NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 5 of the 2024 Season: Darnold's Revenge, A "Worthy" WR1

Each week of the NFL season shapes the next more than in any other sport and with so much hype around the weekly NFL schedule, it can be hard to cut through the noise and find out just exactly how you should be betting on these key moments, if at all.

Aided by the power of Dimers Pro, we'll be looking at these storylines each week through the betting lens and how you can use our exclusive NFL data to turn a profit.

Between our NFL Best Bets, NFL player prop picks, best parlay bets, NFL betting trends and futures projections, you'll always have a leg up on the books with Dimers Pro, available for less than $1/day.

Without further ado, let's dig into Week 5 of the NFL.

Vikings, Darnold Take 4-0 Start into London vs. Imploding Jets

We saw a glimpse of mortality from the Steelers on Sunday, leaving the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings as one of two undefeated teams remaining (Chiefs being the other) and this year's most surprising team.

They remain in first place in the NFC North with a one-game lead over the Detroit Lions and will travel to London as 2.5-point favorites over the Jets, who look every bit the mess we thought the Vikings might be.

Sam Darnold has excelled this year in a situation no one outside of maybe the Vikings front office and coaching staff expected him to, due in large part to his career failing to take off when he was with the New York Jets. Now, Adam Gase, who was a disaster of a coach, is long gone, but there absolutely has to be an even bigger fire burning in 4-0 Sam Darnold's heart as he can take his team to 5-0, bury his former team and likely surpass current Comeback Player of the Year favorite and Jets QB Aaron Rodgers in one sweet W.

Our model is currently favoring the Vikings to win at a 61% probability, and expecting some fireworks with a 54.9% probability of the over 40.5 game total. Our current projected final score of 22-19 has the Vikings covering the 2.5 point spread. Our best Vikings-Jets prop bet is for Jordan Addison to score a TD (for the second week in a row) at a 36% probability and +285 odds with a 10.1% edge.

🏈 Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets Full Betting Preview

Jets Backfield Conundrum

Speaking of the Jets' jumbled season, their backfield has become increasingly frustrating for both bettors and fantasy managers alike, and based on what we've seen from this offense, clarity is not to come soon, especially a gains a formidable Vikings front.

Breece Hall started off strong, scoring a TD in his first three games and compiling at least 80 total yards in each game. Meanwhile, fourth-round pick Braelon Allen saw his workload jump in Week 2, seeing 9+ touches in Weeks 2-4, including a 2-TD game in Week 2.

Last week, Hall saw 12 touches to Allen's 9, with just 4 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards to show for it, plodding to an abysmal 0.4 YPC. Allen has simply outplayed Hall from an efficiency standpoint and as things have looked, this will likely become more and more of a backfield rotation, rather than Allen being used to give Hall a rest.

Not what you want to see if you spent a Top 5 draft pick on Breece Hall.

Here's how our model projects this backfield in Week 5 in London:

Fins Down: Dolphins' Turn to Huntley for Spark, Fall Flat

In an effort to get *something, anything* out of their QB play after deploying Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle as their starters in the wake of Tua Tagovailoa's concussion, the 'Fins fell flat.

Huntley completed 14 passes for 96 yards while rushing for 40 yards and a TD. Jaylen Waddle led all receivers with 36 yards.

It's bad, especially if you've got Tyreek Hill or De'Von Achane in fantasy. After a 130-yard explosion in Week 1, Hill has 10 catches fora combined 86 yards since. Achane has 45 yards on the ground over his past two games combined.

At 1-3, they have just a 7.1% probability to claw back and win this division, saved by the fact that the Bills were humbled by Baltimore on Sunday. The Dolphins are so down bad, they are underdogs to the Patriots this week, who we give just a 1.1% chance to win the AFC East, and who we favor with a 53% win probability this week.

Dolphins WRs Jaylen Waddle (left) and Tyreek Hill (right).

🏈 Week 5 NFL Predictions for Every Game

The "New-Look" Kansas City Chiefs - If Ye Be Worthy

It's just about impossible for a 4-0 team to be having a worse start to their season. Outside of a flashy Week 1 win over Baltimore, the Chiefs have had a tumultuous start to their quest for a Super Bowl three-peat.

They barely squeaked by the Bengals with a 51-yard FG as time expired and have watched the turnover bug bite them time and time again, only to escape with wins. But these wins have come at a cost, losing starting RB Isiah Pacheco to a broken fibular in Week 2 before losing No. 1 WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury this past Sunday.

Now, they'll turn to rookie WR Xavier Worthy as their No. 1 receiver, reunited RB Kareem Hunt to lead the backfield and old faithful, Travis Kelce to carve up the middle.

A slow start for Kelce became ancient history as he immediately became the top passing option on Sunday vs. the Chargers once Rice went down, securing 7 of 9 targets for 89 yards and a vintage Travis performance. Worthy saw just 4 targets but made the most of them, hauling in a 54-yard bomb for a TD in the first half. A midseason signing off the street, Kareem Hunt seized the chance to lead the backfield in this reunion, rumbling off 69 yards on the ground and plus a pair of catches on three targets.

The Chiefs offense will run through these three on Monday night when they host the Saints - here's our model's First & Anytime TD probabilities for each:

TD Projections for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 5 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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