NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 16 - Michael Penix Jr. Gets the Start

Just three weeks of regular-season NFL football remain and every game takes us one step closer to the postseason. That means we've got just 48 total games left to bet on before the end of Week 18, we're in the midst of fantasy playoffs and every game counts that much more. To help guide us through Week 16, we're turning to our in-house predictive model.

With the help of our Dimers Pro data that simulates every NFL game every week, we're able to identify betting opportunities, fantasy football sleeper picks and more to get an edge up on the books and leaguemates.

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Without further ado, let's dig into Week 16 of the NFL.  

Kirk Cousins Gets Benched, Michael Penix Jr. Steps In

The Falcons coaching staff finally saw the same thing we've all been watching for weeks - Kirk Cousins has been the worst QB in the NFL since the end of October. In his past five games, Cousins has one touchdown to nine interceptions along with taking 11 sacks. They just won their first game since November 3 vs. the Cowboys and have scored at least 20 points just once.

The organization has decided to bench the $180M man and turn to first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr.

We don't know exactly what we'll get when Penix takes the reins, but his deep ball ability undoubtedly raises the floor and ceiling for the key passcatchers in the offense, and he'll have a week to get up to speed with the first team offense.

Drake London's been a solid WR but hasn't been able to truly go off, though the biggest winners should be Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts, who are projected for their best games in weeks.

Now, the Falcons face the Giants this week, who despite their immense struggles, have been a stout passing defense, allowing just the 7th-most yards through the air, though they are coming off one of their poorest showings vs. the Ravens.

Here's our projections for the Falcons' passing game this week:

MORE: Falcons vs. Giants Betting Predictions

Montgomery Done for the Season, Jahmyr Gibbs is RB1

The NFL's undisputed best backfield duo has been cut in half. Lions RB David Montgomery has hit IR with an MCL tear and now second-year stud Jahmyr Gibbs should get his first high-volume role since entering the league.

The Lions have largely rotated both backs for each offensive series, and with just backup Craig Reynolds behind Gibbs, this should be far more of a workhorse role.

With the Bears' 26th-ranked rushing defense on tap in Week 16, Gibbs could see upwards of 20 touches en route to RB1 overall fantasy numbers this week. Add in his receiving ability against their middle-of-the-pack defense vs. RBs in the passing game and it's all coming up roses for Gibbs in a critical game for the Lions.

The Gibbs explosion could win some fantasy leagues and possibly help out some TD parlays - here's how the BOT projects him in his increased role vs. Chicago:

• Jahmyr Gibbs Week 16 Projections:

  • 93 Rushing Yards (o/u 85.5)
  • 25 Receiving Yards (o/u 30.5)
  • 65.5% Anytime TD Probability (-190 fair)
  • 17.3% First TD Probability (+475 fair)
  • 24.2% 2+ TD probability (+310 fair)

🏈 Week 16 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Mike Evans Pursuit of 11-Straight 1,000-Yard Seasons Stays Alive

One of the flat-out coolest receiving records in the NFL is Mike Evans' impeccable pedigree of reaching 1,000 yards in every single season he's played in the NFL. That's ten-straight years of 1K or more, hitting it twice with 1,001 and 1,006 yards in 2017 and 2020 respectively. The man is simply a baller. 

An injury stretch that lasted for almost 4 full games put a serious threat in him continuing this elite feat, but since returning, he's got a pair of 100+ yard games, including 159 in his most recent (and toughest test) vs. the Chargers. He now needs 251 yards over his final three games to hit 1K and here's who he'll play and how these passing defense rank:

• DAL Cowboys (21st)
• CAR Panthers (12th)
• NO Saints (28th)

He won't even have to deal with his old nemesis Marshon Lattimore vs. New Orleans, so he's got quite a bit going for him. An average of 83.7 yards per game will get him there this season - DimersBOT projects him for 81.2 on Sunday Night Football vs. Dallas.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 16 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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