NFL Betting: Who Will Be the NFL's Most-Improved Team in 2023?

The 2023-24 NFL season is nearly upon us, with preseason beginning to wind down seemingly as quickly as it started. We simply cannot wait for the week-to-week action of the NFL schedule. It’s by far one of the most exciting times to bet on sports all year long and with just 17 regular season games for each team, our opportunities are limited compared to other sports. That’s why we have so much fun diving into NFL futures markets.

Everything from division winner parlays to longshot exact Super Bowl futures results, there are endless ways to bet on the NFL season before it even begins. Some of these markets can give us action from Week 1 through the final whistle of Super Bowl LVIII, while others might even pay off in the early weeks of the season. Either way, we’ve been using the power of our A.I. model’s predictive analytics to identify value in a plethora of NFL markets over the past month and now we’re focusing on a fun one with some really interesting longer odds plays: the NFL’s most-improved team in 2023.

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How Does a Team win Most Improved?

Though it sounds like your usual end-of-season award, this is not an official NFL honor, so much as it is a tangible recognition of a team improving their win total from the year before. Simply put: the NFL’s most improved team is whoever increases their total number of wins by the highest amount compared to the previous season.

In order to identify which teams are the best bets in in this market, we need to isolate who has the best chance to increase their win total. Then, we need to determine what the most likely threshold will be, so we can see which teams have a reasonable chance to achieve this feat. Finally, we look at those teams, their schedules and our model’s season-long projections to find out where we should invest our money. Let’s get started.

Who Has Been the NFL’s Most Improved Team in the Past?

To give us a gauge of what we’re looking for, let’s see which teams have achieved this feat over the past 10 seasons.

SEASON	MOST IMPROVED TEAMS + RECORD	WIN TOTAL INCREASE
2022*	DET Lions (9-8) JAX Jaguars (9-8)	6
2021*	CIN Bengals (10-7) DAL Cowboys (12-5)	6
2020	MIA Dolphins (10-6) CLE Browns (11-5)	5
2019	SF 49ers (13-3)	9
2018	CHI Bears (12-4) HOU Texans (11-5)	7
2017	JAX Jaguars (13-3) LA Rams (11-5)	7
2016	DA Cowboys (13-3)	9
2015	CAR Panthers (15-1)	8
2014	HOU Texans (9-7)	7
2013	KC Chiefs (11-5)	9

*17-game seasons

There’s some interesting stuff in here; If you were to guess, you probably wouldn’t think a team has improved by nine wins three times in just the past ten years, but here we are. Additionally, we see that the largest improvement was less than seven wins just three times, resulting in a tie each time (the past three seasons).

Four times the most improved team was following up a season with a key injury to their quarterback: the 2021 Bengals and Cowboys, 2019 49ers and 2016 Cowboys.

50% of the time, two teams tied for the same increase, including the past three years. That's important to consider as Dead Heat rules would cut the payout by half for each team that was to tie, making the longer odds more appealing in the event that was to happen.

The Week 18 impact: It’s worth noting that in the two years since Week 18 was added to the schedule, three of the teams that tied for the largest improvement – the Cowboys in 2021, and the Jaguars and Lions in 2022 - earned their final win in the added week. However, only 2021 would have been affected, as the Bengals (10-6) were ahead of the Cowboys (11-5) after Week 17.

On average, the most improved team adds 7.07 wins to their total, falling right on the median between five and nine. However, since a seven-win improvement is so difficult to forecast and you can see the threshold has been on the lowest end in the past three seasons, we’ll use six wins as our benchmark.

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Eliminating the Obvious Teams

We’ve got a pool of 32 teams to work from, with odds ranging from the Bears at +210 to the Eagles and Vikings all the way out at +25000. We must narrow down this pool so let’s start by eliminating the teams we know mathematically can’t improve by the required number.

Although we are operating under the “six-plus wins” rule, we’re going to first eliminate teams that fall entirely outside of our 5-9 range. 17 wins is the maximum for any team so even if these teams have it in them to go undefeated in the regular season, right off the bat we can axe the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Vikings and 49ers. The Bengals finished with 12 wins but just 16 games played due to the Damar Hamlin on-field scare. For the sake of argument, we’ll remove them too, as a win in that game would put them over the threshold, and our model gives them a 0.04% chance of 17-0 season anyway.

