colts 7-1 against the spread in the last eight games in which they were coming off an upset loss, but the Under is actually 5-3 in those games. That generally means that a team knows how to lock in and get itself sorted out on defense after a bad loss, and we're expecting Indianapolis to do just that. Reich is one of the more detail-oriented coaches in the league and he'll have his group ready to go in this one.

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The Under is also 5-1 (and the Colts are 4-2 ATS) when coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse under Reich. That's just another sign of what's to come in Week 3, as Indianapolis is going to look to protect the football and avoid making mistakes. The Colts will do that by feeding Taylor until he's sick in the stomach and that will lend itself to a low-scoring game, as there won't be as many explosive plays as you're used to seeing in Chiefs games. 

Chiefs vs. Colts Best Bet

Indianapolis Colts +7

The Colts are 16-7 ATS when coming off a division game under Reich and they have won those games by an average of 4.5 points per game. Indianapolis is also 9-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Reich, which shows you how often this group rises to the occasion. We expect the Colts to do it again here, which is why our best bet is Colts +7. We also think Indianapolis is worth a sprinkle on the moneyline. 

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