NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 12 - Bo Nix Breaks Out, Jones Gets Cut

It was a week of QB craziness as guys like Anthony Richardson defied expectations in spectacular fashion and the Giants officially threw in the towel on the 2024-25 season. As we seek some clarity on Week 12, we turn to our model's NFL Predictions.

With the help of our Dimers Pro data that simulates every NFL game every week, we're able to identify betting opportunities, fantasy football sleeper picks and more to get an edge up on the books and leaguemates.

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Without further ado, let's dig into Week 12 of the NFL.  

Bo Nix Breaks Out - OROY In Sight?

Bo Nix delivered the most impressive performance of his young career, cementing himself as a legitimate QB1 option for fantasy football and possibly a late-season Offensive rookie of the Year Contender. In Week 11, he silenced doubts about his ability to shine as a passer, achieving career-highs across the board: 307 passing yards, four touchdowns, an 84.9% completion rate, and 9.3 yards per attempt. While the matchup was favorable, Nix’s success was especially noteworthy given the limited star power in his supporting cast, aside from Courtland Sutton.

This highlights a crucial step for developing quarterbacks—capitalizing on favorable opportunities. Nix did just that, refusing to let Atlanta's defense off the hook. His ability to deliver in these moments means fantasy managers can rely on him in the late season and as bettors, we can more confidently back players in this offense to hit their marks and find the endzone.

Looking ahead, a Week 12 matchup against the Raiders in a dome looks promising, with our model strongly favoring Sutton in this game and expecting a volume-heavy output from Nix, with a 58.5% he goes over 30.5 passing attempts, leading to sneaky value on the WRs in this offense.

Before we check out the projections, one quick look at the OROY race. Jayden Daniels looked like the runaway favorite as he was as far out as -2000 in the past few weeks. He's still favored, but way down to -400 with Bo Nix lurking at +300. With the next rookie Drake Maye at +2500, this is down to a two-player race.

Daniel Jones Benched, Then Cut 

In the worst-kept tanking secret this century, the Giants benched Daniel Jones to commit to their tank job this season as they look for to secure a top pick in next year's draft, reported on earlier today by Dimers.

What did come as a surprise was their decision to go no with listed QB2 Drew lock, but last year's viral meme sensation, Tommy DeVito, and then this morning's somewhat surprising outright release of Daniel Jones.

Jones' contract made him untradable, but the $20M in dead money the Giants have to eat still raises eyebrows. 

Anyway, what can you expect from a team that's not even trying to win games?

For early-season breakout WR Malik Nabers, he firmly solidifies into boom or bust territory. Perhaps he'll develop a rapport with DeVito and can salvage some legitimate fantasy value, but for now, those starting Nabers will simply have to cross their fingers.

Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy has seen 17+ touches in 5 of his last 6 games since he broke out in Week 5 and there's no reason that shouldn't continue, though we could see his usage pulled back slightly if the Giants want to minimize injury risk in a lost season. For now, here's how we project the Giants' top skill position players in Week 12 vs. the Bucs:

Giants TD Scorers

• Tyrone Tracy Jr. - 36.7% Probability
• Malik Nabers - 35.6% Probability
• Darius Slayton - 23.3% Probability

Giants Pass, Rush, Receiving Projections

• QB Tommy DeVito - 184 Projected Passing Yards
• RB Tyrone Tracy - 71 Rush Yards, 16 Rec Yards
• WR Malik Nabers - 65 Projected Receiving Yards
• WR Wan'Dale Robinson - 41 Projected Receiving Yards
• WR Darius Slayton - 40 Projected Receiving Yards

🏈 Week 12 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Coin Flip Competition in the NFC West

Not the first time we've looked at this division in this article and things haven't changed much since then.

This is the tightest division in the NFL and it's not close. A whopping half-game difference between first and last place heading into Week 12 is nearly unheard of.

Early injuries to the 49ers opened the door and no one ran away with it. Now, you've got some excellent value on the 49ers to win this division, if they can pull it off, which the books do not think they will.

Based on -110 odds, the Cardinals implied probability to win this division is 52.4%, yet we have them at 35.4%. Meanwhile the 49ers are +350, implying a 22.2% probability, revealing a huge difference from our model's 37.1% probability, meaning they should only be +170. The Seahawks are fair at +600 while the Rams should be +660.

Arizona has two games vs. Seattle in the next 3 weeks which will prove pivotal to these standings. The 49ers have just two NFC West games remaining, an effective must-win vs. the Rams who beat them earlier this season in Week 15, and a final week clash with the Cardinals that could very well decide this division.

With the current Wild Card spots occupied by 7-win teams, it's likely that the only path to the postseason for a team in the NFC West is to win the division. No matter who you think makes it, as every team's odds are worse to make the playoffs than to win the division, backing your pick to win the NFC West is the best value.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 12 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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