NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 9 - Anthony Richardson Benched

We have reached the midpoint of the NFL season. After Week 9, the window for teams to make their playoff push narrows significantly and the divisional matchups ramp up.

With the help of our Dimers Pro data that simulates every NFL game every week, we're able to identify betting opportunities, fantasy football sleeper picks and more to get an edge up on the books and leaguemates.

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Without further ado, let's dig into Week 9 of the NFL.  

Tyrone Tracy Seized Giants Backfield, Enters Concussion Protocol 

In the latest edition of "veteran RB overshadowed by younger, more explosive runner," Devin Singletary's usage in the Giants' plodding offense has cratered in recent weeks.

After seeing 15+ touches over the first four weeks, Singletary hit the bench with an injury, opening the door for rookie RB Tyrone Tracy to showcase his talent, and he sure did.

In the past four weeks since Singletary was originally sidelined, Tracy has 20+ touches and over 100 total yards in 3/4 games, including a pair of 120+ rushing yard games. Singletary had 4 and 6 total touches in each of his two games since returning.

Tracy is in the concussion protocol but as of Thursday, October 31, is said to be progressing and was participating in practice with the red non-contact jersey, suggesting he could be ready for Sunday's divisional tilt with the Commanders.

As it stands our model has given Tracy the reigns in Week 9, projecting him for 60 rushing yards, 14 receiving yards and a 34.2% TD probability, the second-highest on the Giants behind Malik Nabers, and a full 10% higher than our next most-likely player, Wan'Dale Robinson. Singletary draws just a 29-yard projection and 21% TD probability.

🏈 New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Full Betting Preview

Diontae Johnson Rejoins the AFC North 

The Ravens love their mid-tier WRs acquired from other teams, and their latest addition to their gauntlet is WR Diontae Johnson form the Panthers. Formerly a Pittsburgh Steeler, Johnson joins his second AFC North team, one with Super Bowl aspirations.

He was the Panthers' leading wide receiver at the hands of Andy Dalton and Bryce Young, scoring all three of his TDs with the former under center. 

His arrival in Baltimore asks more questions than it answers - the Ravens' top passcatcher is Zay Flowers averaging just 3.6 catches per game in a run-heavy offense. So how much volume there is for Johnson to actually thrive remains to be seen.

Presently, Johnson projects for 70 receiving yards, leading the team, but just a 24.6% TD probability, fifth-highest on the team.

On the Panthers side, the likes of Xavier Legette and current IR-occupier Adam Thielen as the top two passcatching options in this offense, which currently has Bryce Young back under center while Andy Dalton recovers from a hand injury. Legette is the most intriguing of the three as Carolina's first-round WR pick from this past draft and 4.39 40-yard dash speed. All three of his touchdowns have come in the redzone, where he leads the team in targets now that Johnson is gone.

Legette draws a 49-yard projection with a 21.6% TD probability making his anytime TD odds a fair play at +370 or better.

🏈 Week 9 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Colts Bench Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco 

The QB saga in Indianapolis continues to be a jumbled mess as the Colts are still searching for an answer after Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement back in 2019.

Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco and last year's draft pick Anthony Richardson have all suited up as the team's "starter" and none have seemed to be the answer.

The latest development in this never-ending story is when Anthony Richardson checked himself out of the Colts' Week 8 game vs/ the Texans, allegedly being too fatigued.

It's not something we've really ever seen before and in the midst of his wildly inconsistent play, completing more than 10 passes just once this season, head coach Shane Steichen benched him for Joe Flacco indefinitely.

Richardson seems like a good kid, but when we bet on football and play fantasy, we're in it to win it and with Flacco under center, that's simply more likely. WRs Michael Pittman  and Josh Downs are effectively invisible with Richardson under center.

In three games with Flacco, Pittman had a touchdown or 100 receiving yards in each. For Downs, at least 60 yards or a touchdown, with both happening twice. The Vikings defense offers a formidable opponent, but here's how we project them Colts passcatchers in Week 9:

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 9 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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