NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 4 of the 2024 Season

Early-season NFL madness continued in Week 3 with upsets galore and some eye-raising performances, both good and bad.

Each week shapes the next in the NFL and with so much hype around the weekly NFL schedule, it can be hard to cut through the noise and find out just exactly how you should be betting on these key moments, if at all.

Aided by the power of Dimers Pro, we'll be looking at these storylines each week through the betting lens and how you can use our exclusive NFL data to turn a profit.

Between our NFL Best Bets, NFL player prop picks, best parlay bets, NFL betting trends and futures projections, you'll always have a leg up on the books with Dimers Pro, available for less than $1/day.

Without further ado, let's dig into Week 4 of the NFL.

Unheralded QBs Leading the NFL

There are five undefeated teams in the NFL after three weeks: the Chiefs, Bills, Seahawks, Vikings and Steelers. The QBs leading those teams are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold and Justin Fields, respectively.

Mahomes and Allen are top-tier elite QBs, no question, but Sam Darnold and Justin Fields are effectively reclamation projects that are stepping up to the challenge and getting it done. 

Simply put, Darnold looks great as he's led the Vikings to a stunning 3-0 start as the preseason favorite to come in last. Justin Fields has likely secured the starting job for the rest of the season in Pittsburgh and Geno Smith has been...fine...but the Seahawks are about to hit their tough schedule.

Here's our model's projections for these three unheralded quarterbacks in Week 4:

🏈 Week 4 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Steel City Clamps Down on the AFC North

We're riding this Steelers hype train until it derails. One of the most unexpected results through the first three weeks has got to also be one of the most fun to watch play out as the Pittsburgh Steelers remain undefeated and are already staring down a two-team race in the AFC North.

At 3-0, we presently give the Steelers a 34.7% probability to win the division, up from 24.9% last week when we made them fair odds at +300. Now, they're just +230 on the books.

The look of a man who may never play a snap for Pittsburgh.

The Ravens trail them by two games and are favored by us (42.3%) and the books (+150), but this is getting tighter each week. 

For their Week 4 matchup with the Colts, the Steelers get a 59% win probability from DimersBOT. We favor the Ravens to win their matchup with the Bills and improve to 2-2, but it won't be easy, as we give the Bills a 50% probability to cover the slim spread.

🏈 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Full Betting Preview

Disaster in Dallas

Surely some of us saw this coming. Dallas' rollercoaster seasons are a microcosm of the franchise, perpetually shifting between highs and lows with a consistent air of disappointment.

After a Week 2 drubbing at the hands of the Saints, the Cowboys entered a tough matchup with the Ravens in an early must-win game for both teams. They responded with another flat performances, falling behind 28-6 before mounting a comeback that fell short, all too familiar for the Cowboys faithful.

Now, they enter a divisional tilt with a team that should be worse, but holds the same record, with the threat of last place in the NFC East looming for Jerry's kids.

We make the Cowboys a 70% probability favorite on Thursday Night Football, though we make them barely a 30% probability to climb back into the NFC East race.

Our moneyline prediction for Cowboys-Giants on TNF.

🏈 Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Thursday Night Football Betting Preview

Offensive Rookie of the Year Shakes Up

Speaking of the Giants, rookie WR Malik Nabers continues to climb up the board for Offensive Rookie of the Year, alongside Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels.

After opening at +800 for Nabers and +1200 for Daniels, they're now the two shortest odds on the books, with Nabers at +260 behind Daniels at +155.

Despite having Daniel Jones as his QB, Nabers is making the most of his early rookie opportunities with the Giants, translating his historic numbers at LSU into a 23/271/3 line through three weeks.

Daniels has compiled 5 touchdowns, including 3 on the ground and as well as 171 rushing yards and zero interceptions. Impressive stuff from the pair of young talents.

While we don't project any awards markets at Dimers, we can certainly see how we project these players for Week 4. Let's have a look:

Week 4 Player Projections:

Malik Nabers (Giants)

• Projected rec yards: 62
• Anytime TD probability: 38.5% (bet at +160 or better)
• First TD probability: 8.7% (bet at +1050 or better)

Jayden Daniels (Commanders)

• Projected pass yards: 194
• Projected rush yds: 27
• Anytime TD probability: 38.3% (bet at +160 or better)
• First TD %: 8.0% (bet at +1150 or better)

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 4 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.