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Buccaneers vs. Cardinals: NFL Predictions for Sunday Night Football on Christmas Day - December 25, 2022
Updated: | First published:
Written by Tony Bellissimo
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals have a combined record of 10-18 heading into this Christmas Day nightcap at 8:20PM ET at State Farm Stadium, but one of these teams still has plenty to play for. Tampa, at 6-8, still leads the lackluster NFC South by a game with three to go but doesn’t control its own destiny. Carolina does heading into its home game against Detroit on Saturday by virtue of its win over the Bucs in the first meeting. The Bucs blew a 17-0 lead against Cincinnati last week to finish winless in five tries against AFC opponents. Arizona, meanwhile, limps into this matchup on a four-game slide.
Find out how we think this one will play out in our Buccaneers vs. Cardinals betting preview.
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Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- No edge on either team to cover the 6.5-point spread
- 74% chance the Bucs win on the moneyline
- 52% probability Bucs-Cardinals goes Under 41.5
For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Buccaneers vs. Cardinals data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Pre-Game Probabilities
Last Updated: 11:45PM, Dec 25
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Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Odds and Betting Lines
Will The Bucs Cover The Spread?
By protecting the football and bringing last week’s first-half production to the desert.
Tampa was in total control against the Bengals before a mistake-filled second half that featured a botched fake punt, and two Tom Brady interceptions. Joe Burrow (four touchdowns) took advantage of short fields as the Bucs allowed at least 34 points for the second week in a row.
Arizona’s offense isn’t capable of blowing up the scoreboard without the injured Kyler Murray and it faces an angry Tampa defense that still ranks in the top 10 after two duds.
Will The Cardinals Cover The Spread?
Down to third-string quarterback Trace McSorley following injuries to Murray (knee) and Colt McCoy (concussion in last week’s 24-15 loss at Denver), the Cardinals will lean heavily on leading rusher James Conner.
McSorley (one) and McCoy combined for three interceptions against the Broncos, so head coach Kliff Kingsbury is going to be more conservative outside of getting the ball to DeAndre Hopkins as much as possible.
Conner has scored touchdowns in five consecutive games after not scoring in any of his first six appearances this season.
Why The Over Will Hit
Something freaky like a defensive or special teams touchdown, or both, will need to happen to keep the scoreboard operator awake.
The Bucs were clicking on offense last week before not taking care of the football. In the first half, Brady orchestrated three scoring drives, including a pair of touchdowns, and another that ended with a missed Ryan Succop field goal try.
As far as the Cardinals holding up some of their side of the bargain, it’ll depend on either McCoy’s health or McSorley’s performance following a full week of first-team practice reps.
Why The Under Will Hit
Tampa ranks 18th in the league in total offense, while Arizona comes in at 22nd and that’s mostly with Murray at the controls.
Kingsbury will want to keep Brady & Co. on the sideline as much as possible and feed Conner as much as the situations allow. In turn, the Bucs, albeit a poor rushing offense, can protect a lead with the combination of Leonard Fournette and emerging rookie Rachaad White.
Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Prediction
Lean: Bucs -6.5
The Bucs are a New Orleans meltdown away from being in third place and haven’t made anything easy on themselves all season. Why should this week be any different? Well, maybe because the Cards have won just once at home and are playing a game that means nothing to them.
Written by
Tony Bellissimo Tony Bellissimo, with over 25 years of sports reporting and editing experience, has earned multiple New York State Press Association awards and oversees sports coverage for 30 high schools and several colleges on Long Island.
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