NFL Computer Picks, Best Bets and Analysis For Chargers vs. Chiefs on September 15, 2022

After beating the Raiders, the Los Angeles Chargers get a crack at the Kansas City Chiefs to try and prove that they are the best team in the AFC West. The two will face one another for a little Thursday Night Football at 8:15PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on September 15. 

The Chargers were able to win a one-possession game against a good team last week, so is this the year that Los Angeles takes a step forward by simply finishing games well?

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Chargers vs. Chiefs betting preview below. 

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Chargers vs. Chiefs Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 67% chance the Chiefs win on the money line
• 55% probability the Chiefs cover the -4 spread
• 51% Chargers at Chiefs goes Under 54 total points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Chargers vs. Chiefs data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Chargers vs. Chiefs Best Bets and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

Last week, the Chargers were able to mostly keep a potent Raiders offense in check, but that was a game in which Derek Carr really didn't play a good game. Los Angeles' defense deserves a lot of credit for that, but finding a way to slow down Kansas City is going to be a different beast. The Chiefs were downright unstoppable in their win over the Arizona Cardinals last game, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 360 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. 

The loss of Tyreek Hill didn't appear to do much to weaken the Kansas City passing game, as Travis Kelce had eight catches for 121 yards and a touchdown, while new acquisitions JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling combined to haul in 10 passes for 123 yards.

The status of Los Angeles corner J.C Jackson also happens to make it hard to imagine the Chargers stopping the Chiefs. Jackson could miss this game after having missed Week 1. He's recovering from ankle surgery and the team has him for match-ups like this one. Even if he does play, it's fair to question just how productive he might be after having accumulated some on-field rust. 

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The Chiefs could also run the ball effectively in this game, which would really take some pressure off of Mahomes. Kansas City's offensive line was great against Arizona last week, and both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and rookie Isiah Pacheco looked good running behind it. If the Chiefs are running the ball well, it will be nearly impossible for the Chargers to keep Andy Reid's team out of the end zone. 

This will also be an intriguing challenge for a Chiefs defense that added some talented young players in the offseason. Kansas City absolutely smothered a good Arizona offense last week, so the early signs are good for this unit. We think the Chiefs will do a good enough job on that side of the ball to let Mahomes go win it on the other. That's why we're going with Kansas City. 

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Over/Under Breakdown

The Chiefs just combined to score 65 points in their meeting with the Cardinals and they now face a team with a much better offense. This game has the potential to be the type of shootout you'd expect in a Big 12 match-up, and it should be one of the more fun games to watch this entire season. Kansas City's youth on defense is definitely exploitable, but Los Angeles doesn't have what it takes to stop Mahomes and Co. either. 

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These teams combined to score 62 points in their most recent meeting and it just shouldn't surprise anybody if both of these teams get into the 30's here. The Over is actually 8-5 in games in which the Chargers have faced division opponents under head coach Brandon Staley.

Best Bet: Chargers vs. Chiefs

The Chargers are the sexier pick to win this game, as people are really buying into Herbert's group this year. But the Chiefs looked too dominant to bet against in this spot, so we're rolling with Kansas City to cover the -3. 

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