This brings us to 25 teams. Next, let’s exclude teams that our model projects with the same or fewer wins as last season. These teams either have too steep of a climb to be the league’s most improved or are trending in the opposite direction. This eliminates a large portion of the teams that are left, leaving us with the Jaguars, Browns, Broncos, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Jets, Titans, Raiders, Rams, Colts, Texans, Cardinals and Bears.

Narrowing Down the Field

14 teams make a significantly smaller field than the 32 we started with but let’s go one step further. First of all, let’s toss the Jaguars. No team in the past 10 years that finished with a .500 or better record in the previous season went on to be the league’s most improved. Then, let’s cut the teams that our model projects for an average improvement of less than two wins since our data doesn’t support a significant improvement.

This leaves us with eight teams: the Browns, Broncos, Colts, Texans, Saints, Jets, Rams and Bears, and guess what? Those are the eight teams with the shortest odds by the books. We just reverse-engineered their own process. Now let’s figure out how to take some money from ‘em.

Analyzing the Finalists

Chicago Bears (+210)

2022 record: 3-14

2023 most likely record: 7-10

The Bears are far and away the favorite in this market. With Justin Fields as one of the most popular MVP bets, a new high-end WR in DJ Moore, among other factors, the hype train is rolling with the Bears, If there’s one thing to keep in mind when betting is how much the hype factor raises expectations for a team coming off a season with the worst record in the NFL.

Our model does project Chicago for an improvement, with their most likely record of 7-10 coming in at 17.1% of the time in our simulations. We give them a 32.2% chance of reaching our benchmark improvement of six additional wins and at least a 9-8 record. Our model favors the Bears as well, but the value is not so appealing. If you really think the Bears can come close to pulling this off, you can bet them to finish with exactly 8 or 9 wins, both priced at +600. There’s simply better value in this market.

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Denver Broncos (+425)

2022 record: 5-12

2023 most likely record: 8-9

Denver has a strong chance to hit this mark if they can make last season’s disastrous effort a distant memory. Sean Payton has proven his ability to guide Super Bowl winning quarterbacks to 11+ win seasons but he’ll find his competition in the division a bit stiffer these days with four games against the Chiefs and Chargers. Though they have a talented offensive roster, our model doesn’t project them to even eclipse the .500 mark very easily.

A bounce-back for Russell Wilson and Denver is still in the cards, but their receiver corps just took a hit with Jerry Jeudy carted off with a hamstring injury last week and a largely uninspiring group of offensive skill weapons behind him. With just a 12.5% chance to hit our six-win improvement, they look like a pass in this market with their odds implying a 19.1% chance.

Houston Texans (+700)

2022 record: 3-13-1

2023 most likely record: 6-11

Houston is another franchise on a similar trajectory as the Bears, albeit in the earlier stages. Equipped with their hopeful franchise QB in No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud *and* their hopeful franchise pass-rusher in EDGE Will Anderson, a young workhorse RB in Dameon Pierce and a brand-new head coach in DeMeco Ryans, things could be looking up for the Texans for the first time since the early Deshaun Watson days.

Right off the bat, our model likes the Texans for at least a 3-win improvement just like the Broncos, but they don’t need to climb as high. Their most-likely record of 6-11 comes in just under 19% of the time in our simulations, and they have a 14.1% chance of reaching a 9-8 record or better.

They play only five times against teams who had a winning record last season – the Ravens in Week 1, Jaguars in Weeks 3 & 12, Steelers in Week 4 and Bengals in Week 10. Of their other opponents, only the Jets and maybe Saints are truly expected to be better. If everything breaks right for Houston, they could make some waves in this market, especially if the required wins amount comes out on the lower end.

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Indianapolis Colts (+800)

2022 record: 4-12-1

20223 most likely record: 7-10

The Colts are a tricky one. Though our model projects them to finish with three wins higher than last season, they did have a tie in 2022 so there’s a bit of normal regression cooked in there. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson and upstart new HC Shane Steichen will be fun to watch develop together, but their WR corps is lacking behind Michael Pittman and disgruntled RB Jonathan Taylor will begin the season on the PUP list after not getting traded.

