NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 14 - Jameis Winston Rises, Isaac Guerendo Projections

We're nearing the home stretch of the NFL season with just five weeks to play. It's the final bye week with six teams off and we are seeing the final division races come down to the wire. As we seek some clarity on Week 14, we turn to our model's NFL Predictions.

With the help of our Dimers Pro data that simulates every NFL game every week, we're able to identify betting opportunities, fantasy football sleeper picks and more to get an edge up on the books and leaguemates.

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Without further ado, let's dig into Week 14 of the NFL.  

Jameis Delivers and Prays for Deliverance

Say what you will about his capabilities as a franchise quarterback, if there's one thing Jameis Winston is consistently doing, it's providing us with elite content and pure entertainment.

As if his pre-snow game interview before Week 12's Browns-Steelers snow game, his delivered once again with his post-game presser following Monday's loss to the Broncos - "I pray for the Lord to deliver me from pick sixes" will go down as an all-time interview quote, right up there with "That's my quarterback!" (IYKYK)

However, that's not all Jameis has delivered. He's brought the Browns offense surging to life after several seasons of the failed Deshaun Watson experiment. Young wideout Cedric Tillman has popped up as a WR2 in the making and Jerry Jeudy, dubbed "just a guy" by former WR Steve Smith has become a must-start in fantasy football.

Just get this - Jeudy is in his fifth season. In the five starts with he's shared with Jameis Winston under center, Jeudy's tallied 15.6% of his career yardage total. That's simply bonkers.

Now, Jameis giveth, and Jameis taketh away. His penchant for gunslingin' deep balls leads to picks and the aforementioned pick sixes. I was winning my fantasy matchup by 0.1 points before he threw his second pick six to my opponent's Denver defense. But that works both ways and is a matchmaker for betting the Over in Browns games, which we project with a 56% probability whey they play Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Here's our projections for the top three Browns passcatchers vs. the Steelers tough defense:

Note: these have been updated to reflect WR Cedric Tillman being ruled out.

MORE: Browns vs. Steelers Betting Predictions

McCaffrey and Mason Go Down, Guerendo Steps In 

The San Francisco 49ers have been one of the NFL's elite teams for the past five years with annual Super Bowl aspirations but they can not get out from underneath the injury bug this year.

The team has other issues but their latest comes at the worst time for them and those banking on a Christian McCaffrey fantasy playoff surge. After making his season debut in Week 10, McCaffrey went down with a PCL injury in last week's humbling loss to Buffalo. He'll miss the rest of the season.

To make things even worse, backup RB Jordan Mason, who filled in well for CMC in his absence, will also hit IR with a high-ankle sprain. That leaves 4th-round draft pick Isaac Guerendo as the de facto RB1, this past week's hottest fantasy football waiver wire pickup.

The 49ers are so thin at RB, they had to sign multiple practice squad reserves in the wake of McCaffrey and Mason's injuries, meaning Guerendo is in line for a big backfield workload vs. the Bears on Sunday in a game the 49ers are playing for pride.

Fortunately for the 49ers, the Bears are bad, and fortunately for Guerendo, their rushing defense is one of their weakest areas. They rank 29th in yard pers carry (4.9) and 25th in yards per game (135.1). They strangely have the best Red Zone defense in the NFL, allowing teams to convert on 40.9% of their trips inside the 20.

The DimersBOT projects a solid day for Guerendo, with room for a big one - see our projections and fair TD odds below.

Issac Guerendo Projections vs. Bears:

• Rushing Yards: 59 
• Receiving Yards: 14
• Anytime TD: 41.4% (fair at +140)
• First TD: 9.7% (fair at +930)
• 2+ TD: 8.1% (+1130)

🏈 Week 14 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Backing the Birds: Ravens, Seahawks In Pursuit of Division Title

It's a two-team race in the AFC North, much the way it's been all season, but as we get down to the wire, there's some value emerging on the Ravens who have been trailing the surprising Steelers all year.

As it stands, Pittsburgh gets a 54.4% probability to win the division crown, sitting at -160 favorites. The Ravens get the remaining probability, 45.6% and are currently +140. That means our model says the odds should be -120 for Pittsburgh and +120 for Baltimore, meaning there's value on the Ravens to chase down the Steelers.

That road begins this week, with the Steelers facing the aforementioned revitalized Browns on Sunday and then the Eagles, with the Ravens getting the cupcake Giants when they return from their Week 14 bye. They'll play each other in Week 16, meaning these teams could be deadlocked with two games to go and the head-to-head series split.

Out West, we've got an even bigger value in an even closer race, one we've highlighted more than once in this column. With the 49ers effectively out of it, our model has shifted its favor significantly to the Seattle Seahawks. 

Just two games separate the first-place Seahawks and last place Niners, with the Rams and Cardinals at 6-6 in between them. Seattle has a tough road with the 9th-hardest strength of schedule remaining, including a pair against NFC West opponents, the Rams and Cardinals, while Arizona has one of the easiest, facing three teams below .500.

Seattle won the first head-to-head with the Cardinals giving them a big edge if they can complete that series sweep. They dropped one to the Rams and one to the 49ers to sit at 2-2 in division play.

Via our NFL Futures predictions, our model projects Seattle with a 47.2% probability to win the NFC West, compared to just 23.3% for Arizona and 20.9% for Los Angeles. That would make fair odds just +110, for a major value.

If you don't buy in to the Seahawks, then don't rush to make this bet - but you won't find +170 odds on a nearly 50% probability favorite this far into the season very often.

Feeling lucky? Parlay them together for a juicy +548 NFL futures play.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 14 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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