NFL Computer Picks, Best Bets and Analysis For Bills vs. Rams in TNF on September 8, 2022

The NFL season begins with the defending champion Los Angeles Rams playing as home underdogs against the Buffalo Bills in Thursday Night Football. This one will begin at 8:20PM ET on Thursday September 5, 2022 and will be played at SoFi Stadium, where you'll surely see some of the biggest stars in Hollywood out there pretending they like one of these two teams.

Find out whether we think Buffalo will handle its business against Los Angeles in our Bills vs. Rams betting preview below. 

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Bills vs. Rams Computer Picks

• Predicted score: Bills 27 - 24 Rams
• 59% chance the Bills win on the money line
• 56% chance the Bills cover the -2 spread
• 54% Bills at Rams stays Under 52 total points

For the most up to date NFL computer picks, check out our Bills vs. Rams live predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Bills vs. Rams Best Bets and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

The Bills signed Von Miller during the offseason and they also added cornerback Kaiir Elam and running back James Cook in the draft. For a team that was arguably a a play or two away from winning last year's Super Bowl — Buffalo was unable to come away with a timely stop against the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs, but not many teams in football were playing better all of last year — those additions could change everything. 

The public certainly seems to be high on the Bills this year, as a majority of the action in this game is on Buffalo. And while we do understand how good this Bills team is, we do find that to be a little disrespectful to last year's actual  Super Bowl champions. 

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The Rams are once again one of the league's best teams, especially after having brought in linebacker Bobby Wagner, wideout Allen Robinson and cornerback Troy Hill. All three have the potential to be huge contributors, and Los Angeles will also be aided by a fully healthy Cam Akers in the running game. All in all, the Rams are as dangerous as any team in the league on both sides of the ball — and they seem to even have a healthy Matthew Stafford, who had been dealing with some elbow issues a few weeks back. 

There might not be a team in the league that is more equipped to handle Josh Allen and the high-flying Buffalo offense, as Aaron Donald is a game-wrecking player along the defensive line and will be after the quarterback all night. Meanwhile, Wagner can make plays all over the field, so he'll be there to meet Allen and anybody else who gets by the line of scrimmage. On top of that, the Rams have quite a few corners that can take the Bills wideouts out of this one. Buffalo already might stumble a bit offensively out of the gate, as losing offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the New York Giants was a big deal. 

It should also be noted that the Bills might not be able to cover all of the Rams receiving options in this one. Cooper Kupp is one of the game's best wideouts now, but Robinson still has a lot left in the tank. He's a clear upgrade as the second-option in this passing game, and he should be in for a massive season. That starts with him going off against Buffalo and helping his team pull off the "upset" here. 

Since Sean McVay took over as Rams head coach, his team is 15-5 straight-up and 12-8 against the spread as an underdog.

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Over/Under Breakdown

These teams will both have a lot of success moving the football in this game, but both defenses have enough playmakers to get off the field in big moments. And both offenses could need a little time to get going in the first quarter, as this game will surely have some extracurricular activities that prevent it from getting started on time. Both teams will also need a little time to knock some rust off, and that's especially true of the Rams. Stafford didn't play at all during the preseason, so he'll need to settle in and that helps Under bettors.   

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It also doesn't hurt that both of these teams like to run the football. The Bills will lean rather heavily on the rushing attack this year, whether that's with a stable of backs or Allen himself. Meanwhile, Akers and Darrell Henderson will get their touches for Los Angeles. That will allow the clock to run quite a bit. 

It should also be noted that since McVay took over for Los Angeles, the Under is 4-1 when Buffalo has taken on AFC East opponents. 

Best Bet: Bills vs. Rams

It might be more exciting to back the up-and-coming contender, but the fact that so many people are doing so means that we're getting great value on last year's Super Bowl champions. Considering McVay's group also happened to improve, we're going with the home team and backing the Rams +2.5 (and advise also taking the moneyline).

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