NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 6 of the 2024 Season: Jets Fire Saleh, Bills Break Down

Each week of the NFL season shapes the next more than in any other sport and with so much hype around the weekly NFL schedule, it can be hard to cut through the noise and find out just exactly how you should be betting on these key moments, if at all.

Aided by the power of Dimers Pro, we'll be looking at these storylines each week through the betting lens and how you can use our exclusive NFL data to turn a profit.

Between our NFL Best Bets, NFL player prop picks, best parlay bets, NFL betting trends and futures projections, you'll always have a leg up on the books with Dimers Pro, available for less than $1/day.

Without further ado, let's dig into Week 6 of the NFL.  

Jets fire Robert Saleh, Keep Nathaniel Hackett

The No. 1 story of the week is one that the public probably saw coming more than those close to or within the Jets organization as team owner Woody Johnson brough the hammer down after another disappointing loss, sending head coach Robert Saleh packing, the first time since the 70's the Jets have made a coaching change midseason.

Reports say Saleh went into work for business as usual before he was escorted out after being terminated as head coach. 

The biggest question in all of this, is why Johnson thought firing the defensive-minded Robert Saleh who had been trotting out the league's Top 2 defense, rather than offensive "coordinator" and Aaron Rodgers' best bud Nathaniel Hackett, who's leading the league's worst rushing offense and bottom third in scoring. 

Nevertheless, we look forward.

The Jets will host the Bills on Monday Night Football but our model isn't predicting a new era to begin for Rodgers and Co., giving New York just a 41% win probability and predicting the Bills to cover the 2-point spread with a 56% probability. 

Looking further down the line, the Jets draw a 21.2% probability win the AFC East, identifying fair odds of +370 to win their division over the far more favored Bills at 65.2% from our model.

This is all in the midst of the Davante Adams trade saga, with the Jets one of his rumored landing spots, however, Adams' theoretical arrival doesn't do much for our model, raising their AFC East win probability by just 0.7% to 21.9%with the star WR, and a 1.9% Super Bowl probability.

Former teammates Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.

🏈 Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Full Betting Preview

Rhamondre Benched? Blinked and You Missed It

Update: Rhamondre has been ruled out - see our updated projections for the backfield below.

Heading into Week 5, one notable thing on the mind, particularly if you play fantasy football, was Patriots Head Coach Jerod Mayo openly saying Antonio Gibson would get the start over Rhamondre Stevenson, following the latter's ball security issues with four fumbles this season.

Well, Gibson did start over Stevenson - for about five seconds before Rhamondre went right back into his usual role and ripped off 89 rushing yards and a touchdown, putting in work on my fantasy bench.

Maybe it was the plan all along, or maybe Mayo took one look at Gibson running straight into a defender on his first carry and decided he'd already seen enough.

Presumably, it would be business as usual with Stevenson as RB1, however he did leave the game with a calf injury and didn't practice on Wednesday. Behind Gibson on the Pats depth chart is veteran JaMycal Hasty, who's carried the ball 106 times in his six year career and just five times this season. With the Patriots also deploying rookie QB Drake Maye for the firs time under center, if Stevenson is ruled out, they'll likely lean on Gibson's experience to minimize errors against a Texans defense allowing 142 yards per game over its last three.

We'll update if things change, but here's our backfield projections as they stand, should Stevenson be good to go:

Bills Offense Continues to Seek No. 1 Option

After a fiery start and some silencing of the doubters, the Bills have dropped back-to-back games against top NFL teams.

I wrote about this back in Week 2, with the Bills' passing game needing some clarity after 10 individual players caught a pass in Week 1 and four weeks later, we're still scratching our heads.

With Khalil Shakir out, seven players saw targets in Buffalo's Week 5 loss to Houston, with no one clearing two receptions or six targets. Allen completed just 9 of 30 passes and played through what seemed to be a concussion, giving us no answer in this passing attack.

Perhaps the only thing to take away is that at some point, rookie WR Keon Coleman must be the team's big play guy, as his lone reception on five targets went for a 49-yard TD, his fourth reception (out of 9 all year) that's gone for 24+ yards.

Here's our early projections for the Bills passcatchers on Monday Night Football, and be sure to check our NFL Best props to see if our model is fading any of their receiving props in Week 6:

🏈 Week 6 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Jaguars Backfield Gets a Shakeup

Move over Travis, it's TANK SZN in Jacksonville!

After a horrid start, the Jaguars finally got their first win of the year, saving the job (for now) of Doug Pederson, my preseason pick for "first coach fired."

However, RB Travis Etienne may have seen his hold on the RB1 job wrestled away. Etienne's been solid, but not great through his first two seasons as a pro. His 4.4 YPC so far is up from his 3.8 YPC last year, but Tank Bigsbyis simply outperforming him at every chance.

Outside of Weeks 2+3 when he saw just two total touches, Bigsby has been better than Etienne in every game, rushing for 73, 90 and 101 yards, with a carry of 26 yards or more in each. Last week he picked up his first scored of the year, and also ripped off a 28-yard catch and run.

It's no coincidence they won their first game, and put up nearly double the points they have all year in the game they let Bigsby take the reins. It's hard to go back from that.

Our model isn't prepared to officially pass the torch, but we see an effective split, with a 35% TD probability and 44 rush yards for Etienne (limited practice on Wednesday, too) to Bigsby's 37 rushing yards and 32% TD probability, which bodes better for Tank's upside and gives Etienne virtually no margin for error.

Injury Outlook: Carr, Collins and Jones go Down

A bonus fifth category this week!

We've seen even more notable players go down with injuries in Week 5 so let's take a quick look at the projected impact for these situations.

Derek Carr to miss multiple weeks: The Saints QB sustained an oblique injury on Monday night and New Orleans will turn to 2024 5th-round pick Spencer Rattler under center. Rattler is projected for 164 passing yards, with receivers Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave projected for just 47 and 42 yards each.

Nico Collins lands on IR: After securing a 67-yard touchdown in Week 5, Texans WR Nico Collins left with a hamstring injury and in the span of less than a day, went from "day to day" to landing on IR, meaning he'll miss 4 weeks. The immediate beneficiaries are clear, with WRs Stefon Diggs (40% TD probability) and Tank Dell (35%) in prime position to feast against the Patriots.

Jones Sidelined in London: Off to a great start with his new team, Vikings RB Aaron Jones left early in the London game on Sunday and did not return. The Vikings hit a bye week so he's got time to rest, but if he isn't healthy enough to play in Week 7, be sure to look out for projection for RB2 Ty Chandler.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 6 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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