NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 3 of the 2024 Season

Week 2 was about as wild as it gets in the NFL, with more 50+ yard touchdowns than we can count, outright upsets and some unprecedented shakeups in the standings.

Each week shapes the next in the NFL and with so much hype around the weekly NFL schedule, it can be hard to cut through the noise and find out just exactly how you should be betting on these key moments, if at all.

Aided by the power of Dimers Pro, we'll be looking at these storylines each week through the betting lens and how you can use our exclusive NFL data to turn a profit.

Between our NFL Best Bets, NFL player prop picks, best parlay bets, NFL betting trendsand futures projections, you'll always have a leg up on the books with Dimers Pro, available for less than $1/day.

Without further ado, let's dig into Week 3 of the NFL.

The Injury Bug Rears Its Ugly Head

If you play fantasy football, odds are you have one of these players on your roster. The injuries to big-name players have been abundant through the first two weeks of the season, and even before.

Christian McCaffrey, ruled out before Week 1, has been placed on IR. Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco sustained a fractured fibula in their Week 2 win over the Bengals and will miss 6-8 weeks at minimum. 

Wide receivers have been hit hard, with A.J. Brown (Eagles), Deebo Samuel (49ers), Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp (Rams), Justin Jefferson (Vikings) and others sustaining injuries that could keep them out for multiple weeks. 

In the wake of player injuries, a void is created and a a void must be filled. Here are some looks at potential beneficiaries on these teams while these stars sit on the sideline:

DeMarcus Robinson (Rams)

Already carving a more substantial role in this offense, DeMarcus Robinson is now the Rams' de facto WR1 with Kupp and Nacua missing multiple weeks. Robinson gets a 32.4% TD probability, the highest for a Rams passcatcher in Week 3, with our fair odds at 210 for the WR.

Jauan Jennings (49ers)

Deebo Samuel is a bit of a Swiss Army Knife for the 49ers, utilized in both the passing and running games. While TE George Kittle and fellow WR Brandon Aiyuk are likely to see a slight uptick in targets, so is WR3 Jauan Jennings.

Jennings has proven himself capable of stepping up in big spots, notably hauling in a clutch touchdown in the Super Bowl. He draws a 34-yard, 26% TD probability vs. the Rams for fair odds of +285 and a 6.0% First TD probability (fair odds of around +1550).

Carson Steele, Samaje Perine (Chiefs)

To make things even murkier in the Chiefs backfield with Isiah Pacheco out for the net two months, Kansas City went and signed free agent RB Kareem Hunt, who spent his rookie year and most of the next with the Chiefs.

For now, Hunt is on the practice squad, which means it'll be rookie RB Carson Steele and veteran RB Samaje Perine getting the touches unless Hunt is activated.

Steele gets a 38% TD probability and a 50-rushing yard projection while Perine draws a 36% TD probability and projections of 33 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards. Steele gets an 8.5% first TD probability while Perine is nearly the same at 8.2%.

🏈 Week 3 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Calamity in the AFC North

Does any team embody its head coach more than the Pittsburgh Steelers? Mike Tomlin doesn't care what anyone thinks about his decisions and coaching style and when these 2024 Steelers hit the field, they don't care about your preseason expectations for them.

Despite scoring just one touchdown through 8 quarters of play, the Steelers sit in sole possession of first place in the AFC North. If not for the Browns' Week 1 win, they'd already have a 2-game lead over the rest of the division.

On the flip side, the Ravens are suddenly approaching panic mode. Yes it's been just two games, but teams that start 0-2 historically have less than a 10% chance of making the postseason, so the wins better start coming quickly for Baltimore.

THE FIRST. PLACE. STEELERS. 👏

Before WK2:

BAL: 44.8%, +120
CIN: 29.3%, +230
PIT: 17.6%, +550
CLE: 8.3%, +550

Now, the preseason favorites in the AFC North are 0-2.

You taking a flier on the Steelers to with our fair odds at +300?

Full #NFL futures: https://t.co/VDd0TCR8k8 pic.twitter.com/r6FBD1Htb6

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) September 17, 2024

As it stands, the Steelers get a 24.9% probability of winning the AFC North, a slim edge with their odds at +350 and our fair price +300, while the Ravens are down a full 11% to win the division since before Week 2.

This week, DimersBOT makes the Steelers the favorite with a 55% probability over the Chargers and if they start 3-0, we'd be surprised to see them any longer than +300 come Monday.

🏈 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers Full Betting Preview

The Saints Go Marching - But Will it Last?

The highest-scoring team through two weeks of the NFL season is none other than the New Orleans Saints. With 91 total points, the Saints have scored a full three touchdowns more than the next highest-scoring teams, the Arizona Cardinals. Their 29 points allowed is a Top 5 mark in the league.

Yes, that includes a near 50-point performance over the hapless Carolina Panthers in Week 1, but the Saints silenced the Dallas crowd with a blowout win over a Cowboys team that while prone to falling flat, looked sharp in Week 1 before being manhandled by New Orleans on Sunday afternoon.

So, are the Saints for real?

If you're a believer in them, the odds are certainly in your favor. Our model identifies New Orleans with a 7.0% probability to win the NFC, while their +3000 odds imply just a 3.2% chance. That's far behind our favorite, the 49ers at 26.5%, but it's hard to ignore the value. 

It might be the last time you see them at that number, depending what happens when they host the Eagles on Sunday. We give New Orleans a 59% probability to win and improve to 3-0.

🏈 New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Full Betting Preview

Panthers Bench Bryce, Fire Up the Red Rifle

It's not a fun conversation to have and it makes you feel for the second-year quarterback, but Bryce Young's draft bust prospects are at an all-time high after the Panthers' latest folly, scoring a measly 3 points against the Chargers in Week 2.

The Panthers have made the decision to bench Young in favor of veteran QB Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle hasn't looked like a starting QB since his tenure in Cincinnati, but his veteran experience is likely to win out long-term. Who knows if we see Bryce Young start another game in a Panthers uniform, or any, for that matter.

Panthers QB Bryce Young has been benched in favor of Andy Dalton.

The line movement respects Dalton's experience at least, with the Panthers opening as 7.5-point underdogs before that line has shortened up to 5.5 since The Benching (sounds like a horror movie when you capitalize it).

We still give the Panthers a sub-50% probability of covering the spread, just 47%. Other notable projections for Panthers playmakers include a 36.4% TD probability for Chuba Hubbard, the highest for Carolina and a 49-yard, 27.8% TD probability for Diontae Johnson, our top projected receiver for Carolina.

🏈 Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Full Betting Preview

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 3 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.