A rookie QB needs reliable talent to lean on and this Colts team may not have enough to offer in that department this upcoming season. They have nearly an identical schedule to the Texans, but do get an easier AFC East matchup against the Patriots.

Our model gives the Colts a 12.2% chance of reaching double-digit wins for a six-win improvement which is actually a slim edge against +800. You can also get exactly 10 wins at +1000 if you think they’re reaching that mark.

New Orleans Saints (+850)

2022 record: 7-10

20223 most likely record: 10-7

It’s a new era in New Orleans with Derek Carr taking the reins under center with the hopes of taking the Saints straight to the playoffs and title contention. The Saints might be in the best position when you look at the big picture and consider ceiling, schedule and overall roster talent. Our model somewhat agrees with them projected for the most wins out of any in this group, finishing with a 10-7 record 17.6% of the time.

They play in a largely cupcake division with the potential bottom-of-the-barrel Buccaneers, the “what are we?” Falcons and the rebuilding Panthers who have basically no one on offense to help rookie QB Bryce Young. Outside of the NFC South, they will play only four playoff teams from last year, and one of them was the Bucs.

We give them an 11% chance of hitting the six-win improvement threshold, but the longer these odds get, the better value they are, even at these low-end probabilities.

New York Jets (+1100)

2022 record: 7-10

20223 most likely record: 9-8

The New York Jets will be even more popular to bet on this year than usual with Aaron Rodgers in town. Like the Saints they have a good (even better) roster, a new QB who is a notable improvement from last year’s ensemble and a 7-10 record to build on. What they don’t have, however, is a division to beat up on. The Patriots may be headed for a bottom-five season, but the Bills and Dolphins are both playoff teams from last year with high-octane offenses. Even if the Jets scrape out a 4-2 record in the AFC East, they have games against last year’s Super Bowl participants, the Chiefs and Eagles, plus playoff teams in the Cowboys and Chargers.

Our model is all over this, projecting them for just a two-win improvement (tied for the lowest here), with just a 5% chance of improving by six wins or more, the lowest based on the value given by the odds by far. Their odds of +1100 imply an 8.3% chance as well, meaning we’re losing about +500 worth of value. Gross.

Cleveland Browns (+1400)

2022 record: 7-10

2023 most likely record: 9-8

Look, the Browns are not fun. They’re not fun to watch, they’re not fun to bet on, they’re not fun to roster in fantasy (except for Nick Chubb). They are just one of those franchises that wades between absolutely stinking it up and playing passable football at best. Despite that, in my own opinion, they’re a decent play in this market. If (and it’s a substantial if) they gel as an offense and Deshaun Watson looks like the franchise QB he was in Houston, there’s no reason they can’t make a run at the AFC North and finish with 12 or 13 wins. But you’re not here for my opinion; you’re here for the data.

They come in at a 9-8 record exactly 18% of the time in our model’s thousands of season-long simulations. They get just a 4.2% chance of eclipsing the six-win improvement mark and securing a 13-win record. For the sake of argument, let’s say the improved win threshold is a five-win mark. The Brownies get a 10.2% chance of doing so, which would make them a play based on the value, but we’re getting into dangerous “Dead Heat” territory and a reduced payout (nuking the value).

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Los Angeles Rams (+1800)

2022 record: 5-12

20223 most likely record: 8-9

The Rams are the one team in this column that fits the “lost season due to injury” mold that has resulted in the following season’s most-improved team three teams in the past decade. For that reason, they make one of the most intriguing plays out of these eight teams, even if our model isn’t projecting them for that significant of an improvement.

Our model gives them a 12.8% chance to reach at least an 11-6 record. Considering that is almost identical the Broncos’ and Colts’ probabilities, yet at substantially better odds. From a mathematical standpoint, this is the highest +EV out of any of these teams, coming in at 7.5% due to +1800 implying a 5.3% probability.

Now, this is not the Rams team that won a Super Bowl two seasons ago. Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey are gone on defense. Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. are gone from offense, as well as veteran offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth. Outside of their division, they play tough playoff teams from last year like the Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys and Bengals. However, if this Rams team is healthy and competitive, they could very well see positive regression to their double-digit win potential and notch 11 or more wins.

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